Thursday, July 05, 2007

Oden The Rookie

Greg Oden isn't going to average 30 points, 20 boards, and 10 blocks a game as a rookie, but what is he going to do? Here's a look at the dominant big men of the last 30 years in the NBA and what they did when they entered the league.

Tim Duncan: 21.1 points, 11.9 reb, 2.5 blocks
Shaq: 23.4 points, 13.9 reb, 3.5 blocks
The Dream: 20.6 points, 11.9 reb, 2.7 blocks
Patrick Ewing: 20.0 points, 9.0 reb, 2.1 blocks
David Robinson: 24.3 points, 12.0 reb, 3.9 blocks
Moses Malone: 18.8 points, 14.6 reb, 1.5 blocks
Lew Alcindor: 28.8 points, 14.5 reb, no block data available
Bill Walton: 12.8 points, 12.7 reb, 2.7 blocks

Now, obviously Oden is similar in style to some, completely different in other cases, but at least this is somewhat of a guide to what we can expect. The game's also gone through changes in defense, tempo, officiating, etc. For the most part the scoring is on an upswing but certainly nowhere near some of those players rookie seasons. Therefore, the official Lochi prediction for Greg Oden's numbers this year in Rip City are as follows:

18.5 points, 11.8 rebounds, 3.7 blocks. Basically I think his offensive game is a tad less polished than most, but I think his defensive game and rebounding is as good as anyone when they entered the league.


Luke said...

I'll say...


Oden: 19.5 12.5 2.9 1.5

Aldridge: 22.0 10.5 2.0 2.0

Roy: 17.5 5.5 .5 6.5

Anonymous said...

Oden will be great, but not this year. Those guys you're comparing him to weren't teenagers like Oden is.

18-20 ppg is probably being wildly optimistic about his transition, and 3.7 blocks a game would give him .4 more blocks per game than Marcus Camby, the NBA leader in block last year. Josh Smith was 2nd with 2.88, and Tim Duncan was 5th with 2.38.

More likely is scoring 12-15 ppg, 10-12 boards, and 2 blocks, and not starting very often until after the All-Star break.