Thursday, March 29, 2007

The Big Gamble

The 800 lb gorilla in the room is the way the Blazers played without Zach Randolph while he was on his "leave". Obviously they looked great, Aldridge played a dominant power forward. The All Star looked solid at the center position simply by rebounding, playing D, and staying out of the way of Aldridge, Roy, Jack, and Sergio when they were doing their thing. Yes, Zach has been great this year, and yes he's been vital to this team's success, but it's certainly possible that they're past needing him to shoulder the offensive responsibilities. Once that's no longer needed, his value goes way down. We've talked at great length about the Blazers either drafting a small forward or trading for one, and suddenly the trade route looks very appetizing given the following:

  • Rashard Lewis wants out of Seattle and wants a big contract.
  • You have to make contracts match up and Zach's is notoriously huge.
  • Joakim Noah's draft stock is falling slightly.

If the Blazers don't win the lottery and end up with Greg Oden, it seems as if they could take an enormous gamble and draft Noah, then trade Zach to Seattle for Rashard Lewis (along with some minor pieces going either way obviously). You're left with a starting 5 of Jack/Sergio, Roy, Lewis, Aldridge, and Noah. Noah's a known commodity, a great shot blocker, tough defender and rebounder, and an amazing energy guy. You throw him in the front court with Aldridge and you've got two guys who are more athletic than any one's front court could match.

It's the Blazers potential big gamble. I don't know if they'd have the guts to do it, but they'd suddenly be the most dangerous team in the NW Division heading into the 07/08 season.

Update: They just lost to the Griz at home, again, and I'd just like to say that regardless of the outcome I think it's a bad thing if Zach takes 26 shots and Aldridge and Roy take 22 combined.

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Junior

A delayed congrats to Brandon Roy and his new son Brandon Roy, Jr. Hopefully in 2025 when he's playing for the Ducks we'll all be taking great delight in Jr destroying the Huskies. Some other notes, thoughts, whatever:

The team is just hideous without Roy, that was a debacle in crunch time against the Bulls. Actually it looked a lot like last year.

Aldridge is better than Randolph, there I said it, now I feel better. I hope to have a long winded diatribe on this subject up in this space shortly.

On a related note, I guess we all grieve in different ways, but stopping off for a lapper on the way to the airport? Now that's some grieving right there.

I'm almost 100% certain the Blazers will explore a trade for Randolph this off season. Aldridge's natural position is the 4, they will be getting Joel back full time, and you could get a star caliber small forward for him. Seems like a no brainer to me.

You could add Corey Brewer to the list of players that wouldn't be bad for the Blazers to draft.

The Other Guy should be back in action very soon.

29-42, 11 games remaining. Let's get up to about 35 wins this season and make a serious run towards playing some playoff basketball in 2008. It's always nice when you bet the over on the season wins and it's already paid by mid-March.

PER Report will be up this weekend, seeing as how it's the end of March here pretty soon.

Monday, March 26, 2007

Rivalry

The national media appears to be talking up the rookie match up yesterday between Brandon Roy and Randy Foye. They were traded for each other on draft day and they play in the same division so it's possible we could be seeing a budding rivalry between the two. Here's a quick look at their rookie seasons overall:

Brandon Roy: 16.3 points, 4 assists, 4.4 rebounds, 1.24 steals, 17.79 PER

Randy Foye: 9.4 points, 2.7 assists, 2.6 rebounds, 0.6 steals, 13.59 PER

It's obviously Brandon Roy's world right now, and he's clearly going to win the Rookie of the Year, but Foye is definitely getting better out there. He seems to be a lot more inconsistent than Brandon is, 24 points one night, 4 the next. Should be interesting to watch going forward.

And yes, I'm still sulking over the loss to the Gators and their trannie center.

Friday, March 23, 2007

Sideshow Bob

I like to think I keep up on things with the Blazers, but I have to say that I had no idea they signed Sideshow Bob to a 10 day contract. I flipped over to the game last night, watching it equally between it and the tournament, and suddenly there's a guy that looks like he's a classic Oregon big man running up and down the floor. Supposedly his name is Luke Schenscher, but since I don't want to type that when I'm making fun of him, he's Sideshow Bob. I think Pritchard just got tired of all of us making fun of Jamaal Magloire and decided to find someone that was clearly worse. So congratulations Kevin, you win, Sideshow Bob is worse.

On the bright side, that's two in a row, and I'm really not concerned with their draft position. There's not a huge mathematical difference from being in the 6 to 9 spots in the ping pong ball derby. Brandon Roy almost certainly sealed the Rookie of The Year by crushing the Knicks in a must win game for them in front of all the East Coast honks.

I guess I should say something nice about The All Star in the interest of fairness. 14 points, 16 boards against the Knicks last night and he looked like a legitimate player. That's the type of game that could have got you traded to the Knicks earlier this year Jamaal, thanks for pulling it out now when we can't deal you for David Lee and Renaldo Balkman.

Big night tonight, Ducks, Vegas, 6:40 from St Louis. If they want to run and gun with us, be my guest. Ducks by 10.

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

The Foundation

So that's what life looks like without Z-bo:

Aldridge: 39 minutes, 25 points, 8 boards, 2 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks.

Roy: 36 minutes, 19 points, 12 boards, 3 assists, 1 steal.

Sergio: 22 minutes, 9 points, 9 assists, 2 boards.

A nice win over a legit Eastern Conference contender, although it's not like that's a huge accomplishment, I think the Blazers might be a contender in the East. Anyway, nice win, kept Agent Zero at bay (again), and stopped a long losing streak. Nice game fellas.

Rehashing an earlier point, if the Blazers have the opportunity, they HAVE to take Greg Oden. You put him with The Foundation and trade Z-bo for a legit small forward and you've got yourself a title contender for a decade. Under that scenario, Rashard Lewis should be target number 1.

I need to add Jeff Green from Georgetown to my list of players that I like in the draft if the Blazers don't catch lightning in a bottle with the lottery. He's like Udoka with a more well rounded game on the offensive side of the floor.

Tuesday, March 20, 2007

Over/Under: 50

Let's run through a few things here, The Black Mamba goes for a 7 under par 65, the Blazers mail one in against the Sonics so bad they should have changed the logo at half court to a postage stamp at halftime (although the dude cashing the half court shot for the car was pretty sweet), and now Blazers Blog favorite Agent Zero is coming to town. Gilbert Arenas is still on his vengeance tour, was mocked heartily for only scoring 9 last time, and considering recent developments I have nothing else but to advise the following...

Bet the over on 50 points tonight for the one and only Agent Zero.

Sunday, March 18, 2007

7 Under Par

News and notes for a Sunday evening:

I see Kobe threw in a 7 under par 65 on our boys while I was away. Tivo'd the game, are the Blazers ever going to double on a high screen? My God, you have to give Ime at least a little help on those picks.

He pushed off badly on that last one, everyone saw it, including the refs, but because it's Kobe of course they were too busy watching and not calling the game.

Raef LaFrentz says it's a lost year for him? Looks like it's time to award the "Firm Grasp of the Obvious" prize for 2007.

I thought about ranting and raving about the Ducks, but I'm a little too giddy to form a ton of rational thoughts right now.

If the Blazers wanted to entertain offers for Jack in the off season and get an impact 3 in return, I think they could do worse than to draft Aaron Brooks with one of their second round picks.

Go Butler.

Apparently the reason Spanish Chocolate hasn't been playing lately is his defense against other high end guards that they've been facing recently. Rubbish. He needs to play, he just provides too much, plus they need to see more of what they've got to plan for the off season.

They're currently down 10 at the half, at home, against the Sonics. Smooth 12 points in the second quarter there guys.

Just to reiterate...go Butler. Has anyone ever made the Final 4 without playing a major conference team? Miami of Ohio, Winthrop, Vegas, and Butler?

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

X Factor

Well, so much for the Gatorade X Factor being Martell Webster. Way to sack up there Marty, 13 minutes, 0 for 4 from the floor (0 for 3 from downtown), 0 points, 2 boards, 0 assists, and 2 turnovers. Solid F- performance by the Blazers bench last night led by Martell's suckfest, they only scored 12 points total.

On the bright side, LaMarcus Aldridge, yikes. He's becoming dominant late in the season, 24 points, 17 boards, 4 blocked shots. The thing I like the most about LaMarcus is his efficiency (shocker), he scored his 24 points on 17 shots, compare that to Zach who scored his 26 points on 27 shots. This is not going to be a bang on Zach post, but LaMarcus is quickly becoming a superior player in all aspects of the game. I have images of David Stern flipping over the card at the Lottery with the Blazers in the #2 spot and some team falling all over themselves for Kevin Durant with the top pick.

Let's get this out of the way now, I think the Blazers should draft Greg Oden if the opportunity presented itself. It's hard to go wrong with a starting 5 of Jack, Roy, Durant, Z-bo, and Aldridge. That would be amazing, but the fact of the matter is if you've got a dominant center like Oden you're guaranteed to be a contender every year, if you've got a dominant wing player you aren't (see Garnett, Kevin). Drafting Oden would put the Blazers in a tremendous position of power this summer. They'd have a massive chip to play, they could trade Zach for Luol Deng in Chicago in a sign and trade, or for Rashard Lewis in a sign and trade, both Chicago and Seattle are dying for a low post scorer. The Blazers would go into next year with a starting 5 of Jack, Roy, Deng/Lewis, Aldridge, and Oden. Aldridge and Oden together would be an interior force that the league hasn't seen since The Admiral retired. Bottom line, Oden makes the Blazers a title contender for the next 10 years. Durant probably does too, but that's the key, he "probably" does, you know Oden does.

Housekeeping note, this will be the last post until Monday. I'm off to Bandon Dunes for the weekend for some golf, watching hoops, and a whole lot of liquor. I may have to be checked into rehab with Brittany and her bald head when I get back. She'll be yammering on about god knows what while I'm rocking back and forth in the corner muttering something about Ernie Kent.

Tuesday, March 13, 2007

Pale Rider

Time to check out the window for a pale horse and a pale rider, or to see if the world has just stopped spinning. I just liked a commercial from the Blazers Marketing Dept and about 30 seconds later I agreed with Rice on the pregame show. Um...this is not good.

I'm calmly watching the pregame, usually looking for some good comedy like "we need Zach to play hard, get some rebounds and get his double double in order to win tonight". Then all of a sudden we hear that Freddy Jones is out tonight with an injured right hand sustained in practice (gee, I wonder how that happened, maybe we should keep him and Travis away from each other so they don't start in with dunk contests) and Rice then comments that Denver will want to push tempo and without Freddy we're going to need Martell to play well tonight. Couldn't agree more, he's going to have to knock down some jumpers to help out tonight.

The bigger surprise was the Van Halen "Right Now" montage they went with as their season tickets add. I really liked it. Usually I'm hear to poke fun at billboards with Ha on them or that ridiculous comic book thing they've had out recently, but this was quality. Lots of shots of dunks, as well as using some of the good will in the community, and trying to build on a little momentum from this season. Plus, I always kind of dug that song. The act is tired, the knock off on the video with the words scrolling along, but this add seemed to at least pull it off a bit. On the other hand, it might just be the alley-oop Freddy two hand reverse dunk against the Spurs that I can watch 1,000 times and not get bored. Who knows.

Anyway, surprisingly I like the Blazers tonight on the road in Denver. The Nuggets aren't playing too hot and this just feels like one the Blazers might sneak out.

Monday, March 12, 2007

Hoops News & Notes

It's that time again, and I can't really contain my excitement over my Ducks, but we'll get to them in a little bit. First, news and notes from around the league and some Blazer stuff.

  • LaMarcus has officially become the starting center and has played really well so far. Another solid 28 minutes in last night's win, 7 points, 9 boards, and a block. Needless to say, we really like him.
  • I haven't decided what I'm cheering for, the Blazers are dangerously close to finishing in about 9th place in the West, thus not making the playoffs and eliminating any chance to be in on the Oden/Durant sweepstakes. It's a minute chance anyway, so I lean towards the winning games side of things.
  • Brandon Roy, well, there's just no more discussion. I'm pretty sure his name is already engraved on the trophy.
  • Isiah Thomas just got an extension from the Knicks. I don't even have a joke, pretty much says it all by itself.
  • I can't really comprehend how any team can be 51-5 over any stretch of games, and I feel like a complete ass for thinking Phoenix is still going to beat them in a few months and I wouldn't put it past the Spurs. With The Other Guy unavoidably detained for another couple weeks, you have to put up with me making ridiculous claims like these without any repercussions.

And now onto my Duck related thoughts,

  • No, they aren't as good as they played last weekend. That's the best I've ever seen any Duck team play...ever.
  • If Malik decides to play that hard and Bryce Taylor has it going, they're going to be an awful tough team to beat by anyone.
  • The Pac 10 Tourney means a ton, regardless of what people may say about it. Five days ago the Ducks were a 7 seed at best and looking at a potential 1 and done scenario. Now they're a 3 and they've got cupcake city the first round (Miami of Ohio was 15-14 entering the MAC Tourney), and a Winthrop/Notre Dame winner in round 2. As long as they don't have one of those ice cold games (certainly possible), that's cruise control into the Sweet 16 game with Wisconsin, which would be epic.
  • Please, for the love of God, someone beat Florida before the Ducks have to play them. That would be a horrifying match up.
  • I currently have Florida, Georgetown, Kansas, and Ohio State in the Final 4, but the picks aren't official until Thursday morning. If you think that Florida isn't going to be changed to "Oregon" by then, well, you're kidding yourself.

Thursday, March 08, 2007

Going Dark

No, we're not slackers, but there will be a bit of down time in the next week or so. I'll be back at it next Monday, and The Other Guy will be unavoidably detained for a few weeks. A few quick non-Blazer related thoughts for your gambling addictions:

Don't underestimate USC playing at home in the Pac 10 tourney, they could make Stanford very nervous by the end of tonight.

Arizona usually mails it in, but this year they might have something to play for since they did finish 5th in the conference. Basically that's my way of saying I have no idea what to expect out of Ducks-Cats today.

I like UCLA in this thing, shocking, they're the best team.

Worst case scenario for the Ducks is to beat Arizona and UCLA and then lose to someone in the finals, playing 3 games in 3 nights, then getting one of those Thursday morning games on the East Coast. That would be bad.

Best case scenario would be either win the damn thing and get a top 4 seed in Spokane on Friday, or beat Arizona, lose a close one to UCLA and go home and rest and find out who's ass they get to kick next weekend.

Go Blazers, Go Ducks. See you all next week.

Tuesday, March 06, 2007

Draft Buzz

Since everyone seems to be doing an early draft report, I might as well chime in (why not, it's easy to copy what other people do). There are some ground rules, obviously it would be nice to have Oden or Durant. We don't really need to discuss it unless they win the Lottery. Rest assured, both myself and The Other Guy have our theories on what they should do, but we're going with the realistic approach today, that they'll be picking somewhere in the 7-10 range of the draft. We also know that they need a small forward, so that's where we'll concentrate our efforts for now. Here's a preliminary look at potential players they could draft.

Guys I Like:

Julian Wright, Kansas. Probably going to go too high for Portland, he's a do everything small forward. Described as a more aggressive Boris Diaw on ESPN.com, not sure if that's a compliment or not. A terrific defender that passes really well, he looks more like a Scottie Pippen type to me, and they even say he's got the ability to play a point forward like Scottie did. The only problem is he can't really shoot, which could deter the Blazers, they need shooters.

Thaddeus Young, Georgia Tech. This looks like your classic Trader Bob pick, uber athletic, attacks the basket, streaky shooter, really fun to watch. He actually reminds me a lot of Outlaw, ESPN's comparison is Al Harrington.

Chase Budinger, Arizona. This one could be my first pick for our team. Very versatile, tough as nails, can knock down jumpers and is a very good rebounder for a small forward. He's a lock to be the most despised guy in the league by rival teams. Dagger 3's, looks like he would have been in the Cobra Kai, you get the picture, he's the guy you want out there with Sergio and Roy on the wings to throw in some attitude.

Please...God...No:

Spencer Hawes, The Scumsucking Road Whores. Let's see, soft center that will get tossed around, only looks real good when he's being guarded by a guy that's way shorter or less athletic (pretty sure that's not happening in the NBA) and always gets the less rugged defender because of Brockman, and oh yeah, he's a Husky.

Brook Lopez, Stanford. I almost fell out of my chair when I saw him in the top 10 today. Um...no, not in this class.

Al Thornton, Florida State. You'd think I'd learn my lesson with the good college senior now that we have Brandon Roy, but he looks like the classic tweener 3/4 that played the 4 in college but can't quite play there in the NBA and would get eaten alive by good 3's. In other words, he wins the honorary Fennis Dembo Award.

Josh McRoberts, Duke. His chances of being even a remotely good NBA player are somewhere between zero and, well, zero.

Wild Card:

Yi Jianlian, China. This would be very Blazer of them, I have never seen him play, but he projects as a 7 foot Tony Kukoc. I know the knock is he's probably a bit soft but when I see that there's a 7 footer that can shoot and is a terrific ball handler and has a high basketball IQ, well, I'm intrigued. Considering the Blazers marketing department might be salivating over him, it's certainly possible.

Thursday, March 01, 2007

It's all Subterfuge and Innuendo

Subterfuge Stevie Patterson just officially resigned as President and GM, and the year of progress just keeps getting better and better. Brandon Roy, LaMarcus, and Sergio in the draft, Z-bo finally making The Leap, the team buying the arena back and not complaining about a broken financial model when the owner has $30+ bil, no arrests (during the season anyway), trading for Freddie Jones, and now Subterfuge Stevie is out. I'm not used to all of this, kind of makes me dizzy.

So Steve is out, unless it's all subterfuge, innuendo, and erroneous rumors, and Tod Leiweke is taking over. Leiweke is currently the CEO of the Seahawks, other than that, I know exactly nothing about him. I don't even know how to say the guy's name. Apparently the Blazers and Seahawks will also now be owned under the same corporate umbrella, Vulcan Sports & Entertainment, officially the dorkiest named sports corporation in the world. It's freaking named after Spock, I can't even make a good joke about that, it says it all by itself.

The key issue for us fans is who's calling the shots from a basketball operations standpoint. I think this means that Kevin Pritchard is now The Guy, and there's always been rampant speculation that he has been for the past year anyway. It's well known that he has Paul Allen's ear, he seems like a likable, bright, energetic guy, basically the exact opposite of Subterfuge Stevie. I had a feeling that it was Pritchard who engineered the draft day larceny that netted the Blazers with The Foundation, now it looks like his coup is complete.

I should mention that I'm going to miss having Steve Patterson to kick around, it's obvious that I didn't like him (who did?). His bullying, somber press conferences, his silly 25 Pieces of Flair for the franchise, his undermining of John Nash, and his handling of the Darius Miles situation which led to the classic exchange with the Oregonian where he said all of their reports were filled with subterfuge, innuendo, and erroneous rumors, only to have them all proven true a couple days later. He was an easy target, but he was also a very deserving target. Adios Stevie, don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.

Spreadpredictor Game 5


Your fearless Moderator tries to put a halt to his three-game losing streak, while The Loch can’t seem to do much better.

Portland vs Charlotte
Line:
Portland –6.5

Moderator (1-3): Portland.  They’ve got to stop playing like garbage at some point.  I don’t think we’ll see Zbo and ROY lay dual-eggs again.  And for what it’s worth, I also like the under (192).

Lochi (1-3): “Roberto Gato.  The Blazers should clobber Charlotte.”


Wednesday, February 28, 2007

"I Respectfully Request To Not Fully Agree, Sir."

I don’t “disagree” with the Martell take ... I simply don’t fully agree with it.  

Call me Sweden.

Alright, I am not saying that Martell Webster is “a good player” right now. Clearly he is not. At all.  What I think is that for a high school player who goes straight to the NBA, the first 2+ years are a "pass".  Plain and simple.   And if you’re talking about a PG, the first 3 years are a pass.  I believe you should see marked improvement in year 3 for most players, and I won’t yet go into “bust” or “panic” mode until we’re halfway through the player’s third year and he hasn’t shown much progress.  We’re 2/3 of the way through Martell’s second year; he’s played 119 games that don’t include cheerleaders with braces.  I’m willing to be a bit more patient.

I will admit that the lack of improvement is concerning. You could make the argument that the same stats on a better team is an improvement, but that is really only applicable to counting stats like PPG, RPG, etc. --  not shooting percent.  So while it is "concerning", I am not ready to count him out yet.

Hey – you gotta give him this, his defense has improved. Instead of "total abomination” he's merely "bad".

Tuesday, February 27, 2007

February PER Update

Seeing as how we're going to attempt to move past these last two games as quickly as possible, the monthly PER Report, with February now officially in the books. As always, 15 is the league average, and in alphabetical order:

LaMarcus Aldridge: 14.54. Slipped a bit as the season has gone on but it's obvious to everyone that he's the best center on the team. His jumper looks stunningly like Sheed's, and it's not that hard to see their comparisons in overall style of play, except The Marcus isn't a raving lunatic.

Dan Dickau: 10.08. The fact that I even have to discuss him is Nate's fault. When Sergio was on the shelf then Dickau had to play, now that Sergio is healthy Dickau should be warming the end of the bench. He stinks, but he's not been a complete disaster at times. How's that for a review of his play?

Jarrett Jack: 15.55. I go back and forth on Jarrett all the time. Sometimes I think he's the future, sometimes I think he's great trade bait when Sergio is fully ready to play 35 a night. Jarrett is a solid NBA point guard though, that much is clear.

Freddie Jones and Raef LaFrentz: Incomplete.

The All Star: 11.05. Clearly he's been better since his early season numbers, hovering around the 5 range. He still sucks, but he's necessary now with Joel's injury.

Travis Outlaw: 14.90. He also qualifies as an enigma for me. Sometimes I think he's great, sometimes I think he's terrible. That's pretty much how he plays. I think he's the most likely to be dealt this off season in some sort of package for a real starting SF.

Joel: Mercifully this season might be over for him. I like Joel, I won't bother ripping a guy who's had a lost season due to various injuries.

Z-bo: 22.72. It's been dropping a bit as the season has worn on, but I could make a case that he's getting better. He's taking fewer shots and being more effective. It does appear that he's wearing down a bit, his style has a tendency to do that over 80 games of bludgeoning people in the key.

Sergio: 16.42. Now that he's healthy, he has to play 20 minutes a night minimum to see what exactly we have going into the off season plans.

Brandon Roy: 17.49. I suppose we could talk about the comedy aspect that he's now referred to almost exclusively by his full name, they should just put "Brandonroy" on his jersey. The one budding superstar in the league that doesn't have a silly nickname. What else can we talk about? He's awesome, he's been awesome, we all know this.

Ime Udoka: 12.11. Solid player, would be a GREAT 15-20 minute energy guy at the 3 behind a really good starter (like Rashard Lewis). Good story, should be a Blazer for at least the next 3-5 years. Just don't get crazy with that contract extension down there guys.

Martell Webster: 9.88. Alright, I have to say it because nobody else will...he stinks. He's the worst on the roster, not including Joel and LaFrentz who have been hurt all year. I know he's a good guy, but he's just not a good player. He's terrible on defense, he floats on offense, and for a supposed sniper, 35.7% from downtown is piss poor. The only reason Travis is higher on my list of dudes that could be gone in a package this off season is because he has some tangible value that people want. Martell I get the feeling everyone pretty much knows by now that he's a passive sniper that can't really shoot all that well.

Bad Times

It was fun while it lasted. I suppose I should be thankful that they didn't drag this thing out and keep me on the edge of my seat, but it would have been nice if it lasted longer than a week. How can you beat the Jazz and the Lakers, not only beat but look like clearly the better team in both games, and then go out and lose to the Griz and the Sonics back to back after closing to within a couple games of the 8 spot? That's a disaster.

Last night's game up in Seattle might have been the worst effort I've seen in a while from this bunch that, to their credit, brings it almost every night. Last night was not one of those nights. At least I hope it was just a glaring lack of hustle and effort, because if the game plan was to let Rashard Lewis shoot wide open jumpers from 5 feet and out, that's not good. Oh, and Ray Allen can shoot too, might want to guard him.

I also caught Quick's pre-game notes on The Fan and if you haven't heard the news, Joel is scheduled for another MRI later this week and it's certainly possible that he's done for the year. That means a lot more playing time for The All Star, bad times, but probably kicks The Marcus up to about 25 a night as well, which is nice. The Marcus was the one guy out there that looked like he gave a crap last night, 12 points and 8 boards in 26 minutes. Freddy made his debut as well, he hustled and did some nice things out there but he didn't come into the game until they were down 20 and I was pretty much catatonic by that point. One thing's for sure, if Brandon Roy and Z-bo are going to combine to go 8 for 26 from the floor and 1 for 2 from the line, they're going to get blown out.

Monday, February 26, 2007

Q&A with RaptorsHQ

Late last week, your faithful moderator participated in a Q&A with Adam over at RaptorsHQ, one of the better Raptor blogs out there. What transpired is below. I'll include his questions and answers first, followed by the questions he asked me.

1. Why did Toronto make this deal? Purely to get out of Freddy's contract, or were they specifically looking for an off-the-bench shooter?
I think there were two main factors at work here in terms of why Toronto made the deal.
First of all, he simply wasn't performing up to expectations. After a solid pre-season in which he won the starting 2-guard spot and looked to be the slashing guard Toronto so desired, Jones stopped stopped getting to the rim and started shooting an inordinate amount of perimeter shots considering his accuracy from long-range. (This was extremely frustrating since 1) Jones' is such a great free-throw shooter that even drawing three shooting fouls a game would give Toronto an extra six points on their final score and 2) Toronto fans had just gone through this "I'd rather shoot jump-shots" situation with Vince Carter.) In any event, the jump-shots he was settling for weren't going in, and Jones found himself seated firmly on the pine.
Once it became obvious that Mo Pete and even Joey Graham had passed him on the depth chart, it made sense to move Jones considering the size of his contract and how unlikely it was that he'd regain much playing time. Therefore it was factor A which then led to factor B.
As for looking for an off-the-bench shooter, I don't think that was primarily what Colangelo had set out to do. I think he was simply looking to rid himself of Jones' contract after realizing that the former Duck just wasn't a good fit for the Raps, and would take what he could get in return.
2. When Freddy was first signed, what was the general reaction?
Interesting question as many may remember how the Raptors had originally courted John Salmons before he left Toronto hanging dry and moved on to Sacramento. Therefore fans were overjoyed that Toronto could get someone to take Salmons' place, let alone an athlete like Jones, and many believed that Freddie was an even better option than Salmons in the first place!
3. Did you watch Freddy at Indiana, and do you think the reason he couldn't match the production he gave there was because his skills had changed or deteriorated or he wasn't working as hard, or because the Raptors' system and personnel didn't go with his game?
I watched Jones a lot at Indiana and while I prefered Salmons over him, I did really think he could have a breakout year with the Raps. The Pacers played such a "slow-down, half-court, get the ball to O'Neal" style that I thought he'd excel under Raptors' coach Sam Mitchell's up and down approach. On top of this, I didn't feel he got the minutes that he needed in Indiana to be effective so it seemed like Freddie and the Raptors would be a perfect fit. However Toronto's offence changed about 10 games into the season and I think that yes, the change in system did have an effect on Jones' game. It seemed like he no longer knew his role in the offense and this is about when he started settling for jump-shots instead of driving the ball to the rim. And being that he's hardly Ray Allen from the perimeter, when his jump-shots (even open ones) stopped falling, he seemed to lose his confidence. Therefore I don't think his skillset deteriorated or that he stopped working hard, (believe me, Sam Mitchell gives Joey Graham enough grief so we would have heard if he was having issues with Freddie in that respect) I mainly think he just lost his place in the offence and this affected his confidence. However I'd also like to add that I think we all over-valued him when he arrived in Toronto. Whereas upon his signing I viewed him as a great sixth man in the league, I reaslitically think he's more suited to be an eigth or ninth guy on a good team.
4. Did he play the "2" exclusively, or did he play any SF?
Yes, Jones played the 2 almost exclusively for Toronto although did act on occasion as a 2/1 handling the ball in pre-season.


Now, the questions I answered.

1. Why did Portland make this deal?
Several reasons:
-Portland has needed some good PR in the worst way. The club bringing back a former University of Oregon star in Fred Jones makes everyone happy; even if he is a backup at best.
-Dixon wasn't bringing a whole lot to the table this year. People talk about him being a "good shooter", but in 131 games with Portland he shot 43% from the field and 37% from 3pt. That's a decent enough three point shot, but not "great". -Dixon didn't have a long-term future with the team. He's a liability on defense because of his size, and with Brandon Roy and Martell Webster, Portland already has it's 2-guard of the future and its shooting specialist of the future.
-This allows Brandon Roy to slide over to PG and not have a liability on defense next to him.
-Throw in Freddy's commitment to not pick up the player option and the "future considerations", and it became a no-brainer.
-And, you can't talk about Freddy without mentioning his athleticism. A few crowd-pleasing throwdowns certainly won't hurt Rose Garden attendence.


2. Why wasn't Dixon fitting into the Blazers regular rotation?
Last year and the first half of this year, Portland needed someone to fill minutes while the youngsters matured. That's just not the case anymore. With Brandon Roy being ready to start full-time right now, Dixon became a bench player. And with Sergio Rodriguez taking over the backup PG position, you simply can't play Rodriguez and Dixon together; they're both too undersized. Add to that Martell Webster's slow maturation into being ready to be a bench player, and Nate McMillan's continuing emphasis on defense, and Dixon just didn't have a role. Portland has been trying to establish a regular rotation all season, and Rodriguez, Webster, Travis Outlaw and LaMarcus Aldridge all need more minutes off the bench at this point.

3. Will Fred Jones be a better fit with Portland?
Probably a little bit. There's going to be a monthlong-or-so honeymoon period with him, purely because he is a former Oregon Duck star. (I'm a U of Oregon alum myself, and I'm fairly giddy to see him in a Portland uniform. At Fred's press conference yesterday, he was saying things like "I used to lay in my room at night when I was a kid and dream about playing for Portland" and "I just can't wipe the smile off my face, I'm so happy to be here, and this team is going to get 110% of everything I've got.") I think the addition of Freddy sort of turns Portland from a 9-man rotation to a 10-man rotation, and I see him getting about 10-15 minutes per night off the bench, backing up Brandon Roy at the 2-guard and playing the "3" in the small lineup. Nate McMillan rewards players who work hard, and it sounds like Fred's going to do that. Honestly, you could make the argument that Portland has gone from one mediocre backup SG to another, but we're still excited about it.


4. What can Juan Dixon bring to the Raptors?
I may sound down on Dixon, but he does have some value. For a long period of time in Portland he was the starting 2, which won't be a problem for you guys, but that's too much for him to handle. He's a guy who you can tell right away if he's "on" that night, and should be used as a shooter off the bench. He can provide some decent three-point shooting to relax the defense a little off of your inside guys when he's on. But he doesn't add much beyond that; he's a mediocre passer, a decent ballhandler, and a poor defender. I'll say this, he isn't afraid to put it up, hot or cold. We called him "Stop Shooting Juan" for awhile there last seson, but he did hit some big shots. And, he's a great character guy. I think he has had some terrible trajedies in his life that he has overcome (drug-addicted mother growing up, father died young, etc).


5. If he doesn't get minutes, will that be a problem?
Not at all. To Juan's credit, he's been jerked around a little bit in Portland -- losing minutes to younger players, sporadic playing time, seldomly defined role, etc -- and has handled it very well with very minimal complaining. I think going to a team like Toronto who's in the thick of a playoff race will be good for him, he's a very solid guy who will just enjoy the competition.

Spreadpredictor: Game 4

We both whiffed on the Blazers-Grizzlies game, and I didn’t see the game but apparently the team played like garbage. Moving on, the Blazers are getting 6.5 points tonight at Seattle, a line which I feel is utterly preposterous.

Portland @ Seattle
Line: Portland +6.5

Moderator (1-2): “I like Portland and the points. I even like Portland to win the game outright, and to prove this, I put my money where my mouth is. (Literally. Check my bodog account.)”

Lochi (1-2): "Blazers. Still pissed about the Memphis game. Freddy is going to posterize Rid.”

Saturday, February 24, 2007