As most of you have probably heard by now, the Blazers this evening defied the odds and landed the #3 pick in the NBA lottery draft. With the fifth-worst record in the NBA, Portland made a big jump, climbing two spots. The official draft order at the top:
1. Milwaukee
2. Atlanta
3. Portland
At first appearance, one would think that Milwaukee -- needing a big man -- would snatch up Andrew Bogut. Atlanta subsequently grabs PG Chris Paul, and Marvin Williams -- the multi-talented freshman from North Carolina (who nearly came out after high school last year) -- falls into Portland's lap. Given my personal opinion that Bogut doesn't have the skills to justify a top-ten pick and given that Portland already has a very talented point guard of the future in Sebastian Telfair, this would seem to be an ideal situation for Portland.
However, there's already been rampant speculation regarding what Portland will do with the pick. ESPN thinks Milwaukee may grab Williams. Mike Rice, at the Blazers' draft part, threw out the idea of trading the pick and Nick Van Exel to Milwaukee for Michael Redd. Kevin Pritchard indicated that the team had between "five and seven" players that they are interested in. John Nash stated that Portland had already received calls from teams interested in exploring a trade. He also said they would likely take the "best available player", regardless of position, although it's difficult to believe that the club would take Paul, and Nash is likely posturing. Regardless, Nash certainly has been given another very strong tool with which to further improve the team this offseason.
Here's a look at the past five #3 picks:
2004: Ben Gordon
2003: Carmelo Anthony
2002: Mike Dunleavy
2001: Pau Gasol
2000: Darius Miles
Personally, I find it difficult to believe that Portland would deal the pick. I imagine it'll come down to drafting either Williams, Bogut, or Gerald Green ... but we'll speculate more within the next few weeks.
Thoughts? Email us here. I'm curious to hear what some of you are thinking after today's good news.
Tuesday, May 24, 2005
Monday, May 23, 2005
Mo Cheeks hired by Philly
The Philadelphia 76ers today fired a perfectly good coach, Jim O'Brien, and replaced him with a horrible one, Mo Cheeks.
Not a huge surprise. O'Brien has had medium levels of success both in Philly and in Boston, but he never quite clicked with some of Philly's younger players and his defensive scheme never quite caught on. Although in his defense, when you've got no-D guys like AI, Webber, and Kyle Korver on your roster, I'm not sure what kind of a scheme would catch.
Nonetheless, I'd actually describe Philly as one of few situations where Cheeks is a fit. Not a good fit, but not a bad fit. Simply a "fit". We all know that Mo isn't a big X's and O's guy, and doesn't run many set plays. Philly isn't a big X's and O's team, who doesn't run many set plays either. Watching them over the last half of the season, it felt like the squad either ran "clear out for AI", "set up Kyle Korver for a three pointer", or "drop the ball down to Cwebb and watch him pound it into the ground." Philly will always be mediocre with AI and Cwebb leading the charge, and Mo Cheeks is the perfect coach to help drive them further into mediocrity.
Not a huge surprise. O'Brien has had medium levels of success both in Philly and in Boston, but he never quite clicked with some of Philly's younger players and his defensive scheme never quite caught on. Although in his defense, when you've got no-D guys like AI, Webber, and Kyle Korver on your roster, I'm not sure what kind of a scheme would catch.
Nonetheless, I'd actually describe Philly as one of few situations where Cheeks is a fit. Not a good fit, but not a bad fit. Simply a "fit". We all know that Mo isn't a big X's and O's guy, and doesn't run many set plays. Philly isn't a big X's and O's team, who doesn't run many set plays either. Watching them over the last half of the season, it felt like the squad either ran "clear out for AI", "set up Kyle Korver for a three pointer", or "drop the ball down to Cwebb and watch him pound it into the ground." Philly will always be mediocre with AI and Cwebb leading the charge, and Mo Cheeks is the perfect coach to help drive them further into mediocrity.
Thursday, May 19, 2005
Eastern Conference Finals
With the ass-whooping that Detroit delievered on Tuesday, I think it's safe to say that the Eastern Conference Finals are set (sorry, Indiana fans). With most of us being Blazer fans, you might not care (in that case skip down to the analysis of the team extending GM John Nash's contract below), but for those of us who do, let's take a quick look at it.
Both teams have a nice compliment of inside-outside players, and are clearly the class of the Eastern Conference. The way I see it, the entire series rests on two key components: 1. The health of Shaquille O'Neal's legs, and 2. The abillity of Tayshaun Prince to defend Dwayne Wade.
Clearly the Heat need Shaq to be at least 80% going into this series. He's had plenty of rest and is saying all of the right things, but until we see him back on the floor it's tough to assume that he'll be going full-board. The more variable component appears to be number two. Wade is on fire right now, and looks unguardable at times. Of course, we all thought that about Kobe Bryant last year, and the defense Prince played on Kobe was phenomenal. In fact, you can argue that he should have garenered some Finals MVP consideration for that alone. If Prince can lock down Wade the same way he locked down Kobe last year, you've got to think Detroit has a great chance to get past Miami.
Another item to watch in that series will be Ben Wallace on offense. With his inability to consistently hit a jumper, will Miami leave Shaq close to paint to assist on help-defense and leave Big Ben all alone near the elbow? Keep an eye on those aspects, as that could be the best series we see in these playoffs.
Both teams have a nice compliment of inside-outside players, and are clearly the class of the Eastern Conference. The way I see it, the entire series rests on two key components: 1. The health of Shaquille O'Neal's legs, and 2. The abillity of Tayshaun Prince to defend Dwayne Wade.
Clearly the Heat need Shaq to be at least 80% going into this series. He's had plenty of rest and is saying all of the right things, but until we see him back on the floor it's tough to assume that he'll be going full-board. The more variable component appears to be number two. Wade is on fire right now, and looks unguardable at times. Of course, we all thought that about Kobe Bryant last year, and the defense Prince played on Kobe was phenomenal. In fact, you can argue that he should have garenered some Finals MVP consideration for that alone. If Prince can lock down Wade the same way he locked down Kobe last year, you've got to think Detroit has a great chance to get past Miami.
Another item to watch in that series will be Ben Wallace on offense. With his inability to consistently hit a jumper, will Miami leave Shaq close to paint to assist on help-defense and leave Big Ben all alone near the elbow? Keep an eye on those aspects, as that could be the best series we see in these playoffs.
Portland Picks Up Option on Nash
As most of you have inevitably heard by now, the Blazers exercised their option on John Nash yesterday, bringing him back as the club's GM for another year.
This is very disappointing news. Portland just polished off its worst season in 30 years, and you don't make a change at the top? Granted, Nash walked into a bad situation two seasons ago -- but he's made the situation worse, not better. The Rasheed Wallace trade was a good one at the time, but he messed it up by not getting anything in return for Shareef at this year's trading deadline. Last season, he vastly overpaid both Zach Randolph and Darius Miles, when both would have been restricted free agents this coming offseason and the team could have matched any offer that either player received. And after this year, there's no way that either player would have received close to what Portland gave. He also vastly overpaid Theo Ratliff with his contract extension. I was in favor of extending Theo's deal ... but $48 million for a guy who has a history of injury problems and half-seasons of success? It seemed a bit much at the time.
At the press conference (which you can download the audio for from a link here), both Steve Patterson and John Nash touched on several topics. A few highlights:
This is very disappointing news. Portland just polished off its worst season in 30 years, and you don't make a change at the top? Granted, Nash walked into a bad situation two seasons ago -- but he's made the situation worse, not better. The Rasheed Wallace trade was a good one at the time, but he messed it up by not getting anything in return for Shareef at this year's trading deadline. Last season, he vastly overpaid both Zach Randolph and Darius Miles, when both would have been restricted free agents this coming offseason and the team could have matched any offer that either player received. And after this year, there's no way that either player would have received close to what Portland gave. He also vastly overpaid Theo Ratliff with his contract extension. I was in favor of extending Theo's deal ... but $48 million for a guy who has a history of injury problems and half-seasons of success? It seemed a bit much at the time.
At the press conference (which you can download the audio for from a link here), both Steve Patterson and John Nash touched on several topics. A few highlights:
- Nash didn't expect this to happen today, and he's "delighted to have to opportunity" to continue to the "job started in 2003 of cleaning up the roster and reducing the monstrous payroll."
- A reporter (I believe it was Canzano) asked Nash to grade himself, and he declined. That same reporter asked Patterson to grade Nash, and he also declined. That reporter followed up with a question to Patterson asking what part of Nash's performance did he think warranted bringing Nash back, and Patterson dodged that question as well.
- Nash stated that his "first order of business is finding a new head coach". Patterson goes on to mention that the team has complied a short list, but wouldn't say or answer any questions regarding who was on it. They did mention that they'd like to have the individual in place prior to the draft at the end of June.
- Once the team's draft position is firmed up, then they'll start working out possible lottery picks.
Furthermore, Chad Ford from ESPN.com took a question on the Blazers in his chat today:
Matt (san francisco): Chad, the Blazers picked up their option on their GM Steve Nash (ha) yesterday. After horrible moves such as overpaying Randolph, Miles, and Ratliff, and failing to improve the team at the trade deadline, some of us are upset. What's your take? THANKS!
Chad Ford: (12:47 PM ET ) Gotta love the Blazers. Nash had a tough job to do in Portland, but the bottom line was that he actually made things worse. I wouldn't take his re-signing as a good sign either. Who is giving Paul Allen advice these days?
The one positive spin we can all put on this is that the option Portland picked up is only for one year. Coincidently, Kiki Vandeweighe's contract as Denver's GM remains at one year as well. That's too far away to speculate, but one has to wonder, especially considering Patterson's statement that he'd like to involve ex-Blazers in the front office. As for Nash, the team obviously feels he's done something right. I disagree, and I find today's news quite depressing. Between Van Exel's contract, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, and what will likely be a top-5 draft pick, Nash has plenty to work with for this offseason to improve the club. He'd better work some magic because after this past season and the lack of improvement at the deadline, I'm not sure that the fans can take another session of passive movement.
update: (11:41 am)
After re-listening to the audio of the press conference, there was something else that Nash said that I wanted to touch on:
"I've gotten some very positive emails about the performance of the younger guys, people have been telling me that they're willing to have some patience and watch some of these young guys perform ... Obviously, some of the veteran players didn't live up to their contracts or perform at the level that they were expected to perform at. As a result, we're not as good of a team as we were maybe when those guys originally got here. But in the two years that I'm here, the one thing I couldn't have predicted when I got here was how much this organization and team would miss players like Pippen and Sabonis. Not just for their play on the floor but for what they
contributed in the way of leadership in the locker room. Now, with a much younger team ... we've got to find some leadership. And it may be that the leader of this team is a 19 year old point guard, but I'd like to get him some veteran help."
Clearly, he's looking to not bring in more youth, but rather provide some stable, veteran leadership. Does that point to the club trading its draft pick? Probably a stretch, but it's interesting to know that Nash is looking for veterans rather than more younger pieces. However, the team appears to have a tremendous amount of confidence in Sebastian Telfair, which is another good sign. It seems he'll have the reins next season.
Tuesday, May 17, 2005
The 2005 NBA Playoffs
A post on another hoops blog got me thinking ... why are there no good tv color men for basketball?
There are plenty of decent play-by-play guys, and they generally stay out of the way. But I get annoyed by almost every ex-coach or jock that ESPN and TNT roll out. Steve Kerr is alright, but Lenny Wilkens, Doug Collins, John Thompson, even Mike Fratello earlier in the year, were all HORRIBLE. Awful. At least Bill Walton has reached the "Dick Vitale" stage in his career where you blow off everything he says anyways and just seems happy to be there. But all of these guys are terrible. They've got a maddeningly strong flair for the obvious, don't give us any insight, and are typically full of themselves. I'd love to transplant Howard Cosell back from the dead to put a few of them in their place.
This does relate to the TrailBlazers ... in case you missed it, the Portland Tribune is reporting that Brian Wheeler will "likely" return to the Blazers' broadcasting team next season, but more importantly, Steve Jones' status with the team is undecided. The tribune quotes the following:
That's not good news. I've always enjoyed Steve Jones, for multiple reasons. It wasn't a surprise when NBC -- and then ABC -- snatched him up, and it's a shame we might not get to enjoy him as much next year, although it sounds like the Blazer front office may have something to do with that as well. If Jones is indeed replaced, here's hoping they don't bring in another cheerleader ... I'm not sure if we can take two Brian Wheeler's.
There are plenty of decent play-by-play guys, and they generally stay out of the way. But I get annoyed by almost every ex-coach or jock that ESPN and TNT roll out. Steve Kerr is alright, but Lenny Wilkens, Doug Collins, John Thompson, even Mike Fratello earlier in the year, were all HORRIBLE. Awful. At least Bill Walton has reached the "Dick Vitale" stage in his career where you blow off everything he says anyways and just seems happy to be there. But all of these guys are terrible. They've got a maddeningly strong flair for the obvious, don't give us any insight, and are typically full of themselves. I'd love to transplant Howard Cosell back from the dead to put a few of them in their place.
This does relate to the TrailBlazers ... in case you missed it, the Portland Tribune is reporting that Brian Wheeler will "likely" return to the Blazers' broadcasting team next season, but more importantly, Steve Jones' status with the team is undecided. The tribune quotes the following:
The TV analyst missed a number of Blazer games this season due to national commitments with ESPN and ABC, and he flies to Connecticut for ABC’s Sunday studio show each week. He may choose to end his long-standing relationship with the Blazers and stick with his national duties. One other factor: Blazer hierarchy is not thrilled with Jones’ frank and unbiased comments about the team, which is appreciated by this and many other listeners.
That's not good news. I've always enjoyed Steve Jones, for multiple reasons. It wasn't a surprise when NBC -- and then ABC -- snatched him up, and it's a shame we might not get to enjoy him as much next year, although it sounds like the Blazer front office may have something to do with that as well. If Jones is indeed replaced, here's hoping they don't bring in another cheerleader ... I'm not sure if we can take two Brian Wheeler's.
Webber denies story
In the least surprising announcement of the day, Chris Webber has denied that the story from the Daily News (which, as a commenter below noted is one step above the NY Post). This doesn't change anything about what type of player he is, but I will give him credit for this -- it's refreshing to hear a player acknowledge his own faults (registration required) rather than hold others accountable. I imagine he won't be leaving Philly any time soon. Webber essentially said that the problems he has are with himself not having the same ability last season as he's had in past seasons, not with anyone else.
Monday, May 16, 2005
Chris Webber wants out of Philly, other NBA items
Now that is funny. It doesn't necessarily have any Blazer ramifications, but it's worthy NBA news.
Anyone want to pay a slow, hobbled, injury-prone, mentally weak power forward who grinds downyour offense and demands the ball $63 million over the next threeyears? Yeah I didn't think so.
Is there a single team in the nba that he would be good for? You can make an argument that due to his contract, nobody would be a good fit. I doubt Webber would be willing to go to a bottom-feeder, so supposed for a moment only the teams in the playoffs are possibilities. There aren't really any good, playoff-caliber teams who play a slow half court game that don't already have a good power forward.
The three teams who play that style and are in the playoffs who come to mind immediately are Houston, San Antonio, and Detroit. Detroit clearly is out, they've got a glut of PF's with Wallace, Wallace, and McDyess. Houston already has Juwon Howard (who is ironically right about where Webber is these days - a big man with good hands who can board a but is mediocre on D and slows down any running you might want do do), and they don't have nearly enough assets to trade to get him, as Houston is one of the league's thinnest teams.
The Spurs could use a low post scorer like Webber, but then Duncan becomes a full time center, and Webber takes up too much space on the blocks for Timmy! to do his cutting-across-the-paint maneuvering. The Spurs are also a team built largely on cohesion, and Webber isn't exactly known as a big team-first guy.
Catching up on a few other things in the NBA:
Anyone want to pay a slow, hobbled, injury-prone, mentally weak power forward who grinds downyour offense and demands the ball $63 million over the next threeyears? Yeah I didn't think so.
Is there a single team in the nba that he would be good for? You can make an argument that due to his contract, nobody would be a good fit. I doubt Webber would be willing to go to a bottom-feeder, so supposed for a moment only the teams in the playoffs are possibilities. There aren't really any good, playoff-caliber teams who play a slow half court game that don't already have a good power forward.
The three teams who play that style and are in the playoffs who come to mind immediately are Houston, San Antonio, and Detroit. Detroit clearly is out, they've got a glut of PF's with Wallace, Wallace, and McDyess. Houston already has Juwon Howard (who is ironically right about where Webber is these days - a big man with good hands who can board a but is mediocre on D and slows down any running you might want do do), and they don't have nearly enough assets to trade to get him, as Houston is one of the league's thinnest teams.
The Spurs could use a low post scorer like Webber, but then Duncan becomes a full time center, and Webber takes up too much space on the blocks for Timmy! to do his cutting-across-the-paint maneuvering. The Spurs are also a team built largely on cohesion, and Webber isn't exactly known as a big team-first guy.
Catching up on a few other things in the NBA:
-Blazer Coaching Rumors
There have been rumors circulating that Paul Allen met with Flip Saunders and offered him a five-year, $40 million contract. Wow. I've said since the search began that Flip would be a great guy to bring in and help right the ship, but that's an awfully large commitment to make to a guy who's won two playoff series' in 10 years of coaching. That is, if the rumors are true.
Personally, I hope the Blazers stay away from the Phil Jackson sweepstakes. We all know he's ending up with the Lakers, and only the Knicks are foolish enough to make public attraction's towards the Zen Master's way. Jackson wouldn't be right for Portland, and I doubt they'd be able to land him anyways.
-How about those Sonics?
Nobody gave them a chance; now they've won two straight games, are getting fantastic guard play, and have evened up the series. It's great to see Luke Ridnour doing things that we all saw him do for three years at U of O ... pushing the tempo, making fantastic passes and hitting clutch jumpers.
Sunday, May 01, 2005
Catching up on the NBA Playoffs
We’re nearing the end of the first round, with two sweeps already completed and a few other series heating up. A few random thoughts over the weekend, with our first Playoff Power Rankings at the end...
- After Houston won the first two games of their series, I commented to a friend on email that “You know Dallas isn’t done in this series yet. Watching the play, you just get the feeling that we’ll be hearing a lot more from them before this series is over. Odds are that they win the next two games in Houston and bring everyone back down to earch.” Well, after seeing them win games three and four, I think they’re going to win the series. Houston’s performance at the end of game four – when they had several chances to win the game and were turning the ball over, making bad passes, and missing long jumpers – they don’t look like a confident club anymore and I wouldn’t be surprised if the series was over in six.
- Did anyone notice that it’s taken former Blazer Bonzi Wells one and a half seasons to wear out his welcome in Memphis? He missed the team’s shootaround on Sunday and didn’t play in the game. As a matter of fact, not only did he not play, he wasn’t even in the building, and it was a “mutual decision”, and TNT reported that it’s the culmination of an entire season’s worth of friction with Memphis coach Mike Fratello. In a more interesting note, former Blazer coach and current Clipper coach Mike Dunleavy called the Memphis-Phoenix game for TNT and it would have been nice to hear his thoughts on the situation, which he never provided, saying only “Bonzi played very well for me in Portland.” Disappointing considering that there was rumored friction between he and Bonzi when Dunleavy coached Portland. I believe that Bonzi only has one more year left on his deal, so he’ll be easy for Memphis to trade this offseason. And with Mike Miller around, they don’t really need him that much anyways.
- Speaking of Dunleavy, once you learn to ignore his annoying accent, he’s a very good color-man and I hope TNT uses him further as the playoffs progress.
- The “Phoenix Model for Success”: 1. Get a dominant low post big man. 2. Surround him with a fantastic lightning quick point guard and several excellent shooters. Look at Portland’s team … they’re halfway there. They've got the dominant low post scorerand the laser quick PG, now they need to find some shooters somewhere, and viola you have Phoenix v 2.0. Yes, I know it’s quite a stretch.
- Anyone else think that Cleveland could have put up a better fight against Miami in the first round of the playoffs? Only one of Miami’s four straight wins over New Jersey was even close, though it was nice to see Dick Jefferson back. Now the speculation for New Jersey will center around Jason Kidd and whether he’ll demand a trade this offseason. If New Jersey can land a decent big man (Theo Ratliff?), that may be enough to convince Kidd that the Nets can be competitive next year.
- I hope that Phil Jackson goes to either the Lakers or the Knicks, so he can be exposed as what he really is: a fraud who won championships by riding the coattails of MJ and Shaq.
- Watching San Antonio come out in game two and blow out the Nuggets was impressive, and a huge testament to Greg Popovich. You could tell they’d been reading some of the press, claiming Duncan was too hurt and San Antonio didn’t have the weapons to keep up with a hot Nuggets team. In one quarter they took control of the series and put into question all of that confidence that Denver had built up over the past three months. Now they’re up 2-1 with game 4 on Wednesday.
- Is there a more schizophrenic team in the playoffs than Indiana? I can’t figure this team out. The Celtics might be the worst three seed I can remember in the past ten years, by the way.
- Assuming that both West favorites win in the bottom half of the bracket, that second round Seattle-San Antonio match is interesting. I don’t think San Antonio will roll through them quite as easily as everyone seems to think, and here’s why: they’re a pretty good matchup. One theory says “stick Bruce Bown on Ray Allen, series over” … but I don’t buy it. San Antonio can definitely stick Bowen on ray allen and mitigate his damage, but actually Seattle has two things going for them: Ginobili isn't tall enough to guard Rashard Lewis (who developed a very nicelittle post game this year) so that could be problematic, and Ridnour is actually a decent matchup vs Tony Parker. Parker beats people with heady play and with quicks, not with muscle, and those are two areas that Ridnour can match up with him at. Rid struggles against bigger PG's who can push him out of the way, postup, and shoot over him (like we thought Bibby would be able to do), and Parker doesn't do any of that. Nnot that I think any of this means Seattle has a chance, it just means the series goes 5 or 6 games instead of 4.
- I think we’ve probably seen the best two games of Jerome James’ career. And if Brad Miller were 100% healthy, he wouldn’t have looked as good. And nothing is funnier than an athlete saying “I’m finally coming into my own” following two good games after being a disappointment for six years. James looks like a very good center now, but he's a free agent this offseason and has got "the next Mark Blount" written all over him.
And, finally, here are our Power Rankings, as of May 1st. These rankings include only playoff teams and do not take matchups into consideration.
- Phoenix - Clearly playing the best basketball of anyone in the playoffs.
- San Antonio - Back on track after opening game stumble.
- Miami - Shaq will have a week to heel bruised thigh after sweep.
- Detroit - Won't see how good they really are until series vs Miami.
- Dallas - Nowitzki starting to put it togeter. They need Van Horn back to make noise.
- Seattle - Looking better than most people thought vs Sacramento. Nice road win in game 4.
- Houston - Surprisingly balanced. Yao needs to be great more often than good.
- Chicago - Could be in trouble if they lose game 4.
- Washington - Arenas & Jamison getting hot. Hughes could be key to series.
- Sacramento - Defense looks terrible. Can they win a playoff game on the road?
- Denver - Looking like they played over their heads in game 1. Must win game 4.
- Indiana - Reggie making one last run, and got a great matchup for it.
- Boston - Walker back for game 5. Winner of game 5 probably wins series.
- Memphis - Never had a chance vs Phoenix; Suns do everything better.
- Philadelphia - AI's best season not enough. Webber deal looks like a mistake.
- New Jersey - Would have thought Carter/Kidd/Jefferson would be good for one win.
Friday, April 22, 2005
Cost-Per-Win
Quick note on a Friday morning ...
Portland's payroll this year was about $79 million, which had them clocking in at roughly third in the NBA. Or, 28th in the NBA if you want to view it the other way around. More importantly, they won 27 games, ranking fifth-worst in the NBA.
It doesn't take a mathematician to realize that a team who spends in the top 5 payrolls but finishes in the bottom-five win percentage isn't managing their money very well. In fact, you can make an argument that, despite haveing the fifth worst record, they were the third least-successful team in the NBA. Here's how.
A $79 million payroll divied by 27 wins means they paid about $2.9 million per win. Awful. But how does the rest of the league compare? Here's the NBA rank of the worst eight teams in the league, based on wins-to-payroll ratio. Check out the dropoff after the"big three" losers and how close the next five are:
1. Knicks $3.2M
2. Hawks $2.924M
3. Blazers $2.917M
4. Hornets $1.973M
5. Lakers $1.895M
6. Bucks $1.894M
7. Orlando $1.890M
8. Raptors $1.857M
Wow. Not only is Portland in top-three worst in the NBA, they're head-and-shoulders above the next worst team. Clearly, the Knicks/Hawks/Blazers trifecta are the three worst-managed team in the NBA, looking strictly at wins-per-payroll. At least we can take solace in one thing: Isaiah Thomas isn't our GM.
In case you're wondering, the best teams in the NBA are the Suns ($737k per win), Spurs ($794k), Nuggets ($892k) and Pistons ($970k).
One final note ... of the top 9 payrolls in the nba, only four made theplayoffs. But conversely, none of the four lowest payrolls in the NBA made the playoffs either. So you need to spend wisely, but you can't be a total miser.
Enjoy the playoffs this weekend.
(And thanks to Andrew at All That Jazz for compiling some of this data).
Portland's payroll this year was about $79 million, which had them clocking in at roughly third in the NBA. Or, 28th in the NBA if you want to view it the other way around. More importantly, they won 27 games, ranking fifth-worst in the NBA.
It doesn't take a mathematician to realize that a team who spends in the top 5 payrolls but finishes in the bottom-five win percentage isn't managing their money very well. In fact, you can make an argument that, despite haveing the fifth worst record, they were the third least-successful team in the NBA. Here's how.
A $79 million payroll divied by 27 wins means they paid about $2.9 million per win. Awful. But how does the rest of the league compare? Here's the NBA rank of the worst eight teams in the league, based on wins-to-payroll ratio. Check out the dropoff after the"big three" losers and how close the next five are:
1. Knicks $3.2M
2. Hawks $2.924M
3. Blazers $2.917M
4. Hornets $1.973M
5. Lakers $1.895M
6. Bucks $1.894M
7. Orlando $1.890M
8. Raptors $1.857M
Wow. Not only is Portland in top-three worst in the NBA, they're head-and-shoulders above the next worst team. Clearly, the Knicks/Hawks/Blazers trifecta are the three worst-managed team in the NBA, looking strictly at wins-per-payroll. At least we can take solace in one thing: Isaiah Thomas isn't our GM.
In case you're wondering, the best teams in the NBA are the Suns ($737k per win), Spurs ($794k), Nuggets ($892k) and Pistons ($970k).
One final note ... of the top 9 payrolls in the nba, only four made theplayoffs. But conversely, none of the four lowest payrolls in the NBA made the playoffs either. So you need to spend wisely, but you can't be a total miser.
Enjoy the playoffs this weekend.
(And thanks to Andrew at All That Jazz for compiling some of this data).
Western Conference Playoffs Preview!
Let the games begin. This Saturday, the 2005 NBA Playoffs will kick off, and looking at this year’s playoffs we’ve got some very interesting matchups. For the second consecutive year, the playoffs will not include the Portland Trail Blazers. We'll have more on them once the playoffs get started. For now, clearly Phoenix and San Antonio – the league’s two class teams all season – have established themselves as the favorites in the West. Will it all come down to those two in the Conference Finals? Or can another team sneak in? Let’s take a closer look at the first round.
First, we’ll give a quick analysis of what we look at as the “big six” components that a team needs for playoff success: 1. Home court advantage, 2. Best star player, 3. Most playmakers, 4. Quality starting five, 5. Toughest defense, and 6. Playoff experience. Who has the advantage in each category? Next comes a quick breakdown. Without further ado:
#1 vs #8 – Phoenix vs Memphis
Home court: Phoenix
Best star: Phoenix (Nash over Gasol)
Most playmakers: Phoenix (Nash, Stoudamire, Marion over Gasol & Miller)
Starting 5: Phoenix
Toughest D: Memphis
Experience: (neither)
Probably the easiest series of the four to predict. Phoenix has been the best team in the league all season, has the best starting five in the NBA, and Memphis is sliding, big-time. The Grizz don’t have anything to stop – or even counteract – Amare Stoudamire in the middle or Steve Nash on the perimeter, as Stromile Swift has been a bit of a disappointment this season and Jason Williams doesn’t have the quicks on D to stop Nash. The one advantage Memphis may have is their dearth of perimeter guys … with Mike Miller, Bonzi Wells, and Jason Williams all able to J it up when they get hot, and Phoenix isn’t exactly a team of lock-down defenders. Don’t expect that to be enough to make the series close, though, as we haven’t even mentioned Quentin Richardson or Joe Johnson yet.
Prediction: Phoenix, 4-0.
#4 vs #5 – Dallas vs Houston
Home court: Dallas
Best star: Dallas (Dirk Nowitzki)
Most playmakers: Dallas (Nowitzki, Finley over McGrady, Ming)
Starting 5: Dallas
Toughest D: Houston
Experience: Dallas
Many prognosticators are expecting the Rockets to push Dallas to the brink … but I’ll be honest, I don’t see it. Tracy McGrady has looked fantastic in the second half of the season, but Dirk is showing the world that he can be THE man on the Mavs and is a top-3 candidate for the MVP this season. Yao Ming is developing a nice inside game and his feel for rebounding is getting better, but can he dominate Eric Dampier? We don’t think so. Jeff Van Gundy has the Rockets in the right direction, but they’re still a piece (or a Yao Ming mean streak) away. Between Dallas’ home court advantage, experience, and balanced offense, they should roll by Houston fairly easily.
Prediction: Dallas, 4-2.
#2 vs #7, San Antonio vs Denver
Home court: San Antonio
Best star: San Antonio (Duncan over Anthony)
Most playmakers: San Antonio (Duncan, Ginobili, Parker over Anthony, Martin, Miller)
Starting 5: Denver
Toughest D: San Antonio
Experience: San Antonio
Not as tough of a call as it would initially appear. Yes, Denver has been the league’s best team since the All-Star break, experiencing the biggest turnaround in one season that we’ve seen in a long time. Yes, Carmelo Anthony looks like an all-star again. But the Spurs have been on cruise control for the past month, Ginobili proved he’s a top-20 player in the NBA, and Duncan is finally healthy. As good as Marcus Camby has looked – arguably the most important reason along with Anthony’s willingness to give up ballhandling responsibilities for Denver’s turnaround – he can’t stop Tim Duncan and probably wont’ be 100% for the series. I expect San Antonio to avoid a seventh game with a big win in Denver in game 6.
Prediction: San Antonio, 4-2.
#3 vs #6, Seattle vs Sacramento
Home court: Seattle
Best star: Seattle (Allen over Stojakovic)
Most playmakers: Seattle (Allen, Lewis over Stojakovic, Bibby)
Starting 5: Sacramento
Toughest D: Sacramento
Experience: Sacramento
The only series that I see going to a potential seven games. Normally, you’d expect Sacramento to have the advantage in the paint with Brad Miller’s impressive post/passing combo game. However, Miller is hurt, and so is Stojakovic. Both will be playing, and starting, during the series, but neither will be 100% and I expect that to affect the Kings significantly. Sacramento’s got more balance and better depth, along with a ton of playoff experience, but ultimately I expect Seattle’s plethora of shooters (they’ve got more than anyone in the league … Allen, Ridnour, Radmanovic, Lewis, Murray) and home-court advantage to carry them through for the series win.
Prediction: Seattle, 4-3.
That’s it for now! We’ll be back after the first round with additional predictions for round two. What do you think? Feel free to critique these predictions via email here. The most interesting will get posted online.
First, we’ll give a quick analysis of what we look at as the “big six” components that a team needs for playoff success: 1. Home court advantage, 2. Best star player, 3. Most playmakers, 4. Quality starting five, 5. Toughest defense, and 6. Playoff experience. Who has the advantage in each category? Next comes a quick breakdown. Without further ado:
#1 vs #8 – Phoenix vs Memphis
Home court: Phoenix
Best star: Phoenix (Nash over Gasol)
Most playmakers: Phoenix (Nash, Stoudamire, Marion over Gasol & Miller)
Starting 5: Phoenix
Toughest D: Memphis
Experience: (neither)
Probably the easiest series of the four to predict. Phoenix has been the best team in the league all season, has the best starting five in the NBA, and Memphis is sliding, big-time. The Grizz don’t have anything to stop – or even counteract – Amare Stoudamire in the middle or Steve Nash on the perimeter, as Stromile Swift has been a bit of a disappointment this season and Jason Williams doesn’t have the quicks on D to stop Nash. The one advantage Memphis may have is their dearth of perimeter guys … with Mike Miller, Bonzi Wells, and Jason Williams all able to J it up when they get hot, and Phoenix isn’t exactly a team of lock-down defenders. Don’t expect that to be enough to make the series close, though, as we haven’t even mentioned Quentin Richardson or Joe Johnson yet.
Prediction: Phoenix, 4-0.
#4 vs #5 – Dallas vs Houston
Home court: Dallas
Best star: Dallas (Dirk Nowitzki)
Most playmakers: Dallas (Nowitzki, Finley over McGrady, Ming)
Starting 5: Dallas
Toughest D: Houston
Experience: Dallas
Many prognosticators are expecting the Rockets to push Dallas to the brink … but I’ll be honest, I don’t see it. Tracy McGrady has looked fantastic in the second half of the season, but Dirk is showing the world that he can be THE man on the Mavs and is a top-3 candidate for the MVP this season. Yao Ming is developing a nice inside game and his feel for rebounding is getting better, but can he dominate Eric Dampier? We don’t think so. Jeff Van Gundy has the Rockets in the right direction, but they’re still a piece (or a Yao Ming mean streak) away. Between Dallas’ home court advantage, experience, and balanced offense, they should roll by Houston fairly easily.
Prediction: Dallas, 4-2.
#2 vs #7, San Antonio vs Denver
Home court: San Antonio
Best star: San Antonio (Duncan over Anthony)
Most playmakers: San Antonio (Duncan, Ginobili, Parker over Anthony, Martin, Miller)
Starting 5: Denver
Toughest D: San Antonio
Experience: San Antonio
Not as tough of a call as it would initially appear. Yes, Denver has been the league’s best team since the All-Star break, experiencing the biggest turnaround in one season that we’ve seen in a long time. Yes, Carmelo Anthony looks like an all-star again. But the Spurs have been on cruise control for the past month, Ginobili proved he’s a top-20 player in the NBA, and Duncan is finally healthy. As good as Marcus Camby has looked – arguably the most important reason along with Anthony’s willingness to give up ballhandling responsibilities for Denver’s turnaround – he can’t stop Tim Duncan and probably wont’ be 100% for the series. I expect San Antonio to avoid a seventh game with a big win in Denver in game 6.
Prediction: San Antonio, 4-2.
#3 vs #6, Seattle vs Sacramento
Home court: Seattle
Best star: Seattle (Allen over Stojakovic)
Most playmakers: Seattle (Allen, Lewis over Stojakovic, Bibby)
Starting 5: Sacramento
Toughest D: Sacramento
Experience: Sacramento
The only series that I see going to a potential seven games. Normally, you’d expect Sacramento to have the advantage in the paint with Brad Miller’s impressive post/passing combo game. However, Miller is hurt, and so is Stojakovic. Both will be playing, and starting, during the series, but neither will be 100% and I expect that to affect the Kings significantly. Sacramento’s got more balance and better depth, along with a ton of playoff experience, but ultimately I expect Seattle’s plethora of shooters (they’ve got more than anyone in the league … Allen, Ridnour, Radmanovic, Lewis, Murray) and home-court advantage to carry them through for the series win.
Prediction: Seattle, 4-3.
That’s it for now! We’ll be back after the first round with additional predictions for round two. What do you think? Feel free to critique these predictions via email here. The most interesting will get posted online.
Monday, March 28, 2005
1. Blazer Draft Situation
Not a lot of news to report from Blazerland lately. The team's been god-awful, although Telfair and Outlaw have certainly given us reason to look forward to the future. Viktor Krhyapa has looked good at times as well, and we'll take a closer look at the team's returning players once the seasons comes to merciful end. What do we do in the meantime? When last we spoke, we gave a quick breakdown of the projected draft status of the league's bottom-six teams. Keep in mind that the #1 lottery spot is hardly a guarantee that team will win the #1 pick ... it's only happened three times since 1985. Sounds like an abhorration, huh? Not quite so when you look at the numbers. Since 1985, we've had 19 drafts. You have to take out 3 of them because expansion messed up the lottery projections, which makes three out of 16 times that the worst record won the lottery. That's 19% of the time. Considering that the #1 pick has a 25% of winning, it's not as far off as one would initially think.
Portland was, at the time, looking at the #6 lottery spot. What's happened since then? Let's take a closer look.
The Big Three
Aside from a bit of inter-shuffling, the big three losers of Atlanta, Charlotte and New Orleans hasn't changed. The Hawks have probably secured the top spot in the lottery, chiming in with 11 wins on the season. Charlotte's got 15 and New Orleans 16, although Charlotte has been playing decent basketball of late, even stealing a game from the Heat last week. Expect them to move up into that #3 lottery spot with New Orleans slipping to #2.
Prognosis:
#1 - Atlanta
#2 - New Orleans
#3 - Charlotte
The Next Tier
There's a set of three teams that has clearly separated itself from the rest of the league as the next big group of losers ... Portland, Utah, and Golden State. Last time we checked, Portland had 23 wins, and Utah and Golden State both had 20. Since then, Golden State has expectedly gotten hot, with the additions of Baron Davis and Nik Tskitishvili, while Portland and Utah have continued to flounder. The Warriors currently sit at 24-45, while Portland is at 24-44 (a half game better) and Utah stuck at 22-47. If the season ended today, Utah would be at #4, Golden State #5 and Portland at #6. Look for Golden State to eek out a few more wins than Portland over these last three weeks and move up to that #6 spot. As awful as Utah has been playing, and considering that Andre Kirilenko is out for the season, it looks as if they'll unfortunately be sticking to that #4 playoff spot.
Prognosis:
#4 - Utah
#5 - Portland
#6 - Golden State
2. Current Playoff Status
A quick peek at the Western and Eastern Conference Playoff situation ...
1. West
The top four spots appear to be locked up. Phoenix and San Antonio are duking it out for the top spot, but with Tim Duncan likely out until the playoffs, look for Phoenix to take ahold of the Conference's #1 seed. San Antonio will stick out the two-seed, and Seattle's division lead (10 games) will net it the #3. Dallas has a significant hold on the #4 spot.
After that, it gets a little sticky. Sacramento is fading (8-8 since the Webber trade) with the loss of Brad Miller and Houston lurks just a half game behind. Those two teams will fight it out for the 5/6 spots, which is a big difference ... who would you rather play, Dallas or Seattle? I expect Houston to overtake Sacramento, grab the #5, and set up a very intriguing Sacramento-Seattle first round matchup. As for the last two seeds, Memphis and Denver appear to have them locked up, with the only question being whom will end up where. Both are simply fighting for the chance to get abruptly sent home by Phoenix or San Antonio, so it probably doesn't matter ... but expect Memphis to stay at #7.
Prognosis:
1. Phoenix
2. San Antonio
3. Seattle
4. Dallas
5. Houston
6. Sacramento
7. Memphis
8. Denver
Most likely sweep: San Antonio over Memphis
Most likely upset: Sacramento over Seattle
Best matchup: Dallas vs Houston.
2. East
Again, the top seeds appear set. Miami's got a death-grip on the #1, with Detroit holding the same on #2. Boston's got the third-spot under control (don't expect Philly to get hot enough to steal it away). And from here is where it gets interesting.
What follows next are six teams within three and a half games for the last six playoff spots. Because of the divisional alignments, Boston will get the #3 seed despite ending up with the likely fourth or fifth best record. Which means that you'll have Washington, Chicago, Cleveland, Philly and Indiana all jockeying for position. If the season ended today, they'd finish in that order, and the only thing we see changing is Indiana jumping in front of Philly for the 7-seed. Here's the way we see things shaking down:
Prognosis:
1. Miami
2. Detroit
3. Boston
4. Washington
5. Chicago
6. Cleveland
7. Indiana
8. Philadelphia
Most likely sweep: Detroit over Indiana.Most likely upset: Cleveland over Boston.Best matchup: Washington vs Chicago.
Not a lot of news to report from Blazerland lately. The team's been god-awful, although Telfair and Outlaw have certainly given us reason to look forward to the future. Viktor Krhyapa has looked good at times as well, and we'll take a closer look at the team's returning players once the seasons comes to merciful end. What do we do in the meantime? When last we spoke, we gave a quick breakdown of the projected draft status of the league's bottom-six teams. Keep in mind that the #1 lottery spot is hardly a guarantee that team will win the #1 pick ... it's only happened three times since 1985. Sounds like an abhorration, huh? Not quite so when you look at the numbers. Since 1985, we've had 19 drafts. You have to take out 3 of them because expansion messed up the lottery projections, which makes three out of 16 times that the worst record won the lottery. That's 19% of the time. Considering that the #1 pick has a 25% of winning, it's not as far off as one would initially think.
Portland was, at the time, looking at the #6 lottery spot. What's happened since then? Let's take a closer look.
The Big Three
Aside from a bit of inter-shuffling, the big three losers of Atlanta, Charlotte and New Orleans hasn't changed. The Hawks have probably secured the top spot in the lottery, chiming in with 11 wins on the season. Charlotte's got 15 and New Orleans 16, although Charlotte has been playing decent basketball of late, even stealing a game from the Heat last week. Expect them to move up into that #3 lottery spot with New Orleans slipping to #2.
Prognosis:
#1 - Atlanta
#2 - New Orleans
#3 - Charlotte
The Next Tier
There's a set of three teams that has clearly separated itself from the rest of the league as the next big group of losers ... Portland, Utah, and Golden State. Last time we checked, Portland had 23 wins, and Utah and Golden State both had 20. Since then, Golden State has expectedly gotten hot, with the additions of Baron Davis and Nik Tskitishvili, while Portland and Utah have continued to flounder. The Warriors currently sit at 24-45, while Portland is at 24-44 (a half game better) and Utah stuck at 22-47. If the season ended today, Utah would be at #4, Golden State #5 and Portland at #6. Look for Golden State to eek out a few more wins than Portland over these last three weeks and move up to that #6 spot. As awful as Utah has been playing, and considering that Andre Kirilenko is out for the season, it looks as if they'll unfortunately be sticking to that #4 playoff spot.
Prognosis:
#4 - Utah
#5 - Portland
#6 - Golden State
2. Current Playoff Status
A quick peek at the Western and Eastern Conference Playoff situation ...
1. West
The top four spots appear to be locked up. Phoenix and San Antonio are duking it out for the top spot, but with Tim Duncan likely out until the playoffs, look for Phoenix to take ahold of the Conference's #1 seed. San Antonio will stick out the two-seed, and Seattle's division lead (10 games) will net it the #3. Dallas has a significant hold on the #4 spot.
After that, it gets a little sticky. Sacramento is fading (8-8 since the Webber trade) with the loss of Brad Miller and Houston lurks just a half game behind. Those two teams will fight it out for the 5/6 spots, which is a big difference ... who would you rather play, Dallas or Seattle? I expect Houston to overtake Sacramento, grab the #5, and set up a very intriguing Sacramento-Seattle first round matchup. As for the last two seeds, Memphis and Denver appear to have them locked up, with the only question being whom will end up where. Both are simply fighting for the chance to get abruptly sent home by Phoenix or San Antonio, so it probably doesn't matter ... but expect Memphis to stay at #7.
Prognosis:
1. Phoenix
2. San Antonio
3. Seattle
4. Dallas
5. Houston
6. Sacramento
7. Memphis
8. Denver
Most likely sweep: San Antonio over Memphis
Most likely upset: Sacramento over Seattle
Best matchup: Dallas vs Houston.
2. East
Again, the top seeds appear set. Miami's got a death-grip on the #1, with Detroit holding the same on #2. Boston's got the third-spot under control (don't expect Philly to get hot enough to steal it away). And from here is where it gets interesting.
What follows next are six teams within three and a half games for the last six playoff spots. Because of the divisional alignments, Boston will get the #3 seed despite ending up with the likely fourth or fifth best record. Which means that you'll have Washington, Chicago, Cleveland, Philly and Indiana all jockeying for position. If the season ended today, they'd finish in that order, and the only thing we see changing is Indiana jumping in front of Philly for the 7-seed. Here's the way we see things shaking down:
Prognosis:
1. Miami
2. Detroit
3. Boston
4. Washington
5. Chicago
6. Cleveland
7. Indiana
8. Philadelphia
Most likely sweep: Detroit over Indiana.Most likely upset: Cleveland over Boston.Best matchup: Washington vs Chicago.
Blazer Draft Projection *and* Playoff Picture Update
1. Blazer Draft Situation
Not a lot of news to report from Blazerland lately. The team's been god-awful, although Telfair and Outlaw have certainly given us reason to look forward to the future. Viktor Krhyapa has looked good at times as well, and we'll take a closer look at the team's returning players once the seasons comes to merciful end.
What do we do in the meantime? When last we spoke, we gave a quick breakdown of the projected draft status of the league's bottom-six teams. Keep in mind that the #1 lottery spot is hardly a guarantee that team will win the #1 pick ... it's only happened three times since 1985. Sounds like an abhorration, huh? Not quite so when you look at the numbers. Since 1985, we've had 19 drafts. You have to take out 3 of them because expansion messed up the lottery projections, which makes three out of 16 times that the worst record won the lottery. That's 19% of the time. Considering that the #1 pick has a 25% of winning, it's not as far off as one would initially think.
Portland was, at the time, looking at the #6 lottery spot. What's happened since then? Let's take a closer look.
The Big Three
Aside from a bit of inter-shuffling, the big three losers of Atlanta, Charlotte and New Orleans hasn't changed. The Hawks have probably secured the top spot in the lottery, chiming in with 11 wins on the season. Charlotte's got 15 and New Orleans 16, although Charlotte has been playing decent basketball of late, even stealing a game from the Heat last week. Expect them to move up into that #3 lottery spot with New Orleans slipping to #2.
Prognosis:
#1 - Atlanta
#2 - New Orleans
#3 - Charlotte
The Next Tier
There's a set of three teams that has clearly separated itself from the rest of the league as the next big group of losers ... Portland, Utah, and Golden State. Last time we checked, Portland had 23 wins, and Utah and Golden State both had 20. Since then, Golden State has expectedly gotten hot, with the additions of Baron Davis and Nik Tskitishvili, while Portland and Utah have continued to flounder. The Warriors currently sit at 24-45, while Portland is at 24-44 (a half game better) and Utah stuck at 22-47. If the season ended today, Utah would be at #4, Golden State #5 and Portland at #6. Look for Golden State to eek out a few more wins than Portland over these last three weeks and move up to that #6 spot. As awful as Utah has been playing, and considering that Andre Kirilenko is out for the season, it looks as if they'll unfortunately be sticking to that #4 playoff spot.
Prognosis:
#4 - Utah
#5 - Portland
#6 - Golden State
2. Current Playoff Status
A quick peek at the Western and Eastern Conference Playoff situation ...
1. West
The top four spots appear to be locked up. Phoenix and San Antonio are duking it out for the top spot, but with Tim Duncan likely out until the playoffs, look for Phoenix to take ahold of the Conference's #1 seed. San Antonio will stick out the two-seed, and Seattle's division lead (10 games) will net it the #3. Dallas has a significant hold on the #4 spot.
After that, it gets a little sticky. Sacramento is fading (8-8 since the Webber trade) with the loss of Brad Miller and Houston lurks just a half game behind. Those two teams will fight it out for the 5/6 spots, which is a big difference ... who would you rather play, Dallas or Seattle? I expect Houston to overtake Sacramento, grab the #5, and set up a very intriguing Sacramento-Seattle first round matchup. As for the last two seeds, Memphis and Denver appear to have them locked up, with the only question being whom will end up where. Both are simply fighting for the chance to get abruptly sent home by Phoenix or San Antonio, so it probably doesn't matter ... but expect Memphis to stay at #7.
Prognosis:
1. Phoenix
2. San Antonio
3. Seattle
4. Dallas
5. Houston
6. Sacramento
7. Memphis
8. Denver
Most likely sweep: San Antonio over Memphis
Most likely upset: Sacramento over Seattle
Best matchup: Dallas vs Houston.
2. East
Again, the top seeds appear set. Miami's got a death-grip on the #1, with Detroit holding the same on #2. Boston's got the third-spot under control (don't expect Philly to get hot enough to steal it away). And from here is where it gets interesting.
What follows next are six teams within three and a half games for the last six playoff spots. Because of the divisional alignments, Boston will get the #3 seed despite ending up with the likely fourth or fifth best record. Which means that you'll have Washington, Chicago, Cleveland, Philly and Indiana all jockeying for position. If the season ended today, they'd finish in that order, and the only thing we see changing is Indiana jumping in front of Philly for the 7-seed. Here's the way we see things shaking down:
Prognosis:
1. Miami
2. Detroit
3. Boston
4. Washington
5. Chicago
6. Cleveland
7. Indiana
8. Philadelphia
Most likely sweep: Detroit over Indiana.
Most likely upset: Cleveland over Boston.
Best matchup: Washington vs Chicago.
Not a lot of news to report from Blazerland lately. The team's been god-awful, although Telfair and Outlaw have certainly given us reason to look forward to the future. Viktor Krhyapa has looked good at times as well, and we'll take a closer look at the team's returning players once the seasons comes to merciful end.
What do we do in the meantime? When last we spoke, we gave a quick breakdown of the projected draft status of the league's bottom-six teams. Keep in mind that the #1 lottery spot is hardly a guarantee that team will win the #1 pick ... it's only happened three times since 1985. Sounds like an abhorration, huh? Not quite so when you look at the numbers. Since 1985, we've had 19 drafts. You have to take out 3 of them because expansion messed up the lottery projections, which makes three out of 16 times that the worst record won the lottery. That's 19% of the time. Considering that the #1 pick has a 25% of winning, it's not as far off as one would initially think.
Portland was, at the time, looking at the #6 lottery spot. What's happened since then? Let's take a closer look.
The Big Three
Aside from a bit of inter-shuffling, the big three losers of Atlanta, Charlotte and New Orleans hasn't changed. The Hawks have probably secured the top spot in the lottery, chiming in with 11 wins on the season. Charlotte's got 15 and New Orleans 16, although Charlotte has been playing decent basketball of late, even stealing a game from the Heat last week. Expect them to move up into that #3 lottery spot with New Orleans slipping to #2.
Prognosis:
#1 - Atlanta
#2 - New Orleans
#3 - Charlotte
The Next Tier
There's a set of three teams that has clearly separated itself from the rest of the league as the next big group of losers ... Portland, Utah, and Golden State. Last time we checked, Portland had 23 wins, and Utah and Golden State both had 20. Since then, Golden State has expectedly gotten hot, with the additions of Baron Davis and Nik Tskitishvili, while Portland and Utah have continued to flounder. The Warriors currently sit at 24-45, while Portland is at 24-44 (a half game better) and Utah stuck at 22-47. If the season ended today, Utah would be at #4, Golden State #5 and Portland at #6. Look for Golden State to eek out a few more wins than Portland over these last three weeks and move up to that #6 spot. As awful as Utah has been playing, and considering that Andre Kirilenko is out for the season, it looks as if they'll unfortunately be sticking to that #4 playoff spot.
Prognosis:
#4 - Utah
#5 - Portland
#6 - Golden State
2. Current Playoff Status
A quick peek at the Western and Eastern Conference Playoff situation ...
1. West
The top four spots appear to be locked up. Phoenix and San Antonio are duking it out for the top spot, but with Tim Duncan likely out until the playoffs, look for Phoenix to take ahold of the Conference's #1 seed. San Antonio will stick out the two-seed, and Seattle's division lead (10 games) will net it the #3. Dallas has a significant hold on the #4 spot.
After that, it gets a little sticky. Sacramento is fading (8-8 since the Webber trade) with the loss of Brad Miller and Houston lurks just a half game behind. Those two teams will fight it out for the 5/6 spots, which is a big difference ... who would you rather play, Dallas or Seattle? I expect Houston to overtake Sacramento, grab the #5, and set up a very intriguing Sacramento-Seattle first round matchup. As for the last two seeds, Memphis and Denver appear to have them locked up, with the only question being whom will end up where. Both are simply fighting for the chance to get abruptly sent home by Phoenix or San Antonio, so it probably doesn't matter ... but expect Memphis to stay at #7.
Prognosis:
1. Phoenix
2. San Antonio
3. Seattle
4. Dallas
5. Houston
6. Sacramento
7. Memphis
8. Denver
Most likely sweep: San Antonio over Memphis
Most likely upset: Sacramento over Seattle
Best matchup: Dallas vs Houston.
2. East
Again, the top seeds appear set. Miami's got a death-grip on the #1, with Detroit holding the same on #2. Boston's got the third-spot under control (don't expect Philly to get hot enough to steal it away). And from here is where it gets interesting.
What follows next are six teams within three and a half games for the last six playoff spots. Because of the divisional alignments, Boston will get the #3 seed despite ending up with the likely fourth or fifth best record. Which means that you'll have Washington, Chicago, Cleveland, Philly and Indiana all jockeying for position. If the season ended today, they'd finish in that order, and the only thing we see changing is Indiana jumping in front of Philly for the 7-seed. Here's the way we see things shaking down:
Prognosis:
1. Miami
2. Detroit
3. Boston
4. Washington
5. Chicago
6. Cleveland
7. Indiana
8. Philadelphia
Most likely sweep: Detroit over Indiana.
Most likely upset: Cleveland over Boston.
Best matchup: Washington vs Chicago.
Thursday, March 10, 2005
The Race For the #4 Pick
If the season were to end today, Portland would have the 6th pick in the 2005 NBA Draft. Will they stay there? Move up? Move down? Realistically, the top three are set ... nobody between the "big three" losers of New Orleans, Atlanta, and Charlotte is going to get hot enough to get out of the top three. Meaning that #4 is probably the highest that Blazer fans could expect to get come draft time. The two teams sitting at #4 and #5 respectively are Golden State and Utah. What would need to happen for the Blazers to move into that #4 slot? A number of things, although it's certainly feasible.
Does Portland have a legitimate shot at getting the fourth pick? Let's take a look at the numbers.
1. Portland
The Blazers have 22 wins, and have 8 winnable games left on their schedule:
-vs Orl
-@ LAC
-vs NY
-@ Uta
-vs GS
-@ NO
-@ GS
-vs Uta
Let's say that between those eight games, they win half. Might be a little generous consideing the way they're currently playing, but they'll likely get an unexpected win somewhere in there as well. Fair assumption. That would leave them with 26 wins at the end of the year.
2. Utah
Utah has 20 wins, with 12 winnable games on their schedule.
-@ NJ
-vs LAL
-vs Mil
-vs Den
-vs GS
-vs Por
-@ Min
-@ NO
-@ LAC
-vs Min
-@ Por
-@ GS
Say they win half, including an undexpected win or two. That would leave them with 26 wins as well.
3. Golden State
The Warriors might just be the toughest team to expect to move up. They've only got 19 wins, with 9 winnable games on their schedule:
-@ Atl
-vs NY
-@ Mil
-@ Uta
-@ Por
-@ Min
-vs Por
-vs LAL
-vs Uta
The Warriors have been hot lately, winning three of four prior to losing a tough one to Detroit last night. Given that they've played very well lately and just made a huge acquisition (Baron Davis), I think it's fair to say that they win 2/3 of their winnable games. That would be 25 wins.
What does this all mean for Blazer fans? It looks like Portland, Golden State, and Utah are all projected to end up with around 25-26 victories. Which means that clearly the four games that Potland has left vs Utah and Golden State will probably end up deciding the 4th pick. If they go something like 1-3, they've got a good chance to land the pick, and an 0-2 vs the Warriors sure would help.
So root for the Jazz and Warriors to win their other games, and mark the following dates on your calendar:
1. April 5th, Portland @ Utah
2. April 6th, Portland vs Golden State
3. April 15th, Portland @ Golden State
4. April 17th, Portland vs Utah
A lot could be deicided in those 12 days.
Does Portland have a legitimate shot at getting the fourth pick? Let's take a look at the numbers.
1. Portland
The Blazers have 22 wins, and have 8 winnable games left on their schedule:
-vs Orl
-@ LAC
-vs NY
-@ Uta
-vs GS
-@ NO
-@ GS
-vs Uta
Let's say that between those eight games, they win half. Might be a little generous consideing the way they're currently playing, but they'll likely get an unexpected win somewhere in there as well. Fair assumption. That would leave them with 26 wins at the end of the year.
2. Utah
Utah has 20 wins, with 12 winnable games on their schedule.
-@ NJ
-vs LAL
-vs Mil
-vs Den
-vs GS
-vs Por
-@ Min
-@ NO
-@ LAC
-vs Min
-@ Por
-@ GS
Say they win half, including an undexpected win or two. That would leave them with 26 wins as well.
3. Golden State
The Warriors might just be the toughest team to expect to move up. They've only got 19 wins, with 9 winnable games on their schedule:
-@ Atl
-vs NY
-@ Mil
-@ Uta
-@ Por
-@ Min
-vs Por
-vs LAL
-vs Uta
The Warriors have been hot lately, winning three of four prior to losing a tough one to Detroit last night. Given that they've played very well lately and just made a huge acquisition (Baron Davis), I think it's fair to say that they win 2/3 of their winnable games. That would be 25 wins.
What does this all mean for Blazer fans? It looks like Portland, Golden State, and Utah are all projected to end up with around 25-26 victories. Which means that clearly the four games that Potland has left vs Utah and Golden State will probably end up deciding the 4th pick. If they go something like 1-3, they've got a good chance to land the pick, and an 0-2 vs the Warriors sure would help.
So root for the Jazz and Warriors to win their other games, and mark the following dates on your calendar:
1. April 5th, Portland @ Utah
2. April 6th, Portland vs Golden State
3. April 15th, Portland @ Golden State
4. April 17th, Portland vs Utah
A lot could be deicided in those 12 days.
Wednesday, March 02, 2005
Blazers Fire Mo Cheeks!
Mo Mo the Clown's run has ended.
Following last night's beating at the hands of the Detroit Pistons, Cheeks was asked by the media if he'd start going with more playing time for some of Portland's younger players. Essentially, Cheeks said "no". He was going to go with the lineup every night that gave the team the best chance to win games, and that was a lineup that consisted primarily of veterans.
This was after - at the end of the game - he walked off the court arm-in-arm with Rasheed Wallace.
Uh, what?
You're kidding, right?
I think it's safe to say that these were the final nails in the coffin. So, today, John Nash wasted no time in promptly firing Mo Cheeks -- a move that was long overdue. Replacing Mo will as the interim coach for the rest of the year will be Kevin Pritchard, the team's VP of Personnel. Rather than give you my wordy interpretation of what happened, here's a quick rundown of the press conference's key highlights:
Following last night's beating at the hands of the Detroit Pistons, Cheeks was asked by the media if he'd start going with more playing time for some of Portland's younger players. Essentially, Cheeks said "no". He was going to go with the lineup every night that gave the team the best chance to win games, and that was a lineup that consisted primarily of veterans.
This was after - at the end of the game - he walked off the court arm-in-arm with Rasheed Wallace.
Uh, what?
You're kidding, right?
I think it's safe to say that these were the final nails in the coffin. So, today, John Nash wasted no time in promptly firing Mo Cheeks -- a move that was long overdue. Replacing Mo will as the interim coach for the rest of the year will be Kevin Pritchard, the team's VP of Personnel. Rather than give you my wordy interpretation of what happened, here's a quick rundown of the press conference's key highlights:
- After the All-Star break, the team thought they had a chance to get back into playoff race with a full roster (that's funny). When that didn't happen, they decided they wouldn't extend Cheeks' contract, then decided not to force him to be a lame duck coach for rest of year.
- Then, they selected kevin pritchard because he has head coaching experience in the past (but not in nba by the way) and played in the league. But, moreseo because, being the VP of Personnel, his input is vital because he'll be a big influence as a decisionmaker regarding personnel in the future.
- Cheeks was a great coach and did a great job, and Nash hanked Mo for his efforts through trying times.
- Club will be adding some exciting pieces next year to what they alread have, including Monya, more Khryapa, Seing-Ha, Joel, and for the rest of this year we want to find out how good those pieces are.
- This is a wins and losses driven business and we felt it was someoneelse's turn to take the helm.
- Question: did mo's comment last night about playing veterans affect the decision? answer: no. the goal is to win as many games aspossible and that is what maurice was trying to do. decision didn'thave anything to do with that.
- Question: will you start looking for a permanent coach now? ans: no, we will evaluate the roster for the rest of the year and start loooking for a permanent coach at the end of the season.
- All of the current assistant coaches will be kept.
- Question: is this an audition for kevin pritchard? A: no, not an audition. This is not kevin's career path and he's coaching interim only to evaluate. Mo knows the team better than anyone and Kevin wants to get that knowledge first hand. We want to find out what we have with our younger players, evaluating them on three principles: play hard, play smart, play together. some of our veterans may haveto make some sacrifices.
- Kevin doesnt know who will start on friday night.
Folks, this is GREAT news. The team is making a commitment to doing what many of us have clamored for all along: giving more playing time to the young guys so we can see what we've got with them.
I'm very excited. It doesn't make up for the team doing nothing at the trading deadline, but is a very positive move in the right direction.
Tuesday, March 01, 2005
E-mail Conversation with John Nash
I've been exchanging emails with what appears to be John Nash over the past couple of days and thought I'd let you take a peek.
Do you think Nash really responds to his own emails, or that he delegates it? I've heard from other bloggers that he spends some time every day answering emails from fans, and he's claimed to do that in interviews.
Anyhow, without furter ado ...
My first email to JN:
Nash's Response:
Do you think Nash really responds to his own emails, or that he delegates it? I've heard from other bloggers that he spends some time every day answering emails from fans, and he's claimed to do that in interviews.
Anyhow, without furter ado ...
My first email to JN:
I've never been so disappointed with the front office of a sports
team.
I grew up in Portland, went to school in Oregon, spent a few years in Portland post-college, and since then have lived in Seattle and now San Francisco. I'm a die-hard Blazer fan, live and die with the team,and have purchased the NBA Season Pass package every season since I left Portland, exclusively for the purpose of watching the Blazers.
This year has been a disaster. You know it as well as the fans do. I'll keep my personal thoughts on Maurice Cheeks' coaching skills tomyself for now, but the way that most of us got through the season to this point was to tell ourselves "management is showcasing veterans toupgrade their trade value... we'll see something special come thetrade deadline."
Nothing! Nothing at all. Heartbreaking. I understand that one team from the Eastern Confernence may have backed out of a potential deal involving a shooting guard ... was there no backup plan? How could you not have made a single trade? We had coveted assets,expiring contracts and an extremely imbalanced roster.
The message to the fans is clear: you care more about the bottom line than
you do wins and losses.
You've lost our faith. I think you owe us an explanation.
Sincerely,
A very sad and disappointed lifelong blazer fan.
Matt XXXXXXXX (name)
Editor,
Blazersblog.
http://blazers.blogspot.com/
Nash's Response:
I don't think the expiring contracts of Damon Stoudamire and Shareef Abdur Rahim were not as coveted as you suggest. What shooting guard was available?? As I explained to the media, the shooting guards that we liked were not traded by their respective teams. The injury and subsequent surgery to Shareef Abdur Rahim may have caused teams to be reluctant to trade for him.
We would hope to be able to trade Nick Van exel's contract for that type of player in the offseason or perhaps we will draft that position but Denver and Houston were also in the market for a shooting guard and could not land one.
In fact none were traded.
Sometimes it is prudent to pass rather than make a foolish trade. We are both disappointed that a good trade didn't happen.
My response back:
Thanks for your response. I appreciate it.
Do you think that the unsureness of the CBA situation affected yourability to deal expiring contracts? Or do most GM's have a very goodidea of what the new agreement will look like?
I do not know what kind of value the contracts of Damon and Shareef had in the open market. I think the reason that most fans are so disappointed is that it's been a long time since the team had such aglaring hole, and your predecessor was very aggressive and creativewhen it came to trading. The sentiment out there -- I say this bothfrom my own personal impression and from the e-mails I'm getting frommy readers -- is that although a Michael Redd or Ray Allen deal maynot have jumped up and been immediately evident, there *must* havebeen some way that the team could have brought in a shooting guard. The assets were there to trade. It's tough to believe that there wasn't something that could have been done -- be it even for a second-tier shooting guard.
It's very tough to watch the team let the expiring contracts walk away(the most likely scenario) and see the team get nothing in return other than save some dollars while the fans reap no benefits of that. Like I said, it's been a long time since the team was this bad, and for the front office to sit back and make no moves sends the wrong message.
Nash's Second Reply:
I do think the uncertainty related to the CBA may have played a part
Whenever people suggest we need this or that, I then try to get folks to be specific. What player do you want and is it realistic to get him? That exercise although tedious is what we do. We then after identifying a player, try to figure out how best we can match his salary and talent with our proposal to the other team. When those two hurdles are cleared we make an offer.
In the case of shooting guards that we liked, we couldn't clear the first two hurdles because of contracts on some but got creative in adding other contracts to the mix in order to acquire the player we wanted. To no avail ....we were unsuccessful.
The three players most coveted by the authors of the emails that I received were Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Michael Redd in no special order. The bottom line is that those three players were not traded because their teams wanted to keep them. Is that hard to accept? For some it seems so....Earlier in the season, Vince Carter was available and we made what I believed to be a better offer than what Toronto accepted from NJ.That was Toronto's prerogative. There were other teams pursuing Carter as well. Memphis offered two rotation players. Like ourselves they were not successful.
The reality is that after you eliminate Carter, Pierce, Red and Allen from the pool of available players, who did the fans want?? Certainly there are real quality shooting guards throughout the league but what does the team trading the shooting guard do to replace him???The other top shooting guards stayed home too because their teams couldn't replace them. Even a team like Seattle, with Ronald Murray in the wings, is keeping him as an insurance policy against injury to Ray Allen.
It may be hard for the fans to accept but reality is what it is.
***** *****
The rest of the conversation:
My third email to JN:
Thanks again for the response(s). I have to ask, is this really JohnNash, or do you delegate this to other people in your office?
I understand your wanting us to be specific. Are you asking me,specifically, what trades I would have proposed if I were GM? I had assumed that you would grow tired of fans suggesting un-researched trades (one of my personal pet peeves of local talk radio). The way I look at our roster, any quality shooting guard would have been an upgrade. Once you look past the Allen's, Redd's, and Vince's of the league, I believe there are plenty of shooting guards out there that the fans would have been excited to see join the Blazers.
Wally Szcerbiak, Mikael Pietrus, Michael Finley, Corey Maggette, Jamal Crawford, Doug Christie, Joe Johnso, Kyle Korver, Gordon Giricek, Mike Miller.
Any of these would be an upgrade for Portland. There are a few guys on that list who would appear to be very available, largely because their GM's are known for making many deals (Crawford, Finley) or because their teams may not
necessarily be interested in keeping them long-term (Maggette, Johnson, Christie, Pietrus). I don't think it's unrealistic to think that a few of these guys could have been had in the right deal.I'm certainly not trying to do your job, but part two of your questionis "is it feasible to acquire this player". Examples of deals that would be feasible, that haven't been as publicized mainstream:
1. Ruben Patterson and Travis Outlaw for Corey Maggette. LA gets out of Maggette's contract, gets a replacement swingman and avery nice young PF prospect. Portland gets their SG of the future. If the Clippers want more, add a second-round draft pick.
2. Jamal Crawford, Tim Thomas and Kurt Thomas for Damon Stoudamire and Theo
Ratliff. New York gets the legitimate center that Isaiah can't seem to ever find, rids itself of Tim Thomas. Portland gains a very talented shooting guard and more frontcourt help. The caveat here is that you've got to sign Pryzbilla to an extension.Again, I'm not trying to be a blowhard fan and do your job for you –these are just examples of shells of deals, things that work under the cap that can be explored, the type of creative thinking that fans are expecting. It doesn't matter what other teams did or didn't do, as our general manager, we fans expect that you'll find a way to help the team.
Nash's response:
This is John Nash and I will have difficulty answering you regularly. I don't like every guard on your list in some cases because of ability and in others because of age or contract remaining but it is safe to say that we pursued a number of them unsuccessfully. Korver and Pietrus are really small forwards while Christie is more of a defender rather than a shooter.
Nevertheless a few of them were attractive to us but equally attractive to their
current teams.
My fourth email to JN:
Yes, Korver and Pietrus are really small forwards. But look at our starting lineup. Stoudamire starts out of position at the SG, or VanExel does, considering how you look at it. Ruben Patterson starts out of position at the SG. Theo Ratliff starts out of position at PF. Shareef Abdur Rahim plays a bulk of his minutes out of position at SF.
I understand that you can't be carrying on consistent conversationswith fans and I appreciate your response. The point of my email was not to say "these are some players you should have tried to get andhere are trades you should have offered" -- that's your job and you certainly don't need my help.
The point more is that regardless of particular flaws, anyone on that list would still be a significant upgrade than anything that the Blazers have had for the past season and a half. And to see the front office do nothing to address a glaring hole is difficult for fans to take. The expiring contracts especially, because the team doesn't have to spend as much but teh fans reap no reward. Surely you understand this frustration.
Do you think that you'll be able to acquire a starting shooting guard for Nick Van Exel's contract? How does his contract work, does the fact that there is an option have the same value as a one-year deal in terms of what you can acquire in return? Or does he have to activate that option in order for it to have trade value?
JN's Fourth (and final) response:
Matt, You have me confused as you have Damon Stoudamire and Ruben Patterson.
Starting at SG. Trust me that Patterson has played SF as a starter, the same position that he has played throughout his career. Damon, Derek Anderson, Nick Van Exel and Richie Frahm have played shooting guard. I am afraid this will have to be my final email on the subject as much as I would like to answer all emails, I just can't.Finally, I would hope to draft, trade for or sign a free agent shooting guard in the off season. Perhaps Nick's contract will be involved.
***** *****
Very interesting. Obviously he got a little caught up on my email regarding who starts where -- I was referring to a lineup of Stoudamire, Patterson, Miles, Zbo, and Pryzbilla, where Ruben appears to be the starting SG. But nonetheless there are some interesting points to be gleamed from what he said, including:
- It definitely appears to be John Nash. Call me naive, but I believe it's him.
- It appears that the expiring contracts of Damon and Shareef were not very valuable. He doesn't mention Nick Van Exel's, though, which makes me think that of all three expiring deals, his had the most value. Becacuse of the option for next year perhaps? I'm guessing, and Nash partially confirms this, that teams were scared off because of Shareef's injury. Although he could be using that as an excuse.
- Nash comes off as a little bit defensive ... it's clear he's been getting his fair share of emails from fans such as myself, and it also appears he's had enough of it -- shown by his challenge of me to ask which shooting guards were available. Am I the only one who takes this as a little bit whiney? John, it's your job to figure that out, not ours.
- He justifies the team not acquiring a shooting guard by citing that Allen, Redd, and Pierce were not traded by their teams. He doesn't, however, address the subsequent list of 10 players provided that would also be a major upgrade.
- What does it matter what Houston and Denver did? Houston's got one of teh best swingmen in the game in Tmac, and what the other clubs did was irrelevant.
- He also directly acknowledges Ronald Murray in Seattle, citing that they kept him as an insurance policy to Ray Allen. They must have inquired about Murray, which is interesting. What do you think their offer was?
- This statement is very interesting: "...I would hope to draft, trade for or sign a free agent shooting guard in the off season. Perhaps Nick's contract will be involved." I guess it's clear what they view as their main bargaining chip this offseason.
Personally, I still feel that Nash completely dropped the ball in not getting something done for us. Nowhere in his emails did he provide adequate justification for not helping out the team. Will they really be able to find a starting, NBA caliber, 35-minute per night shooting guard in the draft or as trade for NVE's contract? I doubt it.
Monday, February 28, 2005
It's a Difficult Time to be a Blazer Fan
That pretty much says it all.
It's been awfully hard to watch or write anything about the Blazers that's positive over the past week. I think many of us were watching the on-court debacle and getting through the first 2/3 of this season by telling ourselves "this season appears to be lost -- but we've got some very attractive trade assets, in the form of quality players and expiring contracts. We've got an imbalanced roster that needs serious adjustments, but we have some very nice pieces -- both in place and as possible trade bait. Though the team isn't playing well now, with a few tweaks, they could be very good and I'm excited to see what the trade deadline has in store."
And? Nothing.
Nothing! How is this possible? I'm truly disappointed at the Blazers front office. Not a single deal was made.
I don't buy the argument that we'll be able to pull off a major sign-and-trade once the season is over. None of our expiring contracts are attractive enough players to warrant that. We still don't have a shooting guard, we still don't have a backup point guard for next season, we still haven't signed Pryzbilla to an extension, and we've got only the mid-level exception to get all of this done.
Rumors had Portland making a very nice offer to Milwaukee for Michael Redd. The Bucs were confident that they could re-sign him, so they backed out. Was there no backup plan? How can you have all of your eggs in one basket in this type of situation? Give us something. Anything. Even if it's minor. At least show us that you care. This basketball team is in dire, dire need of a shooting guard who can knock down a jumpt shot. We've needed this for two and a half years. What more needs to happen before the upper management makes something happen? We've been waiting to make final judgements on John Nash's job as General Manager for a year and a half. Even when the Rasheed trade was made, the common sentiment was "it will be very interesting to see what Shareef brings us." Apparently, that's going to be nothing.
What are Blazer fans left to look forward to now? The existing team -- at home, mind you -- just snuck out a one-point victory over one of the worst teams in teh league. They're 0-2 against the second-worst team in the league. Zach Randolph, Darius Miles, and Theo Ratliff -- the three big contract extensions from last season -- have all taken their respective lumps this season ... Zach's been injury-prone and is starting to gain a selfish rap, be it fair or not. Ratliff has been flat-out ineffective all season long and has lost his starting job to Joel Pryzbilla. And Darius Miles looks uninterested on the court and is blatantly mailing it in for the season. Four turnovers against Atlanta in 21 minutes. And we've got $35 million in expiring contracts that will save Paul Allen some salary money, but because of salary cap rules won't allow the team to replace them. The team's message is clear: they care more about the bottom line than they do wins and loses.
My man Bill Simmons from ESPN.com's Page 2 said it best:
More on this later.
It's been awfully hard to watch or write anything about the Blazers that's positive over the past week. I think many of us were watching the on-court debacle and getting through the first 2/3 of this season by telling ourselves "this season appears to be lost -- but we've got some very attractive trade assets, in the form of quality players and expiring contracts. We've got an imbalanced roster that needs serious adjustments, but we have some very nice pieces -- both in place and as possible trade bait. Though the team isn't playing well now, with a few tweaks, they could be very good and I'm excited to see what the trade deadline has in store."
And? Nothing.
Nothing! How is this possible? I'm truly disappointed at the Blazers front office. Not a single deal was made.
I don't buy the argument that we'll be able to pull off a major sign-and-trade once the season is over. None of our expiring contracts are attractive enough players to warrant that. We still don't have a shooting guard, we still don't have a backup point guard for next season, we still haven't signed Pryzbilla to an extension, and we've got only the mid-level exception to get all of this done.
Rumors had Portland making a very nice offer to Milwaukee for Michael Redd. The Bucs were confident that they could re-sign him, so they backed out. Was there no backup plan? How can you have all of your eggs in one basket in this type of situation? Give us something. Anything. Even if it's minor. At least show us that you care. This basketball team is in dire, dire need of a shooting guard who can knock down a jumpt shot. We've needed this for two and a half years. What more needs to happen before the upper management makes something happen? We've been waiting to make final judgements on John Nash's job as General Manager for a year and a half. Even when the Rasheed trade was made, the common sentiment was "it will be very interesting to see what Shareef brings us." Apparently, that's going to be nothing.
What are Blazer fans left to look forward to now? The existing team -- at home, mind you -- just snuck out a one-point victory over one of the worst teams in teh league. They're 0-2 against the second-worst team in the league. Zach Randolph, Darius Miles, and Theo Ratliff -- the three big contract extensions from last season -- have all taken their respective lumps this season ... Zach's been injury-prone and is starting to gain a selfish rap, be it fair or not. Ratliff has been flat-out ineffective all season long and has lost his starting job to Joel Pryzbilla. And Darius Miles looks uninterested on the court and is blatantly mailing it in for the season. Four turnovers against Atlanta in 21 minutes. And we've got $35 million in expiring contracts that will save Paul Allen some salary money, but because of salary cap rules won't allow the team to replace them. The team's message is clear: they care more about the bottom line than they do wins and loses.
My man Bill Simmons from ESPN.com's Page 2 said it best:
Here's what they have now: A lottery team with Ratliff signed for $45 million through 2008; Miles signed for six years, $48 million; Randolph signed for an $86 million extension that doesn't kick in until next season; $35 million in contracts (Stoudamire, Van Exel and Shareef) getting wiped off after this summer; and no cap space to sign a marquee guy. They should have to pay reparations to Blazers fans for everything that's happened over the past five years.
So when does my check arrive in the mail?
***** *****
The team is in utter shambles, both on the court and off. And as if it weren't enough that the front-office did nothing to address the situation, the veterans are still getting all of the playing time. I can't figure this out for the life of me.
However ... forget the Blazers for a moment. Let's talk about real basketball teams: teams that are proactive, teams that give their young players opportunities to get playing time, and more importantly, teams who's front offices upgrade their team's rosters by making trades. Here is a look at a few of the major deals that went down.
1. Chris Webber, Matt Barnes and Michael Bradley to the Sixers for Corliss Williamson, Brian Skinner and Kenny Thomas
Yikes. This deal shocked everyone. I'm sure you've read plenty about it by now, so I'll say this ... if Sacramento wanted to get rid of Chris Webber because they thought he slowed down the offense, he didn't get along with Stojakovic, he held back Mike Bibby's open-court abilities, he breaks down easily ... fine. I can live with that. But that's the best that you can do? If I'm a Kings fan, I'm angry right now. Sacramento got some nice bench players in return, but they didn't get any cap relief, took back an awful contract (Thomas), and couldn't even manage to pry one of the Sixers' attractive young assets like Kyle Korver or Samuel Dalembert from them. Just a bizarre trade. Winner: Sixers
2. Warriors acquire Baron Davis from New Orleans for Dale Davis and Speedy Claxton.
Obvious salary dump by New Orleans, and a very nice pickup for Golden State. Along with Jason Richardson, Davis now joins the most explosive backcourt in the NBA. Add those two to Troy Murphy, Mike Dunleavy, Nikolai Tskitishvili (whom they acquired in another nice deal, for Eduardo Najera) and a top-5 pick in the upcoming draft ... that's a nice little team they're starting to put together. Granted, the chance that Davis spends the last five years of the contract on and off the injured list because of his bad knees or back is 50-50, but Golden State had to make this deal. New Orleans on the other hand will have a boatload of cap room this offseason ... but will they be able to spend it? Winner: Golden State
3. Celtics trade Gary Payton, Michael Stewart, Tom Gugliotta and a first-round pick to Atlanta for Antoine Walker
Nice move for the Celtics. I'll leave the commentary on this deal once again to my man Bill Simmons over at espn.com:
Here's my question: Why not? What did they have to lose? This was a .500 team that seemed to be getting worse by the week. After Philly fleeced Sacramento for Webber, there was about a 100-percent chance that the Sixers were taking the Atlantic. So why not roll the dice? GP had been subpar since the holidays -- his FG% was down, he seemed disinterested at times, and he couldn't have stopped Red Auerbach off the dribble. Antoine will be taking the minutes of Mark Blount, Jiri Welsch and Tom Gugliotta -- in other words, that's an ENORMOUS upgrade for 30 minutes a game.
My personal opinion? This trade might be good in the short-term for the Celitcs, but it also exposes Danny Ainge for what he is: A lost, in-over-his-head GM who doesn't appear to have a clear plan for building his team. Not only has he traded away and then reacquired 'Toine, he's managed to saddle himself with LaFrenz's awful contract in the meantime. Nice work. However, there's a catch ... rumor has it that after Atlanta buys him out, GP might be right back with the Celtics. How is that allowed? Winner: Boston.
4. Isaiah Thomas -- the worst GM in Sports
Relax, Blazer fans -- as long as Isaiah Thomas is around, we aren't the worst-off sports fans in the NBA. There is a team out there with a worse General Manager. Isaiah must be on the take. That's the only explanation. He trades a good backup center for an undersized power forward, adding to his team which already had two other undersized power forwards. Oh, he also relieved the Spurs of an awful contract and helped them bolster their front line for the playoff stretch. Maybe Isaiah just hates Phoenix for saddling him with Stephon Marbury and this was his revenge. In the other bungling, panicked trade that Thomas made, he sent Moochie Norris and Vin Baker to the Rockets for Mo Taylor. Taylor is -- you guessed it -- another undersized power forward. Nice work, Isaiah. And how about the Rockets? They did a nice job of picking up two decent role-player PG's to address their biggest need. Winner: Anyone who trades with the Knicks.
5. Dallas acquiring Keith Van Horn from Milwaukee for Alan Henderson, Calvin Booth, and cash.
Nice work, Mark Cuban. Yes, they're vastly overpaying ($16 million) for a role player, and yes he's under contract for next season. But Keith Van Horn will add a very nice compliment of shooting and rebounding to the Mavericks, and his game fits their style of play very well. Say what you will about Cuban, he clearly doesn't mind overpaying when a player produces. As for Milwaukee, they clear a bit more money to try and re-sign Michael Redd this offseason. Winner: Dallas.
What do you think? E-mail me your thoughts on any of the deals that went down this trade deadline and we'll put some of the more interesting responses up on the site.
Thursday, February 24, 2005
Tuesday, February 22, 2005
Whitsitt vs Nash
I've always been a believer in what you do on the court speaks loudest about your value to a team. Hence, I've always been a fan of Bob Whitsitt's work as the Blazers' GM. Say what you will about the character he brought in, the team was an elite contender while Whitsitt was here. I believe his style of GM'ing ... that you put pieces together like a fantasy team ... probably isn't the idea way to build a team, and can only last so long: but it will create for a contender.
Trading emails regarding the floundering of John Nash as Portland's GM with another Blazer aficianado known only as "Lochi", he had this to say:
Trading emails regarding the floundering of John Nash as Portland's GM with another Blazer aficianado known only as "Lochi", he had this to say:
At least Bob was willing to shoot big, and frankly his decision making on players was not that horrible, character issues aside. He traded a bunch of nothing for Damon, a bunch of nothing for Pippen, took JR Rider for basically nothing and then ended up dealing him for Steve Smith (hey, a 2 that can knock down an open shot, imagine that), decided that Brian Grant wasn't worth a max contract even though all the fans lovedhim (myself guilty as charged), how are any of these things bad moves? Yes, Kemp blew up in his face and when your team is in character shambles it's probably not a good idea to give a long term deal to Reuben Patterson. Yes he was lenient on some players that he probably shouldn't have been, but the worst year when he was here they were a playoff team and close to 50 wins, the best they've been since he's been gone is just under that.
I think Lochi is correct on all counts. This doesn't even take into consideration that Whitsitt brought in Rasheed Wallace who -- again, say what you will about his character -- while playing under Mike Dunleavy was one of the top 3 forwards in the Western Conference and an NBA All-Star. All of that at the cost of Rod Strickland.
What do you think? E-mail me your thoughts, either pro or con, regarding Nash or Whitsitt's performance and we'll break it down in closer detail later in the week after this year's trade deadline.
Will Portland Make a Trade?
Portland is playing awful basketball and with the team having no participants in any of the all-star festivities over the weekend, that leaves us with only trade rumors to talk about.
First off, there are lots of rumors flying around that Nash is content to "stand pat" and not make any moves. I'll say this one time: I don't understand how anyone could possibly look at Portland's roster and think it doesn't need any changes. It just doesn't make sense. We've got an extra power forward, three quality expiring contracts, and no discernable shooting guard on our team to speak of. Our left-handed backcourt hoists up 40 shots a game and is killing the offense. This team doesn't need to make any moves? I received this email from a reader of mine who's a big Blazer (and huskies, unfortunately) fan:
Couldn't have said it better myself. I'm willing to give Nash the benefit of the doubt, assume he's posturing, and wait until the trade deadline has passed to make any final judgements. However, if Portland has the same roster as of 3:00pm EST on Thursday as it does now, we've got serious problems. For one thing I'll need to figure out how to pad my apartment's walls, and for another thing, that would solidify another season of crappy hoops from our friends at the Rose Garden.
Anyhow, back to the trade speculation. Speaking of trade speculation, how about David Aldridge rising from the dead to drop that "Odom for Stojakovic" rumor on us during the all-star game? That was fun. As for Portland, I try very hard not to give blowhards with unrealistic trade ideas too much mic-time, but here are a few of the trades being floated around.
First off, there are lots of rumors flying around that Nash is content to "stand pat" and not make any moves. I'll say this one time: I don't understand how anyone could possibly look at Portland's roster and think it doesn't need any changes. It just doesn't make sense. We've got an extra power forward, three quality expiring contracts, and no discernable shooting guard on our team to speak of. Our left-handed backcourt hoists up 40 shots a game and is killing the offense. This team doesn't need to make any moves? I received this email from a reader of mine who's a big Blazer (and huskies, unfortunately) fan:
I'm just a bit concerned by the whole "the status of the collectivebargaining agreement makes us think that it's safer to just let thesecontracts expire rather than taking on any players". That to me is agiant middle finger to your fans. It's basically saying "We care aboutthe bottom line and not the W column."
Couldn't have said it better myself. I'm willing to give Nash the benefit of the doubt, assume he's posturing, and wait until the trade deadline has passed to make any final judgements. However, if Portland has the same roster as of 3:00pm EST on Thursday as it does now, we've got serious problems. For one thing I'll need to figure out how to pad my apartment's walls, and for another thing, that would solidify another season of crappy hoops from our friends at the Rose Garden.
Anyhow, back to the trade speculation. Speaking of trade speculation, how about David Aldridge rising from the dead to drop that "Odom for Stojakovic" rumor on us during the all-star game? That was fun. As for Portland, I try very hard not to give blowhards with unrealistic trade ideas too much mic-time, but here are a few of the trades being floated around.
- Shareef Abdur-Rahim and a draft pick to Milwaukee for Michael Redd and Keith Van Horn. First off, I don't believe that Milwaukee is going to trade Redd. Yes, he's probably a second-option for any team. Yes, he's made public notions about playing in Cleveland. However, Miwaukee can offer Redd the largest -- by far -- contract of any suitor, and they know this. It's hard to see Redd leaving $20 million on the table to play for another team. That said, there have been rumblings about a Shareef-plus-a-draft pick for Redd and Van Horn deal. Two words: no way. Milwaukee would want a lot more than an expiring contract for Redd. I don't think they send Redd to Portland in any deal not involving Zach Randolph. Likelihood: zero.
- Shareef Abdur-Rahim to Minnesota for Wally Sczerbiak and Ervin Johnson. This deal makes sens for both teams -- Rumors are that Nash doesn't want to take on the last few years of Szcerbiak's deal. Understandable, but it's tough to see Portland finding a better SG for the price of only Abdur-Rahim. Portland gets their starting 2-guard for the next few years, Minnesota adds SAR to their front-line of Garneet, Olowokandi, and Griffin and looks good to grab one of the last playoff spots. Likelihood: mild.
- Damon Stoudamire to Miami for Eddie Jones. What's in it for Portland? They aren't playing Damon 42 minutes per game to trade him for another expiring contract. Even if it would temporarily upgrade the team at SG, Jones is a free agent at season's end and this deal doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Likelihood: slight.
Do I hope Nash will make a trade or two? Yes, I truly do believe that he's posturing and there are several items in the works. Do I think he will? I'm not sure. He'd better. Or we might end up having to re-name the blog "SERENITY NOW".
Thursday, February 17, 2005
NBA Trading Deadline: One Week Away
That's what I keep telling myself. It's getting really, really hard to watch Blazer Basketball these days. The mantra that's repeated around these parts is: "Mo is just playing these vets because management wants him to increase their trade value."
Right?
Right?
Ugh. Let's hope so. On Monday, we talked about the possible 2-guards that have been rumored to be available. I haven't seen, heard, or read any updates on that front. One thing I would like to caution everyone on: please don't listen to Chad Ford's ridiculous trade idea on ESPN that involves Portland sending Shareef, Ruben, and Miles for Latreel Sprewell and Szerbiak. Yes, it addresses our 2-guard need, but what Chad fails to note is that it creates a giant hole at the "3". Really can't see that happening, and I also don't think there is a chance in hell that Portland goes out and gets Sprewell. Can you imagine the public backlash?
Back to Portland's current situation. Got this email this morning from a buddy of mine who's a big Blazer (and Seahawk) fan, subject line was "Serenity now":
I couldn't have said it better myself. Nice to see 65-year old Reggie Miller torch Portland for 36 points last night. Oh, and did I mention that earlier in the week Portland eeked by with another three-point desperation win over an expansion team on Monday night?
The team is off for the next six days, at which point they'll hopefully return to action with a spanking-new shooting guard and one less point guard. And they'll need it, because the schedule in March gets brutal. I'll be posting any legitimate trade rumors and Blazers news as soon as it comes across, so feel free to check back often. I'll close today's column with the following note about Portland's last two games and let you figure out for yourself who should be shooting more and who should be shooting less.
1. Van Exel/Stoudamire: 23-of-58 (39%)
2. Pryzbilla/Patterson/Miles: 44-of-77 (57%)
SERENITY NOW.
Right?
Right?
Ugh. Let's hope so. On Monday, we talked about the possible 2-guards that have been rumored to be available. I haven't seen, heard, or read any updates on that front. One thing I would like to caution everyone on: please don't listen to Chad Ford's ridiculous trade idea on ESPN that involves Portland sending Shareef, Ruben, and Miles for Latreel Sprewell and Szerbiak. Yes, it addresses our 2-guard need, but what Chad fails to note is that it creates a giant hole at the "3". Really can't see that happening, and I also don't think there is a chance in hell that Portland goes out and gets Sprewell. Can you imagine the public backlash?
Back to Portland's current situation. Got this email this morning from a buddy of mine who's a big Blazer (and Seahawk) fan, subject line was "Serenity now":
"So they trail by 9 when Telfair comes in late in the third, trail by 1 after he hits a 3 (71-70) and as soon as they get within 1 Van Exel comes back in the game, and the Blazers don’t score for another 4 minutes. Just fantastic. Theo had another sweet line, 24 minutes, 0 points, 2 boards and a block. However, what can you say about Pryzbilla, what the hell has happened to that guy? He’s racking up 18 and 17’s like it’s high school. He even had 6 blocks to go with his 18 and 17 last night. Yowza. Anyway, I get more and more frustrated watching Telfair turn games around only to be sent back to the bench and watch the team go to hell. It’s like Mo is trying to lose games on purpose."
I couldn't have said it better myself. Nice to see 65-year old Reggie Miller torch Portland for 36 points last night. Oh, and did I mention that earlier in the week Portland eeked by with another three-point desperation win over an expansion team on Monday night?
The team is off for the next six days, at which point they'll hopefully return to action with a spanking-new shooting guard and one less point guard. And they'll need it, because the schedule in March gets brutal. I'll be posting any legitimate trade rumors and Blazers news as soon as it comes across, so feel free to check back often. I'll close today's column with the following note about Portland's last two games and let you figure out for yourself who should be shooting more and who should be shooting less.
1. Van Exel/Stoudamire: 23-of-58 (39%)
2. Pryzbilla/Patterson/Miles: 44-of-77 (57%)
SERENITY NOW.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
