Team USA - 85, Germany - 65. You knew the US was going to go through a game where the shots weren't falling, every basketball team does eventually. These are the games they've lost in the past but there are two very key differences in this team than in the previous few versions of Team USA, both of which we've covered already but they both warrant mentioning again.
Defense. They're simply smothering the other team. This was the first one that they really needed this type of performance, and they got it. Up by 1 at half, they shut down the Germans in the third quarter and iced the game. No gambling, just a rock solid man to man with great help defense, almost like they're funneling guys to the shot blockers. Essentially they look like Duke, only with good athletes and not overly unlikeable, Cobra Kai types. This is still reason #1 why they are going to win this thing.
If that's reason #1, then 1A is Carmelo. I've said all I can say about the guy already, but this exchange says about all you need to know about what he means to the team:
"The Germans were still within a point before Anthony followed a 3-pointer with a steal a dunk. Elton Brand's follow shot made it 51-43 with 6:41 remaining in the period.
Okulaja made a jumper, but Anthony drilled another 3, Dwyane Wade made a free throw, Johnson had a basket and Chris Bosh converted a three-point play on an alley-oop that extended the Americans' lead to 60-45 with 1:53 left in the quarter."
The Greeks, defending European champs, are up next. Up next on the blog will be a report on that game and a rant about a certain college football team playing it's home games in Eugene. Stay tuned.
Wednesday, August 30, 2006
Sunday, August 27, 2006
A Few Bits and Pieces from the OTHER Writer
Six posts in eight days from Lochi, all covering USA basketball. The man is a machine and can not be stopped; only an attempt made at containment.
A few bits and pieces from around the league, bullet-style!
A few bits and pieces from around the league, bullet-style!
- Interesting pull-together from Chris Sheridan at ESPN right here. He's also covering Team USA, and interviews 21 basketball writers from around the world to get their take on Team USA and whether they'll win the gold. The consensus seems to be that they're certainly looking good, have a great chance to do so and the big test will be against Spain or Argentina (way to go out on a limb, guys). Still worth a read. It is an insider story so you'll need to have a name and password.
- Not sure if you noticed, but the New Orleans/Oklahoma Hornets gave GM Jeff Bower a 5-year extension this week. Kind of a bizarre move. Bower took over in October, meaning he didn't draft Chris Paul, although he did orchestrate the trades for Tyson Chandler and Peja Stojakovic. The Chandler move was nice, but they drastically overpaid for Stojakovic, and you could make the same argument about the Bobby Jackson acquisition. Here's my thing with this move: why? Were other teams banging down the door to sign this guy away from the team? I doubt it. He'd already had one GM stint with New Orleans, this is currently his second shot. I have no problem with the contract length -- if you've got a good front office guy, lock him up -- but I just don't see what he's quite done to justify being considered that yet.
- ... And speaking of GM contracts, can we please just get this over and hand Kevin Pritchard the job? I have this inane fear that Steve Patterson is hoping to have the job himself, which is why it hasn't been given to Pritchard. Let's hope that's not the case.
- I still can't believe that Atlanta gave Al Harrington away for a non-lottery pick. So they'll give Joe Johnson "max" money but they won't pay Al Harrington $9 million per year (which is what he got from Indiana)? What on earth is going on? Billy Knight is seriously starting to give Isaiah a run for his money as "worst GM on the face of the earth". Nice that they're both in the same conference.
- ... And speaking of Indiana, I really like the way they've retooled that team. They've cut some of the fat and become more athletic, two things that any regular reader knows I am huge fans of. Harrington's addition lets them either put him at PF, slide O'Neal over to center and start Danny Granger or go bigger with Jeff Foster in the middle, O'Neal at PF and Harrington at SF. Not to mention that they've also added Marquis Daniels whom will certainly push Jamaal Tinsley for the starting PG position. And by "push", I mean "likely take over". Let's not forget that they've also got Crazy Stephen Jackson on their team. Can you imagine a Daniels-Jackson-Granger-Harrington foursome running the floor? YIKES. They've got a good coach, athleticism all over the floor, high-quality depth but a clear 8-man rotation, shooting, size ... say what you will about Larry Bird's GM skills, he's done a very nice rebound job with this team. I like Indiana to fight for a top-4 seed in the East next season ... and maybe even win the Central.
- Finally, reading recommendation -- and no it's not a book. If any of you aren't reading Paul Shirley on ESPN, you're missing some high-quality stuff. Read one or two of his diaries and you'll be hooked. You can find his most recent chat here, and a column archive here.
That's all for now. I'll turn it back over to Lochi for another hail of columns as Team USA strides to get back on track. Their next game against Germany is at 3:30am PST on Wednesday (the bracket by the way is right here for those interested) , and then it's on to the Final Four for a likely date versus Greece. Let's go, red white and blue!
Shot Fired Across The Bow
USA 113, Australia 73. The big flashing red light is the warning sign to the rest of the world, USA basketball is back on the right track. Yes, I know that it was just Australia, with one legitimate NBA player, but it's how they won that should scare the daylights out of everyone.
This one was all about defense. Don't let the 113 points fool you, the way they played on the other end of the floor was what made this one particularly disturbing to everyone not wearing red, white, and blue. Throughout the last few international competitions, the US has played that overly aggressive man to man and gambled on every pass. Everyone wanted the steal, breakaway, dunk so they could get the ooohs and aaaaahs from the crowd. They would then get eaten alive by teams that would back pick and back door and never turned the ball over with lazy passes. This defense is the same aggressive man, but they don't gamble and they help defend very well. Howard is huge down low and I actually thought Bosh looked good swatting shots away. Bosh might be the first US player I've seen to knock the ball off the rim (legal in international competition). This defense is smothering both on the perimeter and at the rim. They still may be a little vulnerable to those Argentine pick plays, but as long as the guards keep funneling them to Howard or Bosh they should be fine. It's team defense that sets this team apart.
Offensively, I still don't think they have much of an offensive set, but it's getting better. Coach K seems to realize that the two biggest weapons are clearly Wade and Carmelo and they play accordingly. There isn't a player on earth that can stop Wade driving to the basket one on one, and he's been wreaking havoc out there. He either gets to the basket or dishes off to the open man. Carmelo scored 20 again, hit some 3's, mid range jumpers, got to the line, basically the same thing he's been doing all along. Best player in the tournament. Although the guy they see tomorrow night can argue that point.
Germany is up next. Or should I say Dirk is up next. They have nothing special after him and he could go for 50 and make it interesting, but I like our boys big again. I'd still feel better if they had Bruce Bowen to stick on Dirk but whatever.
This one was all about defense. Don't let the 113 points fool you, the way they played on the other end of the floor was what made this one particularly disturbing to everyone not wearing red, white, and blue. Throughout the last few international competitions, the US has played that overly aggressive man to man and gambled on every pass. Everyone wanted the steal, breakaway, dunk so they could get the ooohs and aaaaahs from the crowd. They would then get eaten alive by teams that would back pick and back door and never turned the ball over with lazy passes. This defense is the same aggressive man, but they don't gamble and they help defend very well. Howard is huge down low and I actually thought Bosh looked good swatting shots away. Bosh might be the first US player I've seen to knock the ball off the rim (legal in international competition). This defense is smothering both on the perimeter and at the rim. They still may be a little vulnerable to those Argentine pick plays, but as long as the guards keep funneling them to Howard or Bosh they should be fine. It's team defense that sets this team apart.
Offensively, I still don't think they have much of an offensive set, but it's getting better. Coach K seems to realize that the two biggest weapons are clearly Wade and Carmelo and they play accordingly. There isn't a player on earth that can stop Wade driving to the basket one on one, and he's been wreaking havoc out there. He either gets to the basket or dishes off to the open man. Carmelo scored 20 again, hit some 3's, mid range jumpers, got to the line, basically the same thing he's been doing all along. Best player in the tournament. Although the guy they see tomorrow night can argue that point.
Germany is up next. Or should I say Dirk is up next. They have nothing special after him and he could go for 50 and make it interesting, but I like our boys big again. I'd still feel better if they had Bruce Bowen to stick on Dirk but whatever.
Thursday, August 24, 2006
They Come From A Land Down Under
USA beat Senegal 103-58...blah. Next up is the round of 16 and a game with Australia. Moderately interesting, they have Bogut, but it should be a fairly easy win for Team USA and then it's on to the quarterfinals. I'll have a report on the Australia game on Sunday morning (game is late Saturday night). Hopefully there won't be any more 2 man bachelor parties or news that Brandon Roy has to go in for surgery before then.
Wednesday, August 23, 2006
USA v Italy
That one was close. Team USA beat Italy 94-85, a game in which they trailed by 12 early in the third period and looked to be in serious, serious trouble. That's when Coach K decided that it was time to stop operating as if it was little league, something yours truly has been begging for since the beginning. Considering the recent past of USA basketball, this was refreshing to see. He went with Paul, Wade, LaBron, Carmelo, and Brand almost exclusively. They are the 5 best players, if you're going to go down, go down swinging. They turned it around, ended up seizing control late in the third quarter, and then played terrific in the 4th quarter to seal the victory. Some highlights:
I'm running out of things to say about Carmelo Anthony. 35 points, and the first guy for Team USA in quite a while to sack up. He's not going to let this team lose. His game is perfect for this style of play, we've discussed this before, but more importantly he's taking control when it matters. He hit the dagger 3 at the end of the third quarter to push the lead to 7 and you could see the Italian team drop their heads as it went down.
Wade also played well when they needed him, he's kind of lost in the Melo love fest, but he's been very good. He had 26 points but most importantly he's been the one creating steals on the defensive end and leading to the fast break baskets. His D seems to always start the run. Wade knocks the ball away, next thing you know it's a 3 on 1 with LaBron, Wade, and Carmelo coming at some poor Euro backpedaling and thinking "I'm about to get dunked on...hard". Wade also has been huge on dribble penetration against the zones. Our guys have always struggled with that, but he's been a big factor in breaking it down.
Overall, this one gets a B+. A win over a pretty tough team, the first half was looking like a disaster, but Coach K deserves a lot of credit for realizing it was time to go with his star players and let them get it done. Team USA wins the pool, goes undefeated (unless they lose to Senegal, not happening), and will play either Australia, Brazil, or Lithuania in the first knockout game on Saturday night. Should be fun.
I'm running out of things to say about Carmelo Anthony. 35 points, and the first guy for Team USA in quite a while to sack up. He's not going to let this team lose. His game is perfect for this style of play, we've discussed this before, but more importantly he's taking control when it matters. He hit the dagger 3 at the end of the third quarter to push the lead to 7 and you could see the Italian team drop their heads as it went down.
Wade also played well when they needed him, he's kind of lost in the Melo love fest, but he's been very good. He had 26 points but most importantly he's been the one creating steals on the defensive end and leading to the fast break baskets. His D seems to always start the run. Wade knocks the ball away, next thing you know it's a 3 on 1 with LaBron, Wade, and Carmelo coming at some poor Euro backpedaling and thinking "I'm about to get dunked on...hard". Wade also has been huge on dribble penetration against the zones. Our guys have always struggled with that, but he's been a big factor in breaking it down.
Overall, this one gets a B+. A win over a pretty tough team, the first half was looking like a disaster, but Coach K deserves a lot of credit for realizing it was time to go with his star players and let them get it done. Team USA wins the pool, goes undefeated (unless they lose to Senegal, not happening), and will play either Australia, Brazil, or Lithuania in the first knockout game on Saturday night. Should be fun.
Tuesday, August 22, 2006
Nip/Tuck
Hey look at that, Blazer news, and just the kind they wanted to hear. One guy being part of an assault investigation and another going under the knife. Now that's the Blazer off season I remember, not all this Vegas Vacation stuff about how they may have actually found their impact perimeter player. At the very least they finally gave me something to get pissed off about. Amazing how one messed up day can wreck a fairly positive off season. Let's get to it.
The Marcus Aldridge is going in for arthroscopic shoulder surgery, could be minor, could look like Kerry Wood in there. How very Blazer of them, as usual the front office has no idea what's going to happen. I kind of liked The Marcus when they first drafted him, kind of a more aggressive version of Channing Frye. The injury knock on him was that his knees might not hold up, now he's got shoulder problems to go along with it. Sooooooo you traded up to the #2 pick in the draft to take a younger version of Theo Ratliff. Well done. Look on the bright side, you haven't given him a 4 year contract worth 11 million per yet. It would really suck to be going into camp with a starting 5 of Jack, Roy, Morrison, Z-bo, and Joel. This makes me want to fight a wall. Let's move on.
Speaking of our old friend Z-bo, smooth move. The Fast and The Furious thing down Broadway at 3AM was entertaining to be sure, but this is a potential time bomb. At best he decided to throw a 2 man bachelor party with a couple hookers. That's quite an "at best" scenario isn't it? I'm not even going to get into the worst case scenario, I think we all know what that is.
The question becomes where do you go from here with him. I'm not sure where this leads, they may call up the Knicks and try to unload him and Miles for Frye and Jalen Rose, that would still work and would be a quality move on many levels. Despite this angry rant, I do like what I've seen out of Pritchard so far and if he is the one calling the shots over there and not Subterfuge Stevie then they may have a shot to get some value out of him. I've defended Z-bo in the past but I'm getting dangerously close to the end of my rope.
On a happier note to end things, Team USA looked fantastic in crushing Slovenia. Everyone looked good. They dominated on both ends of the floor, James, Wade, Melo, they all looked like the players we expected them to be. The first quarter was dicey, but I'm not going to complain about one bad stretch. Terrific performance, their best yet. That one gets an A.
The Marcus Aldridge is going in for arthroscopic shoulder surgery, could be minor, could look like Kerry Wood in there. How very Blazer of them, as usual the front office has no idea what's going to happen. I kind of liked The Marcus when they first drafted him, kind of a more aggressive version of Channing Frye. The injury knock on him was that his knees might not hold up, now he's got shoulder problems to go along with it. Sooooooo you traded up to the #2 pick in the draft to take a younger version of Theo Ratliff. Well done. Look on the bright side, you haven't given him a 4 year contract worth 11 million per yet. It would really suck to be going into camp with a starting 5 of Jack, Roy, Morrison, Z-bo, and Joel. This makes me want to fight a wall. Let's move on.
Speaking of our old friend Z-bo, smooth move. The Fast and The Furious thing down Broadway at 3AM was entertaining to be sure, but this is a potential time bomb. At best he decided to throw a 2 man bachelor party with a couple hookers. That's quite an "at best" scenario isn't it? I'm not even going to get into the worst case scenario, I think we all know what that is.
The question becomes where do you go from here with him. I'm not sure where this leads, they may call up the Knicks and try to unload him and Miles for Frye and Jalen Rose, that would still work and would be a quality move on many levels. Despite this angry rant, I do like what I've seen out of Pritchard so far and if he is the one calling the shots over there and not Subterfuge Stevie then they may have a shot to get some value out of him. I've defended Z-bo in the past but I'm getting dangerously close to the end of my rope.
On a happier note to end things, Team USA looked fantastic in crushing Slovenia. Everyone looked good. They dominated on both ends of the floor, James, Wade, Melo, they all looked like the players we expected them to be. The first quarter was dicey, but I'm not going to complain about one bad stretch. Terrific performance, their best yet. That one gets an A.
Sunday, August 20, 2006
USA v China
Tivo is a wonderful thing. I would have been quite bored by that one if it hadn't been for the wonders of Tivo. Overall, that was a much better performance by Team USA. Total domination from the opening tip, they won 121-90 and it really wasn't that close. A few highlights:
Melo. The best player on the floor again. Easily the best player in the tournament so far as well. His versatility and aggressiveness on both ends of the floor are exactly what this team needs. His play is the main reason why I believe the US will win this thing.
Chris Paul. He was terrific last night. Dribble penetration, much more in control on the fast break, and finally took some open jumpers and knocked them down. When the US was building its lead, it was pretty much the Paul and Melo show.
Wade. Paul and Melo built the early lead but it was Wade that closed the show at the end of the first half and iced the game. He scored the last 11 points of the half and looked much better than he did in the first game. However, some of that might be due to the China guards being terrible.
Grading this game, I'd give them a B+. The second half they came out and mailed it in, allowing China to score the first 10 points, but that only pulled them within about 15 points and it was never really in doubt. Our boys take today off and play again tomorrow against Slovenia, a moderately dangerous team, should be a decent test.
Melo. The best player on the floor again. Easily the best player in the tournament so far as well. His versatility and aggressiveness on both ends of the floor are exactly what this team needs. His play is the main reason why I believe the US will win this thing.
Chris Paul. He was terrific last night. Dribble penetration, much more in control on the fast break, and finally took some open jumpers and knocked them down. When the US was building its lead, it was pretty much the Paul and Melo show.
Wade. Paul and Melo built the early lead but it was Wade that closed the show at the end of the first half and iced the game. He scored the last 11 points of the half and looked much better than he did in the first game. However, some of that might be due to the China guards being terrible.
Grading this game, I'd give them a B+. The second half they came out and mailed it in, allowing China to score the first 10 points, but that only pulled them within about 15 points and it was never really in doubt. Our boys take today off and play again tomorrow against Slovenia, a moderately dangerous team, should be a decent test.
Saturday, August 19, 2006
Too Much Sake
The 2006 version of Team USA won it's first game of the World Championships by beating Puerto Rico 111-100. That's about the nicest thing I'm going to say about it, but I wanted to get that out of the way early. My overall impression is that Coach K needs to stop treating this thing like it's little league where everyone has to play a certain amount of minutes. Antawn Jamison starts over Dwayne Wade? Um...ok. He was making substitutions at what seemed like every dead ball in the first half, Puerto Rico took advantage of the lack of rhythm on Team USA's part and controlled the entire first half. Luckily, Coach K woke up and got his real team on the floor for the second half and they cruised. They never were threatened all that much in the second half, but they are going to have to play their best players together for heavy minutes if they're going to beat good teams next week.
The US team is also going to have to think about altering it's offensive strategy. Carmelo Anthony might rival Dirk and Manu as the best players in the world at this type of game. He had 21 last night and was the difference maker out there. The offense needs to run through him, as it is right now, they don't really have much of a half court offense. All of their big runs are generated by steals and transition baskets. They still struggle with outside shooting at times, the first half was a brick fest last night. However there are signs of life, Heinrich and Paul are both very solid point guards, I'm fine with either one out there. Heinrich had 15 points and when they actually swung the ball against the zone he'd bury a 3. Paul had 11 points, 9 assists, and 5 steals. Labron and Wade were good, but I'm starting to wonder if the international game is going to be tough on them. Joe Johnson also needs to play a little more when they're going zone, he hit some dagger 3's last night and i don't see why they can't park him in the corner and have him gun against those 2-3 and matchup zones.
Defensively, I haven't made up my mind yet about this. I like the pressure man to man because they clearly need those big transition runs to be a powerhouse team. The problem will be that when they play teams like Argentina or Spain they're going to get back picked and back doored to death. Seeing Duke play about 1,000 times over the years, it seems unlikely that they will ever go to any kind of zone, but I don't know how anyone would score against one with those players out there. The Bruce Bowen cut could be the death of this team, not enough has been made of this, but it would have been nice to have him on Arroyo when he was going off last night. Battier's a nice player, but they need a lock down stopper, they had one and they cut him.
One final note, the refs are high, high comedy. They call random technical fouls on nobody, they'll blow the whistle and then huddle together and then go with "foul on the USA, 2 shots" and everyone will kind of look around like "who was it on?" only to get no response, it's just a monstrosity out there.
Reading ESPN it seems as if everyone is giving them a grade. Well, I'd give them a C. I'll have a review of the game against China coming up tomorrow, but that game is on at 3:30 in the AM so it would either be the drunkest review of a game ever, or I'll catch it on tivo tomorrow morning. Until then, USA USA USA!!!
The US team is also going to have to think about altering it's offensive strategy. Carmelo Anthony might rival Dirk and Manu as the best players in the world at this type of game. He had 21 last night and was the difference maker out there. The offense needs to run through him, as it is right now, they don't really have much of a half court offense. All of their big runs are generated by steals and transition baskets. They still struggle with outside shooting at times, the first half was a brick fest last night. However there are signs of life, Heinrich and Paul are both very solid point guards, I'm fine with either one out there. Heinrich had 15 points and when they actually swung the ball against the zone he'd bury a 3. Paul had 11 points, 9 assists, and 5 steals. Labron and Wade were good, but I'm starting to wonder if the international game is going to be tough on them. Joe Johnson also needs to play a little more when they're going zone, he hit some dagger 3's last night and i don't see why they can't park him in the corner and have him gun against those 2-3 and matchup zones.
Defensively, I haven't made up my mind yet about this. I like the pressure man to man because they clearly need those big transition runs to be a powerhouse team. The problem will be that when they play teams like Argentina or Spain they're going to get back picked and back doored to death. Seeing Duke play about 1,000 times over the years, it seems unlikely that they will ever go to any kind of zone, but I don't know how anyone would score against one with those players out there. The Bruce Bowen cut could be the death of this team, not enough has been made of this, but it would have been nice to have him on Arroyo when he was going off last night. Battier's a nice player, but they need a lock down stopper, they had one and they cut him.
One final note, the refs are high, high comedy. They call random technical fouls on nobody, they'll blow the whistle and then huddle together and then go with "foul on the USA, 2 shots" and everyone will kind of look around like "who was it on?" only to get no response, it's just a monstrosity out there.
Reading ESPN it seems as if everyone is giving them a grade. Well, I'd give them a C. I'll have a review of the game against China coming up tomorrow, but that game is on at 3:30 in the AM so it would either be the drunkest review of a game ever, or I'll catch it on tivo tomorrow morning. Until then, USA USA USA!!!
Thursday, August 17, 2006
Well Allow Me To Retort!
You didn't think that was going to go unanswered did you? Will get to to the non-basketball related topic in a moment, but first we have to talk about Team USA. They're going to smoke everyone in their pool, don't get too excited when they obliterate China by 40, the real test comes in the knockout stages. If you are a basketball fan of any kind, you have to watch when it gets to that round, the quality of play is outstanding. That being said, it's asinine to leave Bruce Bowen off the roster. He's the best defender on the team, he knows how to guard Manu and Parker better than anyone in the world, and they kept freaking Battier on the roster over him. Nice move. I know he's got a freakish alien bald head, and he played at Duke, but this could be a colossal error. If Manu goes for one of those 34 point games where he's just hitting dagger after dagger to beat our Red, White, and Blue, remember that Bruce Bowen is sitting in his street clothes watching it and shaking his head.
Now, onto the uprising that is the Seattle Seahawks. Frankly, I'm impressed that the co-author of this blog didn't complain that the refs hired Mike Shanahan to coach the Broncos 11 years ago, thus giving them the coach they needed to finally win a Super Bowl. Or that the refs drafted Terrell Davis, or that the refs traded down to avoid drafting Chris Paul. Or that the refs...you get the idea. Hey, did you know they have a new reality series this year on NBC where they follow around Seahawk fans all season long? It's called "The Sorest Loser".
Anyway, there is one cold hard fact that the Seahawk fans will have to live with as long as their team is in existence. They had to leave the AFC West to become a contender. They tucked their tail between their legs and bravely ran away.
At the risk of offending anyone else who may read this blog, and on a separate subject, Go Ducks.
Now, onto the uprising that is the Seattle Seahawks. Frankly, I'm impressed that the co-author of this blog didn't complain that the refs hired Mike Shanahan to coach the Broncos 11 years ago, thus giving them the coach they needed to finally win a Super Bowl. Or that the refs drafted Terrell Davis, or that the refs traded down to avoid drafting Chris Paul. Or that the refs...you get the idea. Hey, did you know they have a new reality series this year on NBC where they follow around Seahawk fans all season long? It's called "The Sorest Loser".
Anyway, there is one cold hard fact that the Seahawk fans will have to live with as long as their team is in existence. They had to leave the AFC West to become a contender. They tucked their tail between their legs and bravely ran away.
At the risk of offending anyone else who may read this blog, and on a separate subject, Go Ducks.
Tuesday, August 15, 2006
A Quick Note On Team USA
Fresh off of blasting South Korea by 53 points, Team USA has one more cut to make from its roster. (Originally, there were 2 cuts that needed to be made, but then Kirk Heinrich outplayed Gilbert Arenas for four straight games and whaddya know, suddenly Arenas has a minor groin pull). Many people think that either Bruce Bowen or Shane Battier will get the axe, and at first thought I'd like to see Bowen kept on the team despite his bad performance for them to-date. But let's take a look at the overall roster.
Because the international game is played so differently, rather than break each player into the traditional five positions, we're going to go with "Guards" (bring the ball up and initiate the offense), "Wings" (players who play mainly on the perimeter and either catch and shoot or drive to the basket), and "Posts" (do I need to explain this one?).
Guards: Dwyane Wade, Chris Paul, Kirk Heinrich, Joe Johnson
Wings: Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James, Antawn Jamison, Bruce Bowen
Posts: Elton Brand, Chris Bosh, Dwight Howard, Brad Miller, Shane Battier
Anyone who knows anything about international basketball will tell you that you need to have four guards on your roster. So all four of those guys aren't going anywhere. Looking at the list of wings and posts, Anthony, James, Brand, and Miller have proven themselves as necessary pieces to this team's success, so they aren't going anywhere. That leaves the final cut coming down to one of Jamison, Bowen, Bosh, Howard or Battier.
The first question to me is, do any of those players have skill sets that are already accounted for? In a nutshell, here are each player's strengths:
Jamison - inside/out scoring, rebounding
Bowen - three point shooting and defense
Bosh - rebounding, shotblocking, post scoring
Howard - rebounding, shotblocking, post scoring
Battier - rebounding, toughness, defense, post scoring
I think you've got to have Bruce Bowen on the roster, for two big reasons: 1. He is the best one-on-one (i'm sorry, i refuse to use the term "on-ball") defender on the team, and 2. He has a tremendous amount of experience playing against Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, the two starts of France and Argentina; what will likely be USA's most competitive rivals (along with Germany). So Bowen stays. Jamison can shoot from outside and spread the floor, which will help out against the zone defenses that teams will inevitably be throwing at Team USA.
So we're down to Bosh, Howard and Battier. Three big men who have similar skill sets. I think that Team USA will have enough scoring -- both in the post and from the perimeter -- with the players we've already discussed, so the primary "needs" of the team would be defense and rebounding. Battier is a nice player, a very complete player, and a guy I'd love to have on the Blazers -- but he simply doesn't do those things as well as Chris Bosh or Dwight Howard does them; and the skills he does have are duplicated somewhat by Anthony and Elton Brand. They say that one of Team USA's biggest potential weaknesses would be a big-man who can score from outside and inside, and though Battier is better at muscling out of the paint than either of the other two, I really think that Howard and Bosh's height, leaping ability and long arms will be more effective and will win them the final spots. It's closer than you think, but that's my prediction for now.
Because the international game is played so differently, rather than break each player into the traditional five positions, we're going to go with "Guards" (bring the ball up and initiate the offense), "Wings" (players who play mainly on the perimeter and either catch and shoot or drive to the basket), and "Posts" (do I need to explain this one?).
Guards: Dwyane Wade, Chris Paul, Kirk Heinrich, Joe Johnson
Wings: Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James, Antawn Jamison, Bruce Bowen
Posts: Elton Brand, Chris Bosh, Dwight Howard, Brad Miller, Shane Battier
Anyone who knows anything about international basketball will tell you that you need to have four guards on your roster. So all four of those guys aren't going anywhere. Looking at the list of wings and posts, Anthony, James, Brand, and Miller have proven themselves as necessary pieces to this team's success, so they aren't going anywhere. That leaves the final cut coming down to one of Jamison, Bowen, Bosh, Howard or Battier.
The first question to me is, do any of those players have skill sets that are already accounted for? In a nutshell, here are each player's strengths:
Jamison - inside/out scoring, rebounding
Bowen - three point shooting and defense
Bosh - rebounding, shotblocking, post scoring
Howard - rebounding, shotblocking, post scoring
Battier - rebounding, toughness, defense, post scoring
I think you've got to have Bruce Bowen on the roster, for two big reasons: 1. He is the best one-on-one (i'm sorry, i refuse to use the term "on-ball") defender on the team, and 2. He has a tremendous amount of experience playing against Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, the two starts of France and Argentina; what will likely be USA's most competitive rivals (along with Germany). So Bowen stays. Jamison can shoot from outside and spread the floor, which will help out against the zone defenses that teams will inevitably be throwing at Team USA.
So we're down to Bosh, Howard and Battier. Three big men who have similar skill sets. I think that Team USA will have enough scoring -- both in the post and from the perimeter -- with the players we've already discussed, so the primary "needs" of the team would be defense and rebounding. Battier is a nice player, a very complete player, and a guy I'd love to have on the Blazers -- but he simply doesn't do those things as well as Chris Bosh or Dwight Howard does them; and the skills he does have are duplicated somewhat by Anthony and Elton Brand. They say that one of Team USA's biggest potential weaknesses would be a big-man who can score from outside and inside, and though Battier is better at muscling out of the paint than either of the other two, I really think that Howard and Bosh's height, leaping ability and long arms will be more effective and will win them the final spots. It's closer than you think, but that's my prediction for now.
Let's Get This Out Of The Way Right Now
... before the season starts. I know this is a basketball blog, but you must pardon my momentary digression. I am a Seattle Seahawks fan. Have been for my whole life. It's been painful, it's been funny, but for the last few seasons it's been great and save for a terrible interception and a few blown calls, we'd be talking about the defending champs right now. That said, I have very high expectations for my boys in blue this coming season. Seattle is absolutely the favorite in the NFC, and easily one of the top three teams in the NFL. So what I'm saying is, they will likely win many games, enter the playoffs, and have a legitimate chance to win the whole damn thing.
My blog cohort on the other hand is a fan of the Denver Broncos. Yes, the same Denver Broncos who needed five chances (and four in our lifetime) to win their first super bowl. The ones who were led at quarterback for several years by a man who's teeth resemble that of a well-fed equine. The team who only received that player because he was a whiney, crying baby bitch just like Eli Manning and refused to play for the team that drafted him. The only team in the league that resides in a snowey area, yet their coach eminates an eery day-glo. His team, although probably not their conference favorite and probably more like a top-6 team than a top-3 team, is also among the league's upper echelon and with their cakewalk of a division will likely win many games and enter the playoffs.
Fortunately, our teams play in different conferences and rarely meet on the field any more. Granted, we were a vintage Jake Plummer performance away from meeting in the REAL granddaddy of them all, but fortunately it didn't happen (and if it would have, I'd probably have a different blog partner, to be frank). However, this year is different. On December 3, the two teams meet in a late-season squirmish which will likely have home-field-in-playoff implications for both teams. Fortunately for my cohort, this game takes place in Denver, which is not the easiest place to play in December. Nonetheless, it promises to be quite a battle.
You may be wondering, "what exactly is the point of all of this?" Well I'll just come out and say it: you may sense a bit of tension around these parts as the NFL season moves briskly along. The tension hasn't started yet, and probably won't until around Thanksgiving. Now that the Seahawks are among the league's elite, two things have happened: 1. Its fans have become slightly insufferable, and 2. many people -- fans of other teams -- are threatened by this, and have difficulty comprehending it. My co-author of this blog happens to be one of those people. So consider yourself warned.
Oh, and by the way: GO SEAHAWKS.
My blog cohort on the other hand is a fan of the Denver Broncos. Yes, the same Denver Broncos who needed five chances (and four in our lifetime) to win their first super bowl. The ones who were led at quarterback for several years by a man who's teeth resemble that of a well-fed equine. The team who only received that player because he was a whiney, crying baby bitch just like Eli Manning and refused to play for the team that drafted him. The only team in the league that resides in a snowey area, yet their coach eminates an eery day-glo. His team, although probably not their conference favorite and probably more like a top-6 team than a top-3 team, is also among the league's upper echelon and with their cakewalk of a division will likely win many games and enter the playoffs.
Fortunately, our teams play in different conferences and rarely meet on the field any more. Granted, we were a vintage Jake Plummer performance away from meeting in the REAL granddaddy of them all, but fortunately it didn't happen (and if it would have, I'd probably have a different blog partner, to be frank). However, this year is different. On December 3, the two teams meet in a late-season squirmish which will likely have home-field-in-playoff implications for both teams. Fortunately for my cohort, this game takes place in Denver, which is not the easiest place to play in December. Nonetheless, it promises to be quite a battle.
You may be wondering, "what exactly is the point of all of this?" Well I'll just come out and say it: you may sense a bit of tension around these parts as the NFL season moves briskly along. The tension hasn't started yet, and probably won't until around Thanksgiving. Now that the Seahawks are among the league's elite, two things have happened: 1. Its fans have become slightly insufferable, and 2. many people -- fans of other teams -- are threatened by this, and have difficulty comprehending it. My co-author of this blog happens to be one of those people. So consider yourself warned.
Oh, and by the way: GO SEAHAWKS.
Monday, August 14, 2006
Catching up on NBA news
It's been 13 days since my last post, and I'm going to come clean: I feel guilty. It's not like we have any Blazer news to report, but there are a few NBA-related items to discus -- and I'm ready to discuss 'em. So i'm coming out guns blazing here, and let's knock these bitches out item-by-item.
Oh, and for some reason the web browser on the Mac that i'm writing this on (new job and hence new computer) won't allow me to bold or bullett or do any of those sexy things that you all love so much so you'll have to deal with plain text again, as if it were the blogs of 1998. (ugh)
1. Richardson-Miles Rumor: "Wow, a deal almost happened"
Yawn. I have a feeling we'll be hearing a new Miles rumor every month until he gets dealt this coming January or February. And contrary to my blog partner (and let me emphasize this again: blog partner; nothing more and nothing less), I do not think Miles will get dealt prior to the season. No, I don't live in Portland and No, I don't experience the hostility and negativity that everyone feels towards him -- of which I am a part of this group, do not mistake -- first hand. But here's the problem: Portland simply can't get anything for him right now. I see this Miles thing playing out one of three ways:
-He plays well for a few months this coming season, and Portland deals him for a nice part
-He plays like garbage, and Portland either sells him off at forty cents on the dollar or ends up releasing him
-He has nights where he plays well, and nights where he looks totally out of touch, and Portland deals him for a mediocre part
I think we all know what the likely scenario is: there is about a 60% chance that #3 happens. I'm sorry to say it but I think it has to be said.
2. The Atlanta Hawks: "Throwing up all over themselves for 20 years and counting!"
I love this deal, because it's so indicative of Atlanta's pure inadequacy. The Hawks are sending their best player -- Al Harrington -- along with their backup center to the Indiana Pacers for .... nothing. That's right, nothing. Well, nothing right now. They're getting Indiana's first round pick next season, which will likely be in the 16-20 range. To put that in perspective for you, here are some of the wonderful players who have gone in between 16 and 20 for the past three drafts: Joey Graham, Kirk Snyder, Dorrell Wright, Troy Bell, Zarko Cabarkapa, Dahntay Jones, Alexander Pavlovic. Wow. That's quite a haul for a guy who is as versatile and as good a scorer as Harrington. Congratulations, Hawks fans: your front office just made the second-dumbest move of the offseason for the third year in a row. Have fun with that.
3. Team USA
I'll admit it, I've fallen completely for the myopia. I am full-on rooting for this team and I fully expect them to win the whole shebang. Yes it's only the World Championships, but let's not forget that it was the World Championships that derailed this whole thing four years ago so we might as well use it to get back on track as well. Sure, the team will struggle a little bit with big men who can score both inside and out, but is there a team on the planet who wouldn't struggle with that? Nitpicking. We've got the best backcourt and the best wing players in the world. And can someone inform me exactly when Carmelo Anthony turned into a fantastic all-around multidimensional player? God damn. I haven't seen something go from "good" to "great" that fast since Jessica Alba. Oh, and by the way, as for this "groin strain" that Gilbert Arenas suffered which is holding him out from the next round? BULLSHIT. He's not hurt, he just doesn't want to suffer the indignity of being cut in favor of Kirk Heinrich. You heard it here first.
4. The Latest Knicks Fiasco
Welcome, ladies and gentelmen, to our bi-monthy play-at-home game: How Bad Can The Knicks Fuck Up Their Team This Time? Our winner: $30 million for Jared Jeffries. Totally unbelievable. I suppose though that should be about right; if Jerome James is a $40 million player. Of course, Jeffries did average 6 points and 1 assist in 25 minutes per game last year, so it makes sense that you'd want to make a big commitment to those kind of numbers. Oh, and by the way, those stats actually declined from the year before, so clearly he's a player on the rise. And did I mention that he doesn't really have a position, either? He's actually listed as a "GF" on espn's website, making that a whopping 6 combo players on New York's roster by my count (the other 5 being Crawford, Francis, Frye, Richardson, J-Rose). Nice. Seriously, every time Isaiah makes a move, it's the new "dumbest move i've seen an NBA GM make". I think he currently holds the top 15 spots on that list.
5. Poor Bonzi Wells: Still Homeless
I know it's hard to believe, but Bonzi Wells can't seem to find a team willing to meet his unrealistic contract demands. (Insert joke about Knicks here). Supposedly the Nuggets are talking to the Kings about a sign-and-trade, but the problem is that the Nuggets don't want to give bonzi the five years and $50 million he's asking for. NO! You mean someone doesn't want to give 17% of their cap space to an underachieving a-hole who spits on other players and is disliked by the entire league? Shocking. Also, is it just me or are the Nuggets turning into the new Mavericks? It seems like every freakin' free agent or player demanding a trade gets linked to them.
6. Blazers' Ownership Situation
This is a tough one to figure out. With two straight years of cost-cutting-at-all-costs, piss-poor on court play and having it fed down our throats that Portland is losing money left and right, it's hard to be excited about the news that we won't be getting a new owner any time soon. And with the shenanigans going on up in Seattle along with Paul Allen's obvious ties to the region, it's scary to learn about his sudden lack of interest in selling the team following that news to the north. That said, I don't think we're in dire straits yet. All indications seemed to point out that the events of this year's draft (which I believe will constitute a turning point in Portland's fortunes; both on and off the court) were reinvigorating to Paul Allen. And who knows? Maybe he is back into it again, and is willing to spend a little cashola on the club now that we aren't chock full of dickheads. Or maybe he is eyeing a potential move up to Seattle. Who knows. I'm staying cautiously optimistic about the whole thing right now, and at this point I'll take that feeling.
Oh, and for some reason the web browser on the Mac that i'm writing this on (new job and hence new computer) won't allow me to bold or bullett or do any of those sexy things that you all love so much so you'll have to deal with plain text again, as if it were the blogs of 1998. (ugh)
1. Richardson-Miles Rumor: "Wow, a deal almost happened"
Yawn. I have a feeling we'll be hearing a new Miles rumor every month until he gets dealt this coming January or February. And contrary to my blog partner (and let me emphasize this again: blog partner; nothing more and nothing less), I do not think Miles will get dealt prior to the season. No, I don't live in Portland and No, I don't experience the hostility and negativity that everyone feels towards him -- of which I am a part of this group, do not mistake -- first hand. But here's the problem: Portland simply can't get anything for him right now. I see this Miles thing playing out one of three ways:
-He plays well for a few months this coming season, and Portland deals him for a nice part
-He plays like garbage, and Portland either sells him off at forty cents on the dollar or ends up releasing him
-He has nights where he plays well, and nights where he looks totally out of touch, and Portland deals him for a mediocre part
I think we all know what the likely scenario is: there is about a 60% chance that #3 happens. I'm sorry to say it but I think it has to be said.
2. The Atlanta Hawks: "Throwing up all over themselves for 20 years and counting!"
I love this deal, because it's so indicative of Atlanta's pure inadequacy. The Hawks are sending their best player -- Al Harrington -- along with their backup center to the Indiana Pacers for .... nothing. That's right, nothing. Well, nothing right now. They're getting Indiana's first round pick next season, which will likely be in the 16-20 range. To put that in perspective for you, here are some of the wonderful players who have gone in between 16 and 20 for the past three drafts: Joey Graham, Kirk Snyder, Dorrell Wright, Troy Bell, Zarko Cabarkapa, Dahntay Jones, Alexander Pavlovic. Wow. That's quite a haul for a guy who is as versatile and as good a scorer as Harrington. Congratulations, Hawks fans: your front office just made the second-dumbest move of the offseason for the third year in a row. Have fun with that.
3. Team USA
I'll admit it, I've fallen completely for the myopia. I am full-on rooting for this team and I fully expect them to win the whole shebang. Yes it's only the World Championships, but let's not forget that it was the World Championships that derailed this whole thing four years ago so we might as well use it to get back on track as well. Sure, the team will struggle a little bit with big men who can score both inside and out, but is there a team on the planet who wouldn't struggle with that? Nitpicking. We've got the best backcourt and the best wing players in the world. And can someone inform me exactly when Carmelo Anthony turned into a fantastic all-around multidimensional player? God damn. I haven't seen something go from "good" to "great" that fast since Jessica Alba. Oh, and by the way, as for this "groin strain" that Gilbert Arenas suffered which is holding him out from the next round? BULLSHIT. He's not hurt, he just doesn't want to suffer the indignity of being cut in favor of Kirk Heinrich. You heard it here first.
4. The Latest Knicks Fiasco
Welcome, ladies and gentelmen, to our bi-monthy play-at-home game: How Bad Can The Knicks Fuck Up Their Team This Time? Our winner: $30 million for Jared Jeffries. Totally unbelievable. I suppose though that should be about right; if Jerome James is a $40 million player. Of course, Jeffries did average 6 points and 1 assist in 25 minutes per game last year, so it makes sense that you'd want to make a big commitment to those kind of numbers. Oh, and by the way, those stats actually declined from the year before, so clearly he's a player on the rise. And did I mention that he doesn't really have a position, either? He's actually listed as a "GF" on espn's website, making that a whopping 6 combo players on New York's roster by my count (the other 5 being Crawford, Francis, Frye, Richardson, J-Rose). Nice. Seriously, every time Isaiah makes a move, it's the new "dumbest move i've seen an NBA GM make". I think he currently holds the top 15 spots on that list.
5. Poor Bonzi Wells: Still Homeless
I know it's hard to believe, but Bonzi Wells can't seem to find a team willing to meet his unrealistic contract demands. (Insert joke about Knicks here). Supposedly the Nuggets are talking to the Kings about a sign-and-trade, but the problem is that the Nuggets don't want to give bonzi the five years and $50 million he's asking for. NO! You mean someone doesn't want to give 17% of their cap space to an underachieving a-hole who spits on other players and is disliked by the entire league? Shocking. Also, is it just me or are the Nuggets turning into the new Mavericks? It seems like every freakin' free agent or player demanding a trade gets linked to them.
6. Blazers' Ownership Situation
This is a tough one to figure out. With two straight years of cost-cutting-at-all-costs, piss-poor on court play and having it fed down our throats that Portland is losing money left and right, it's hard to be excited about the news that we won't be getting a new owner any time soon. And with the shenanigans going on up in Seattle along with Paul Allen's obvious ties to the region, it's scary to learn about his sudden lack of interest in selling the team following that news to the north. That said, I don't think we're in dire straits yet. All indications seemed to point out that the events of this year's draft (which I believe will constitute a turning point in Portland's fortunes; both on and off the court) were reinvigorating to Paul Allen. And who knows? Maybe he is back into it again, and is willing to spend a little cashola on the club now that we aren't chock full of dickheads. Or maybe he is eyeing a potential move up to Seattle. Who knows. I'm staying cautiously optimistic about the whole thing right now, and at this point I'll take that feeling.
Wednesday, August 09, 2006
Born Down In a Dead Man's Town
This is the extreme down time period of the off season. Camps are a ways away from opening, GM's are working on deals but there doesn't appear to be a major blockbuster in the works. I don't have the energy to write anything about seeing a headline that reads "Bullets don't match Jeffries contract offer from Knicks." Um, no kidding. The only real basketball story going on right now is the current version of hoops players that were Born in the USA. Rest assured, we'll get back to Blazer related subject matter, and far more regular posting once camps open. Let's talk a little USA basketball today though.
First off, let me say that I like this team much more than previous versions. They have a very solid starting 5 for international competition, a style that is very different than the NBA. A dominant post player can be neutralized fairly easily, part of it's the trapezoid lane that puts the low block out further from the basket, part of it is a very strict collapsing zone that a lot of international teams can go with, and part of it is the comical refs (they should have put Cuban in charge of the team instead of Colangelo just for the sheer comedy factor alone). Exhibit A is Tim Duncan, one of the greatest post players of all time, and a class guy, becoming so frustrated that he refused to play ever again. The starting 5 of Paul, Wade, Labron, Carmelo, and Brand is perfect for this style of play, assuming Carmelo's knee is fine. Carmelo is exactly the type of guy that dominates international competition, an athletic 4 that shoots the ball from the perimeter and would play 3 in the NBA. Ever notice all the European players that come over in the draft are 6'10" but project as 3's in the NBA, well this is why.
The tournament is going to be very interesting. They should cruise through their pool, nobody is really THAT dangerous, although considering they almost lost to Brazil yesterday, anything's possible. Then it comes down to whether or not Coach K plays to win when they get to the knockout stages. Comments like "we've got a lot of depth, nobody will play 40 minutes" scares me a bit. Very clearly they should be using Heinrich and Arenas, whoever is going better at the time as the backup point, Johnson as the 10-15 minute a night sniper, Bowen as the stopper, and then Brad Miller as the backup post player, but Wade, LaBron, and Carmelo should be playing heavy minutes. They're the 3 players that can dominate the dojo, they need to be on the floor as much as possible.
In the end, I think they win it all, but then again I also think we should be more dominant that we are. What can I say, I'm still the ugly American.
First off, let me say that I like this team much more than previous versions. They have a very solid starting 5 for international competition, a style that is very different than the NBA. A dominant post player can be neutralized fairly easily, part of it's the trapezoid lane that puts the low block out further from the basket, part of it is a very strict collapsing zone that a lot of international teams can go with, and part of it is the comical refs (they should have put Cuban in charge of the team instead of Colangelo just for the sheer comedy factor alone). Exhibit A is Tim Duncan, one of the greatest post players of all time, and a class guy, becoming so frustrated that he refused to play ever again. The starting 5 of Paul, Wade, Labron, Carmelo, and Brand is perfect for this style of play, assuming Carmelo's knee is fine. Carmelo is exactly the type of guy that dominates international competition, an athletic 4 that shoots the ball from the perimeter and would play 3 in the NBA. Ever notice all the European players that come over in the draft are 6'10" but project as 3's in the NBA, well this is why.
The tournament is going to be very interesting. They should cruise through their pool, nobody is really THAT dangerous, although considering they almost lost to Brazil yesterday, anything's possible. Then it comes down to whether or not Coach K plays to win when they get to the knockout stages. Comments like "we've got a lot of depth, nobody will play 40 minutes" scares me a bit. Very clearly they should be using Heinrich and Arenas, whoever is going better at the time as the backup point, Johnson as the 10-15 minute a night sniper, Bowen as the stopper, and then Brad Miller as the backup post player, but Wade, LaBron, and Carmelo should be playing heavy minutes. They're the 3 players that can dominate the dojo, they need to be on the floor as much as possible.
In the end, I think they win it all, but then again I also think we should be more dominant that we are. What can I say, I'm still the ugly American.
Sunday, July 30, 2006
Blazers Acquire Magloire
It was announced this morning (I actually heard the news from RealGM's Buster Olney-esque email update service, highly recommended for anyone who likes a quick breakdown of links to the day's big news) that the Blazers have agreed to a trade with the Milwaukee Bucks, sending Steve Blake, Ha, and Brian Skinner in exchange for Jamaal Magloire.
I like this trade, for several reasons.
The Magoire Trade: 5-Point Analysis
1. I don't feel that anything we gave up was a big loss. None of the three pieces they dealt were major assets for the future. Milwaukee was in a similar situation with Magloire that Portland is currently in with Darius Miles: talented player who had been very good in the past, but had demanded a trade and is coming off a so-so year.
Blake had a very nice season in Portland and was surprisingly effective, but he wasn't a long-term solution and probably had his career year. He's a very careful player who can create a bit for his teammates (4.5 apg) and won't beat you with mistakes. His assist numbers weren't huge, but was 3rd in the NBA in assist-to-turnover ratio and Portland's anemic offense can probably account for a portion of that. We all know that Portland had (still has, actually) a glut of PG's and Blake will be a decent backup for the rest of his career. No more, no less, and I wish him luck. Skinner is a serviceable big man who can eat up some minutes at the 4 and 5, but having LaFrentz around eliminates the need for him, and he was essentially insurance in the event that Pryzbilla didn't re-sign. And finally, Ha -- do we even need to discuss him? I wrote when Ha made his debut that he might be the worst big man I've ever seen log an NBA minute, and though he's got size, the absolute ceiling for him would be a 10 minutes per game 11th man. I doubt he's still in the league 24 months from now.
2. It clarifies our PG depth. With the combination of Sergio Rodriguez being signed (see my earlier post - "Give me some of that spanish chocolate love" if you'd like to hear my thoughts on him) and Brandon Roy showing he can play backup PG minutes, Portland clearly felt they had a logjam at PG with Jarrett Jack and Dan Dickau also being in the fold. We've pared down the guys who can play PG, and potentially freed up both the starting spot for Jarrett Jack and some backup minutes for either Dickau or Rodriguez.
3. Magloire is a true center, and a decent offensive post-player. He averaged 10 and 10 last season in 30 minutes per game, and is more of a back-to-the-basket player than LaFrentz. This allows the team to play LaMarcus Aldridge at PF, and put Magloire into the game at Center so they still have a low-post scorer and a very good rebounder, allowing Aldridge to work in the mid-range. The team's depth chart in the front court is now a little more clear, and I see it as:
C - Pryzbilla, Magloire
PF - Randolph, LaFrentz, Aldridge
Yes, there will be times when LaFrentz and Randolph play together, but I also think there will be times that Magloire and Randolph play together.
4. The team stuck to their guns about Miles. Portland didn't execute a "trade just to make a trade" regarding Darius Miles, as I've been afraid they would do. Everyone knows that Milwaukee needs some depth at the "3", and you know that they asked for Miles. But we also know that Miles and Outlaw are the only true SF's on Portland's roster, and they simple cannot trade Miles without getting a SF in return. So while I wish they could have found a way to make it work, at least they stuck to their guns.
5. And finally, the roster was cut down. The Blazers were carrying 15 contract players prior to the trade, and now we're down to 13. The last thing this team needs, with all of its young talent and potential, is to be bogged down with convaluted roles that include mediocre veterans. We got rid of two MV's and took a small step toward clarifying some roles.
Catching up on a few other loose ends while I've been traversing the Orient:
I like this trade, for several reasons.
The Magoire Trade: 5-Point Analysis
1. I don't feel that anything we gave up was a big loss. None of the three pieces they dealt were major assets for the future. Milwaukee was in a similar situation with Magloire that Portland is currently in with Darius Miles: talented player who had been very good in the past, but had demanded a trade and is coming off a so-so year.
Blake had a very nice season in Portland and was surprisingly effective, but he wasn't a long-term solution and probably had his career year. He's a very careful player who can create a bit for his teammates (4.5 apg) and won't beat you with mistakes. His assist numbers weren't huge, but was 3rd in the NBA in assist-to-turnover ratio and Portland's anemic offense can probably account for a portion of that. We all know that Portland had (still has, actually) a glut of PG's and Blake will be a decent backup for the rest of his career. No more, no less, and I wish him luck. Skinner is a serviceable big man who can eat up some minutes at the 4 and 5, but having LaFrentz around eliminates the need for him, and he was essentially insurance in the event that Pryzbilla didn't re-sign. And finally, Ha -- do we even need to discuss him? I wrote when Ha made his debut that he might be the worst big man I've ever seen log an NBA minute, and though he's got size, the absolute ceiling for him would be a 10 minutes per game 11th man. I doubt he's still in the league 24 months from now.
2. It clarifies our PG depth. With the combination of Sergio Rodriguez being signed (see my earlier post - "Give me some of that spanish chocolate love" if you'd like to hear my thoughts on him) and Brandon Roy showing he can play backup PG minutes, Portland clearly felt they had a logjam at PG with Jarrett Jack and Dan Dickau also being in the fold. We've pared down the guys who can play PG, and potentially freed up both the starting spot for Jarrett Jack and some backup minutes for either Dickau or Rodriguez.
3. Magloire is a true center, and a decent offensive post-player. He averaged 10 and 10 last season in 30 minutes per game, and is more of a back-to-the-basket player than LaFrentz. This allows the team to play LaMarcus Aldridge at PF, and put Magloire into the game at Center so they still have a low-post scorer and a very good rebounder, allowing Aldridge to work in the mid-range. The team's depth chart in the front court is now a little more clear, and I see it as:
C - Pryzbilla, Magloire
PF - Randolph, LaFrentz, Aldridge
Yes, there will be times when LaFrentz and Randolph play together, but I also think there will be times that Magloire and Randolph play together.
4. The team stuck to their guns about Miles. Portland didn't execute a "trade just to make a trade" regarding Darius Miles, as I've been afraid they would do. Everyone knows that Milwaukee needs some depth at the "3", and you know that they asked for Miles. But we also know that Miles and Outlaw are the only true SF's on Portland's roster, and they simple cannot trade Miles without getting a SF in return. So while I wish they could have found a way to make it work, at least they stuck to their guns.
5. And finally, the roster was cut down. The Blazers were carrying 15 contract players prior to the trade, and now we're down to 13. The last thing this team needs, with all of its young talent and potential, is to be bogged down with convaluted roles that include mediocre veterans. We got rid of two MV's and took a small step toward clarifying some roles.
Catching up on a few other loose ends while I've been traversing the Orient:
- First of all, two high-quality posts by Lochi while I was out of the country -- including the clear frontrunner for Post Title of the Year: "Get Busy Livin', Or Get Busy Dyin'." Excellent work.
- Quick note on the potential trade of Zach Randolph: I don't think it will happen for a moment this offseason. Not only did Portland have the league's worst offense last year and they'd be trading their best and most consistent offensive player, but I believe Zach's trade value is a bit low and it will take at least the first half of next season to get it back to where the team can receive adequate value in return. Granted, with Pryzbilla, LaFrentz, Magloire and eventually Aldridge, they've got the depth to be able to make that deal -- I just don't see it happening yet.
- As for the team's roster as it stands, they've got 13 guys, which means one player will either be on the "inactive" list or sent to the NBDL. I imagine that player will be either Rodriguez or Dickau, with the frontrunner being Rodriguez. He may have more potential than Dickau, but because of his service time, Dickau cannot be sent to the NBDL so the team would have more options with Rodriguez.
- An update on projected minutes-per-position:
PG: Jack 25, Dickau 15, Roy 8 (DNP: Rodriguez)
SG: Webster 25, Roy 15, Dixon or Outlaw 8
SF: Miles 25, Outlaw 15, Roy or Webster 8
PF: Randolph 28, LaFrentz 15, Aldridge 5
C: Pryzbilla 28, Magloire 15, LaFrentz 5
Update: Jason Quick is also reporting the trade here.
Saturday, July 29, 2006
Get Busy Livin' or Get Busy Dyin'
Let's go while we're young! Apparently the Blazer front office has decided to take a slight vacation and aren't doing anything right now. As best I can tell, this is what they're currently going with as far as a starting 5:
Jack, Roy, Miles, Randolph, Joel.
Now that's not too terrible, considering the team just won 21 games, I'm open to any bit of improvement here. The overwhelming opinion has been that they are going to trade Miles this season. Nate doesn't like him, and even though Paul Allen supposedly does for some strange reason, it doesn't appear that he's in the plans. The problem would be that only Travis Outlaw would be left on the roster as a SF. Nobody is going to trade you a SF for Miles straight up, that makes very little sense, so that leaves you with making a side move for your starting SF. Everyone loves rumors, rumors are fun, rumors are great, so let me throw a few ideas out there, because clearly our front office needs some help coming up with some plans. First let's get some rules out the way, all of the following work under the current salary cap, that's rule number 1, no crazy trades that aren't possible. Rule #2, the whole goal with dealing Miles (or Randolph) is to either clear salary, so don't take on anything long term, or improve long term. With that, on to some things that make sense, note to the Blazer front office, put down the mojito and pick up the phone.
When in trouble, call the Knicks. You could get Thomas to do just about anything, we know this, so you can actually think of stupid things with him and he'd do it. One idea would be Zach and Miles for Jalen Rose and Channing Frye. This gives the Blazers a quality big man rotation, and a starting 3 with a monster contract that's off the books this year. Champaign all around.
Call the Lakers and see what they want for Lamar Odom. Odom has 2 years remaining on his contract, Zach has 4, a Randolph for Odom trade works under the cap. That gets you your SF, and it cuts 2 years off a moronic contract. This would move you to a starting PF of either LaFrentz or Aldridge, not so good, but then you're free to deal Miles for a serviceable starter there like...
Miles for Troy Murphy. The Warriors seem to be shopping him around, he'd be a nice fit along side players like Jack, Roy, Odom, and Joel.
None of these get you into the playoffs next year, I know this. It's just time for the Blazers front office to get moving. I figured I'd at least throw some things out there, they seem to be too busy doing...well...nobody really knows what they're doing right now.
Jack, Roy, Miles, Randolph, Joel.
Now that's not too terrible, considering the team just won 21 games, I'm open to any bit of improvement here. The overwhelming opinion has been that they are going to trade Miles this season. Nate doesn't like him, and even though Paul Allen supposedly does for some strange reason, it doesn't appear that he's in the plans. The problem would be that only Travis Outlaw would be left on the roster as a SF. Nobody is going to trade you a SF for Miles straight up, that makes very little sense, so that leaves you with making a side move for your starting SF. Everyone loves rumors, rumors are fun, rumors are great, so let me throw a few ideas out there, because clearly our front office needs some help coming up with some plans. First let's get some rules out the way, all of the following work under the current salary cap, that's rule number 1, no crazy trades that aren't possible. Rule #2, the whole goal with dealing Miles (or Randolph) is to either clear salary, so don't take on anything long term, or improve long term. With that, on to some things that make sense, note to the Blazer front office, put down the mojito and pick up the phone.
When in trouble, call the Knicks. You could get Thomas to do just about anything, we know this, so you can actually think of stupid things with him and he'd do it. One idea would be Zach and Miles for Jalen Rose and Channing Frye. This gives the Blazers a quality big man rotation, and a starting 3 with a monster contract that's off the books this year. Champaign all around.
Call the Lakers and see what they want for Lamar Odom. Odom has 2 years remaining on his contract, Zach has 4, a Randolph for Odom trade works under the cap. That gets you your SF, and it cuts 2 years off a moronic contract. This would move you to a starting PF of either LaFrentz or Aldridge, not so good, but then you're free to deal Miles for a serviceable starter there like...
Miles for Troy Murphy. The Warriors seem to be shopping him around, he'd be a nice fit along side players like Jack, Roy, Odom, and Joel.
None of these get you into the playoffs next year, I know this. It's just time for the Blazers front office to get moving. I figured I'd at least throw some things out there, they seem to be too busy doing...well...nobody really knows what they're doing right now.
Monday, July 24, 2006
I Miss The Rains Down In Africa
Seriously, who turned on the heat? Did I move to Africa and someone not tell me? I'm not built for this kind of heat, so I may be a little delirious typing this post. I still don't have a title for this little section of rants and opinions, rest assured there will be one by the time camps open. Anyway...
Apparently the package is out there for anyone that would like to take a shot on Darius Miles, the package being Miles and Steve Blake. Hard to believe they aren't finding any takers on that dynamic duo. Might as well throw Ha in there to sweeten the pot.
Freddy Jones is now a Raptor, this makes me sad. Yes, my dream of having Telfair run the fast break with Freddy streaking to the basket for one of those insane dunks has died. I think he's a pretty good fit for the Raps though, a good move for them in an off season of general stupidity (Villanueva for TJ Ford? Come on now, there had to be alcohol involved with that decision).
Iverson to Boston, get it over with already, I'm tired of reading about it. That's certainly going to be the smallest backcourt in NBA history, Iverson and Telfair, I wonder if anyone's going to post them up?
Sonics to somewhere in Oklahoma, whatever. I'm sure this will be a much bigger topic down the road, but the Blazers aren't going to Seattle. Everyone remain calm during the subterfuge (hah, take that Stevie) that will come out of the Blazers front office in the next year or two.
Shawn Kemp busted for drugs. I think Bob Whitsitt just tried to sign him to play D-line for the Seahawks after hearing the news.
USA basketball, is it me or is there still a shocking lack of shooting on that team? Don't get me wrong, a lineup of Paul, Wade, LaBron, Carmelo, and Brand looks like it will be awfully fun to watch. But if Gilbert Arenas is your outside shooting threat, odds are you're going to see more 2-3 zones than you would if you played 10 games in a row against Syracuse. If Redd isn't going to be available, and you pretty much got the big F-You from Kobe, don't you think it might have been a decent idea to have Mike Miller hanging around under the premise "if the shit hits the fan, at least we'll have one guy that can launch from downtown." Apparently the backup plan was...well there was no backup plan.
In honor of one of the last great NBA fans, Bill Simmons, picking an EPL team, I'm an Arsenal fan to his Spurs. The fearless Moderator of this board is a communist and cheers for Manchester United. As for the bandwagon factor for the Gunners, I prefer the term frontrunner.
Now, about that air conditioner...
Apparently the package is out there for anyone that would like to take a shot on Darius Miles, the package being Miles and Steve Blake. Hard to believe they aren't finding any takers on that dynamic duo. Might as well throw Ha in there to sweeten the pot.
Freddy Jones is now a Raptor, this makes me sad. Yes, my dream of having Telfair run the fast break with Freddy streaking to the basket for one of those insane dunks has died. I think he's a pretty good fit for the Raps though, a good move for them in an off season of general stupidity (Villanueva for TJ Ford? Come on now, there had to be alcohol involved with that decision).
Iverson to Boston, get it over with already, I'm tired of reading about it. That's certainly going to be the smallest backcourt in NBA history, Iverson and Telfair, I wonder if anyone's going to post them up?
Sonics to somewhere in Oklahoma, whatever. I'm sure this will be a much bigger topic down the road, but the Blazers aren't going to Seattle. Everyone remain calm during the subterfuge (hah, take that Stevie) that will come out of the Blazers front office in the next year or two.
Shawn Kemp busted for drugs. I think Bob Whitsitt just tried to sign him to play D-line for the Seahawks after hearing the news.
USA basketball, is it me or is there still a shocking lack of shooting on that team? Don't get me wrong, a lineup of Paul, Wade, LaBron, Carmelo, and Brand looks like it will be awfully fun to watch. But if Gilbert Arenas is your outside shooting threat, odds are you're going to see more 2-3 zones than you would if you played 10 games in a row against Syracuse. If Redd isn't going to be available, and you pretty much got the big F-You from Kobe, don't you think it might have been a decent idea to have Mike Miller hanging around under the premise "if the shit hits the fan, at least we'll have one guy that can launch from downtown." Apparently the backup plan was...well there was no backup plan.
In honor of one of the last great NBA fans, Bill Simmons, picking an EPL team, I'm an Arsenal fan to his Spurs. The fearless Moderator of this board is a communist and cheers for Manchester United. As for the bandwagon factor for the Gunners, I prefer the term frontrunner.
Now, about that air conditioner...
Tuesday, July 18, 2006
Rumjungle
The Vegas summer league is in the books, everyone is writing articles, calling in to radio shows, and just generally swooning over Brandon Roy. Well, allow me to roll the 7 when everyone has money out there on the numbers on the craps table. Keep this in mind:
18.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.0 blocks, all Vegas league selection.
Those were the numbers last year for Travis Outlaw, who had everyone going crazy soon after. There were numerous national articles written about his ensuing 2006 breakout year, including fantasy hoops columns that had him as a quality sleeper. How long did it take him to be waived by the teams that drafted him in the late rounds? 2 weeks? 3? These were Brandon Roy's numbers in the Vegas summer league:
19.0 points, 3.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.4 blocks, all Vegas league selection.
As far as I can tell, this is what we know from the summer leagues around the country. Brandon Roy is a very solid all around player, does everything well. Adam Morrison can get hot and light up the scoreboards. LaMarcus Aldridge is a project because he's not quite strong enough yet but does have a solid skill set on both ends of the floor. The Italian Guy isn't a total stiff, but he's got Token Euro 6th Man written all over him. Wow, those are some real shocking things to find out. In other news, I like alcohol.
The Blazers are going to be better this season, Brandon Roy is the starting 2 guard and could play some point if they need him to. We know this. He's going to be one of the front running candidates for rookie of the year due mostly to playing time and his NBA ready skills. We know this. So settle down people. If you want to see something that will surprise you in Vegas, there are a lot better places for that than the summer league.
18.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.0 blocks, all Vegas league selection.
Those were the numbers last year for Travis Outlaw, who had everyone going crazy soon after. There were numerous national articles written about his ensuing 2006 breakout year, including fantasy hoops columns that had him as a quality sleeper. How long did it take him to be waived by the teams that drafted him in the late rounds? 2 weeks? 3? These were Brandon Roy's numbers in the Vegas summer league:
19.0 points, 3.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.4 blocks, all Vegas league selection.
As far as I can tell, this is what we know from the summer leagues around the country. Brandon Roy is a very solid all around player, does everything well. Adam Morrison can get hot and light up the scoreboards. LaMarcus Aldridge is a project because he's not quite strong enough yet but does have a solid skill set on both ends of the floor. The Italian Guy isn't a total stiff, but he's got Token Euro 6th Man written all over him. Wow, those are some real shocking things to find out. In other news, I like alcohol.
The Blazers are going to be better this season, Brandon Roy is the starting 2 guard and could play some point if they need him to. We know this. He's going to be one of the front running candidates for rookie of the year due mostly to playing time and his NBA ready skills. We know this. So settle down people. If you want to see something that will surprise you in Vegas, there are a lot better places for that than the summer league.
Saturday, July 08, 2006
10 Days Later: Draft Analysis & Blazer Depth Chart Update
1. Draft
My counterpart on this site graded the Blazers a B+ for last week's draft, and let me get this out of the way right now: I'm giving them a strong "A". I loved everything they did, and even while the clueless guys on the ESPN broadcast were killing them for their moves I wondered "wait, aren't these guys missing the picture?".
I've said all along that either Aldridge or Morrison would be perfect for this team, and the fact that they ended up with one of them -- PLUS Brandon Roy -- to makes for a great haul. And as documented here, I'm also excited about Sergio Rodriguez. He may not contribute much this season, but watch videos of the kid's skills: they're unreal. Portland has a strong young set of backcourt players for the future in Jack, Rodriguez, Webster, and Roy. With the NBA increasingly becoming a guard-dominated league, what other team has that much potential in their backcourt? I can't think of a single one. And I'll say this once: I don't even have a problem with the Ratliff-LaFrentz exchange. Yes, he's on the hook for one more year of contract, but Ratliff is injury prone, poor on offense (and let's not forget this team was the NBA's lowest scoring team last season), and I just don't trust him like I used to. Raef can shoot, and though he's overpaid he'll be a nice weapon off the bench.
2. Depth Chart
Now that we know Rodriguez and Pryzbilla will both be on the team next year, let's take a look at what I perceive as the team's depth chart:
PG - Blake, Jack, Dickau, Rodriguez
SG - Roy, Webster, Dixon
SF - Miles, Outlaw
PF - Randolph, LaFrentz, Aldridge
C - Pryzbilla, Skinner, Ha
A couple of notes:
1. I expect Roy to get some playing time at PG. Nate is on record as saying he'll get "some" time there, and with him playing the point in summer league that only reinforces this.
2. Yes, I do think Roy is the team's starting 2-guard, and Dixon is the third-stringer. Last season, Dixon was essentially the starter by default, and we don't really need him to fill that role any more. Between Roy and Webster, Portland should be able to get 35 or so minutes at the 2 and Dixon can fill in the gaps.
3. I expect Webster to get some playing time at SF. He's got the size, but he doesn't have the defense. None the less, if he's lighting it up and on the court with Roy and Blake or Rodriguez, it will be an interesting experiment.
4. I expect Aldridge and LaFrentz to both play a little C alongside Randolph. Especially LaFrentz. His mid-range shooting ability will help Zach's game on offense, and between C and PF I wouldn't be surprised to see LaFrentz to get 20-25 mpg.
3. Minutes Projection By Position
So where does that leave us? We all know that Portland is trying to deal Miles at all costs, and truthfully I do not expect him to be on the roster by the time the season starts in late October. However, the only thing Portland has done with the passing of Morrison is that they've painted themselves into a bit of a corner. If they do trade Miles, then clearly they'll need to acquire a veteran SF who can play starter's minutes. Because as of now, Outlaw is the only other SF on the roster, and he's shown that he's clearly not yet ready for it. So for now we'll do a by-position minutes projection including Miles, but I think you could easily substitute whomever they trade for in Miles' spot should a deal like that go down. Following is how I see the minutes shaking down for the first 10-20 games of the season:
PG:
Blake - 20
Jack - 20
Rodriguez, Dickau, or Roy - 8
Clearly the team will not be carrying four point guards, especially if we think Roy can play a bit here. I don't believe Dickau and Blake will both be on the roster at the beginning of the season. I expect one to get moved in either a Miles or Randolph trade, and they might even stash Rodriguez in the NBDL if Roy looks like he can play. But I do expect Blake and Jack to split the bulk of the minutes.
SG:
Roy - 20
Webster - 20
Dixon or Outlaw - 8
This projection is based largely on two questions: 1. Can Roy start right away? I believe yes. And 2., Can Webster really play 20 minutes per night? Again, I believe yes. This projection is based largely on the improvement that Webster showed during the last few weeks of the season, once Nate really started letting the kids loose. I truly do believe that Juan Dixon is the odd man out here, especially if Nate decides to give Outlaw another shot at SG minutes.
SF:
Miles - 25
Outlaw - 15
Roy or Webster - 8
Honestly, this is by far the toughest position to project. Assume for a moment that Miles or whomever they bring in to replace him gets the requisite 25 minutes per game. Is Outlaw even ready to play 15 per game as a backup? To me, that's a huge question mark. I expect Nate to experiment quite a bit with Webster or Roy playing the "3", especially when Portland is utilizing a zone defense where you can hide a guy like Webster's defense a little more. We may see a three-guard lineup quite a bit this season. My personal thoughts are that I'd like to see our young guys get the bulk of their minutes at the positions where they have the brightest future, so I would like to see Portland add a little depth. If Chicago does end up releasing Khryapa after all, he might be a nice direction for Portland to look to add said depth.
PF:
Randolph - 28
LaFrentz - 10
Aldridge - 10
Ten minutes per game for both LaFrentz and Aldridge at PF seems a little light to you, doesn't it? Nate is on record as saying he thinks Aldridge will play more PF than C. But I really don't see where he'd be able to take minutes from, especially for the first 25% of the season. Zach is the team's best player right now and you have to get him his 30 minutes. Raef LaFrentz has a skill that few others on this team posess (the ability to shoot consistently) so you have to get him 20 minutes per game between PF and C. And Nate's also on record as saying that he sees LaFrentz and Randolph playing together "quite a bit", which would lead one to think that LaFrent'z primariy position on this team will be backup C.
C:
Pryzbilla - 28
LaFrentz - 12
Skinner or Aldridge - 5
I wouldn't be surprised to see most of those backup minutes go to LaFrentz due to reasons mentioned above; perhaps even all of them. We've currently got Raef pegged for 22 minutes per game between the two positions, which seems about right to me. Once Aldridge shows that he can play consistently and not take too much off the table then it's fair to expect LaFrent'z minutes to shift to center as Aldridge picks up more PF minutes.
That's what we're looking at right now. We'll be updating these projections a couple of times throughout the offseason as we learn more about the team or additional moves are made. Email any thoughts you have here, and stay tuned for an analysis of the brief flurry of trades we've had in the NBA later this week.
My counterpart on this site graded the Blazers a B+ for last week's draft, and let me get this out of the way right now: I'm giving them a strong "A". I loved everything they did, and even while the clueless guys on the ESPN broadcast were killing them for their moves I wondered "wait, aren't these guys missing the picture?".
I've said all along that either Aldridge or Morrison would be perfect for this team, and the fact that they ended up with one of them -- PLUS Brandon Roy -- to makes for a great haul. And as documented here, I'm also excited about Sergio Rodriguez. He may not contribute much this season, but watch videos of the kid's skills: they're unreal. Portland has a strong young set of backcourt players for the future in Jack, Rodriguez, Webster, and Roy. With the NBA increasingly becoming a guard-dominated league, what other team has that much potential in their backcourt? I can't think of a single one. And I'll say this once: I don't even have a problem with the Ratliff-LaFrentz exchange. Yes, he's on the hook for one more year of contract, but Ratliff is injury prone, poor on offense (and let's not forget this team was the NBA's lowest scoring team last season), and I just don't trust him like I used to. Raef can shoot, and though he's overpaid he'll be a nice weapon off the bench.
2. Depth Chart
Now that we know Rodriguez and Pryzbilla will both be on the team next year, let's take a look at what I perceive as the team's depth chart:
PG - Blake, Jack, Dickau, Rodriguez
SG - Roy, Webster, Dixon
SF - Miles, Outlaw
PF - Randolph, LaFrentz, Aldridge
C - Pryzbilla, Skinner, Ha
A couple of notes:
1. I expect Roy to get some playing time at PG. Nate is on record as saying he'll get "some" time there, and with him playing the point in summer league that only reinforces this.
2. Yes, I do think Roy is the team's starting 2-guard, and Dixon is the third-stringer. Last season, Dixon was essentially the starter by default, and we don't really need him to fill that role any more. Between Roy and Webster, Portland should be able to get 35 or so minutes at the 2 and Dixon can fill in the gaps.
3. I expect Webster to get some playing time at SF. He's got the size, but he doesn't have the defense. None the less, if he's lighting it up and on the court with Roy and Blake or Rodriguez, it will be an interesting experiment.
4. I expect Aldridge and LaFrentz to both play a little C alongside Randolph. Especially LaFrentz. His mid-range shooting ability will help Zach's game on offense, and between C and PF I wouldn't be surprised to see LaFrentz to get 20-25 mpg.
3. Minutes Projection By Position
So where does that leave us? We all know that Portland is trying to deal Miles at all costs, and truthfully I do not expect him to be on the roster by the time the season starts in late October. However, the only thing Portland has done with the passing of Morrison is that they've painted themselves into a bit of a corner. If they do trade Miles, then clearly they'll need to acquire a veteran SF who can play starter's minutes. Because as of now, Outlaw is the only other SF on the roster, and he's shown that he's clearly not yet ready for it. So for now we'll do a by-position minutes projection including Miles, but I think you could easily substitute whomever they trade for in Miles' spot should a deal like that go down. Following is how I see the minutes shaking down for the first 10-20 games of the season:
PG:
Blake - 20
Jack - 20
Rodriguez, Dickau, or Roy - 8
Clearly the team will not be carrying four point guards, especially if we think Roy can play a bit here. I don't believe Dickau and Blake will both be on the roster at the beginning of the season. I expect one to get moved in either a Miles or Randolph trade, and they might even stash Rodriguez in the NBDL if Roy looks like he can play. But I do expect Blake and Jack to split the bulk of the minutes.
SG:
Roy - 20
Webster - 20
Dixon or Outlaw - 8
This projection is based largely on two questions: 1. Can Roy start right away? I believe yes. And 2., Can Webster really play 20 minutes per night? Again, I believe yes. This projection is based largely on the improvement that Webster showed during the last few weeks of the season, once Nate really started letting the kids loose. I truly do believe that Juan Dixon is the odd man out here, especially if Nate decides to give Outlaw another shot at SG minutes.
SF:
Miles - 25
Outlaw - 15
Roy or Webster - 8
Honestly, this is by far the toughest position to project. Assume for a moment that Miles or whomever they bring in to replace him gets the requisite 25 minutes per game. Is Outlaw even ready to play 15 per game as a backup? To me, that's a huge question mark. I expect Nate to experiment quite a bit with Webster or Roy playing the "3", especially when Portland is utilizing a zone defense where you can hide a guy like Webster's defense a little more. We may see a three-guard lineup quite a bit this season. My personal thoughts are that I'd like to see our young guys get the bulk of their minutes at the positions where they have the brightest future, so I would like to see Portland add a little depth. If Chicago does end up releasing Khryapa after all, he might be a nice direction for Portland to look to add said depth.
PF:
Randolph - 28
LaFrentz - 10
Aldridge - 10
Ten minutes per game for both LaFrentz and Aldridge at PF seems a little light to you, doesn't it? Nate is on record as saying he thinks Aldridge will play more PF than C. But I really don't see where he'd be able to take minutes from, especially for the first 25% of the season. Zach is the team's best player right now and you have to get him his 30 minutes. Raef LaFrentz has a skill that few others on this team posess (the ability to shoot consistently) so you have to get him 20 minutes per game between PF and C. And Nate's also on record as saying that he sees LaFrentz and Randolph playing together "quite a bit", which would lead one to think that LaFrent'z primariy position on this team will be backup C.
C:
Pryzbilla - 28
LaFrentz - 12
Skinner or Aldridge - 5
I wouldn't be surprised to see most of those backup minutes go to LaFrentz due to reasons mentioned above; perhaps even all of them. We've currently got Raef pegged for 22 minutes per game between the two positions, which seems about right to me. Once Aldridge shows that he can play consistently and not take too much off the table then it's fair to expect LaFrent'z minutes to shift to center as Aldridge picks up more PF minutes.
That's what we're looking at right now. We'll be updating these projections a couple of times throughout the offseason as we learn more about the team or additional moves are made. Email any thoughts you have here, and stay tuned for an analysis of the brief flurry of trades we've had in the NBA later this week.
Thursday, July 06, 2006
Give Me Some Of That Tasty Spanish Chocolate Love
I am slowly becoming a massive fan of Sergio Rodriguez ... aka Spanish Chocolate. The guy flat out has ridiculous handle, so much so that I'm nearly willing to declear Sebastian Telfair a "poor man's Sergio Rodriguez." Sounds ridiculous? Click here to see a YouTube compliation of some of his highlights (thanks to Eric at OregonLive's site for providing this link). Remember, this is the Euro league that he's playing against, but also remember that most NBA scouts claim that the Euro leagues are as tough if not tougher than NCAA Division 1 basketball. You'll be amazed at his quicks, handle, and ability to break down mutliple players at once and either find the open man or create the open shot. I'm telling you: this kid will be good. Maybe not this year, but soon after. I just hope he can find some PT behind Blake and Jack.
Wednesday, July 05, 2006
Plan A: Complete
It's been said that the Blazers first priority this off season was signing Joel Pryzbilla. It would appear that they have accomplished that goal. 5 years, 32 million. At first that seems like a whole lot for a role player big man, but it's just the 32 mil that throws people off. That's only a little over 6 million per on average, which is very movable if he goes into the tank. It's also a small price to pay for a slightly above average center in the NBA. A look at Joel inside the numbers:
In the 04/05 season Joel averaged 10.5 points per 40 minutes and 12.7 rebounds/40 and accumulated a PER of 15.32 (15 is average). He followed that up in the 05/06 season by averaging 9.9 p/40 and 11.2 r/40, and a PER of 15.57. He's also a quality shot blocker and on ball defender for a big man. More importantly to people in Rip City, it appears anyway, is that he brings intangibles to the team. This is when you typically hear rubbish like he's "a warrior" or that he "does the little things" or a bunch of other cool sounding phrases that usually are code for "he sucks but we like him". In Joel's case, he's a solid center in the NBA and for a team like our Trailblazers, knowing that you have an above average player at one position on the floor locked up for the next 5 years can't be anything but a positive move.
In the 04/05 season Joel averaged 10.5 points per 40 minutes and 12.7 rebounds/40 and accumulated a PER of 15.32 (15 is average). He followed that up in the 05/06 season by averaging 9.9 p/40 and 11.2 r/40, and a PER of 15.57. He's also a quality shot blocker and on ball defender for a big man. More importantly to people in Rip City, it appears anyway, is that he brings intangibles to the team. This is when you typically hear rubbish like he's "a warrior" or that he "does the little things" or a bunch of other cool sounding phrases that usually are code for "he sucks but we like him". In Joel's case, he's a solid center in the NBA and for a team like our Trailblazers, knowing that you have an above average player at one position on the floor locked up for the next 5 years can't be anything but a positive move.
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