Spreadpredictor: Game 2

Your fearless Moderator correctly predicted Portland’s big win last night, while the other guy — the one who gives you his name, which he is no doubt regretting due to the fact that writing this blog creates a papparazi frenzy outside your home — didn’t do so well.  It’s 1-0 Moderator, and folks get used to that.  

Tonight’s game pits Portland against the hated Lakers; a next-day road game after home game against a team who had the previous night off, the classic gambling trap.  Vegas realizes this, and the line is Portland +10.  The caveat here is that there’s a slight chance LA pulls off a Jason Kidd trade today and ships out 4 players; if that’s the case then all bets are off.

Tonight’s game: Portland @ LAL
Spread: Portland +10

Moderator (1-0): “Tough call, but I think the Lakers will cover this — assuming they’ve got their full roster.  They’re just a better team and I don’t like Portland playing this game on the road after a real tough win last night.”

Lochi (0-1): “Blazers.  Really liked the way they played last night, Lakers have lost 5 in a row and one of their better players hurt his shoulder auditioning for a role in Blades of Glory.“

Trade Winds A'Blowin

Screw the intro paragraph, let’s get right to it.

1. Pau Gasol  

If you’re the Bulls, would you give two of the Deng/Gordon/Heinrich/Nocioni foursome to get Gasol?

I sure as hell do.  Supposedly the hang-up is that Chicago will only give one of them away.  Personally, I don’t see why The Grizz aren’t demanding Ty Thomas.  I’d want Thomas and Deng and the rest could be cap filler.  Add Gasol’s low-post scoring to Ben Wallace’s defense, Nocioni’s scoring, and Heinrich and Gordon, and you’ve got the best team in the East.  I do predict that Gasol gets dealt today or tomorrow, though it may not end up being Chicago.

2. Jason Kidd

Don’t see him getting dealt.  The Lakers offering what essentially amounts to Jordan Farmar and a bunch of crap doesn’t get New Jersey anywhere.  Kidd would be a perfect addition to the Cavs, but I played around with the trade machine and couldn’t find anything that made sense for New Jersey.  


3. Cory Maggette

Another guy I don’t see getting moved.  He’s got too much talent and (ironically) has too much of an economical deal to make a trade worth it.  I’ve heard some rumors about Jazz throwing a couple of young players and some cap filler LA’s way, but that doesn’t make enough sense either.  I’d love to see him in Portland by the way; a shooting small forward who plays defense and is signed reasonably?  Where do I sign up for that.


4. Jamaal Magloire

Yes, I believe Portland will move him.  Despite what we’ve heard coming out of the front office (gasp! The Blazer front office not being forthcoming?  Shocking), I have it on very good authority that Patterson and Pritchard fully intend on trading Maglorie but are holding out for either a first-round pick, or a young asset that comes along with an expiring deal.  

Tonight's Ramblings Presented by IPA

It's hard to watch a game like that and not be excited. They just beat the Utah Jazz a few minutes ago, and despite The Other Guy's opinion, they're a good team. True, they may be the modern day equivalent of the Red Army Team, but they're good none the less. Let's run through some high points from tonight's game shall we? And yes, I've powered through about 6 beers.

Brandon Roy, how is it possible that he keeps getting better? 27 points, 20 in the second half (game was tied at halftime), and I can't quite believe this, but he's making The Leap right now. I figured it would be next year before he started pouring in 25 a night on average and flat out taking over in the second half. Well, it's here, enjoy.

Z-bo, please, someone, I don't care if it's the ghost form of Obi Wan Kenobi, but please convince Zach that if he just takes under 20 shots a night, crashes the boards, and passes out of double teams that this team can be a serious threat for a long time with him, Brandon, Sergio, and Aldridge. How's that for a drunken run on sentence? If it makes no sense, slam a couple beers and it will, trust me. Let's just say that 22 points on 18 shots to go along with 12 boards makes me happy.

Ime Udoka. It takes a big man to admit when he was wrong, I am not a big man. I still think he's best suited for a 15-20 minute a night energy guy, but damn was he good tonight. 15 points on 6 of 9 shooting, but more importantly held AK-47 to 5 points, 6 boards, 0 assists, 0 steals, and 1 block. Outstanding work Ime.

Nate McMillan. Simply put, The Marcus (who apparently the radio team is calling "LA", now THAT's funny), 27 minutes. The Captain 19 minutes for a grand total of 46 minutes at the center position. I have no idea if that shitpig Magloire was traded in between the time I left work, hit happy hour, and caught the second half of the game, but not seeing him on the floor made me happy.

Thus ends the slightly buzzed rant for tonight. I will not discuss the free throw shooting, Travis Outlaw, or the officiating in this game, they won, they beat a good team. I'm happy. Time for bed, more coherent thoughts tomorrow I assure you.

If The Playoffs Started Today

This would be what the bracket looked like.

WEST:

(1) Dallas vs (8) Minnesota
(4) San Antonio vs (5) Houston

(2) Phoenix vs (7) Denver
(3) Utah vs (6) Lakers

EAST:

(1) Detroit vs (8) Miami
(4) Toronto vs (5) Indiana

(2) Cleveland vs (7) Orlando
(3) Washington vs (6) Chicago


Notes:
-The three division leaders in the West hold 8.5, 9, and 10 game leads.  Oy.
-Who do you think would be favored in that Utah-Lakers series?
-Would you rather be the 3-seed and face the Lakers, or the 4-seed and face the Rockets?  Tough call.
-Better question, would you rather be the 6-seed and face Utah, or the 5-seed and face the Spurs?
-This shows you how important that Lakers/Nuggets  battle for the 6-seed is.  Phoenix instead of Utah?  I’d be climbing all over myself to get that extra spot.
-As for the East, I see it as Detroit and then one big clusterf**k.  You could take any of those 2-8 seeds and jumble them all up (and with a 4.5 game difference between then, it just may happen).  I’d bet that teams will be going all-out to avoid the 8 and 4 seeds, though, to postpone a potential Detroit series.

A New Little Game: Spreadpredictor

As you may or may not know, we here at Blazersblog enjoy our fair share of gambling.  One of us has even been known to refer to a craps table as “The ATM”.  And with our beloved Fire-Starters not looking likely to make the playoffs, or make a solid run at them, we’re starting something new here for this first game of the preseason: your two authors will be predicting Blazer games against the spread, monitoring the progress, and tracking each one’s performance.  You’ll get a sentence or two of explanation as well.  NOTE: these predictions are made independently, hence there may some comment overlap.

Tonight’s game: Utah @ Portland
Spread: Portland –1

Moderator (0-0): “Tough call, but I like Portland for a couple of reasons.   They’re playing at home and Zbo will be on a mission to prove he deserved the All-Star nod over Mehmet Okur.”
Lochi (0-0): Utah.  “Portland giving points to a team that’s 35-17 is just a blatant error by the oddsmakers.  I would have to forgo my long standing rule of never wagering against your own team if I was in the state of Nevada today. “

28 Days

Only 28 games remain in the season for the Blazers, a surprising turnaround year, certainly progress, but we'll save the overall review for the end of the season. Right now let's address some of the key issues in the last 28 games of the year.

22-32, 4th in the division, technically 5 games in the loss column out of the 8th playoff spot. Obviously they aren't making the playoffs, but they should focus on finishing ahead of the Sonics. Baby steps. They have a home heavy March schedule, I don't think it's unreasonable to think they can go 14-14 to close this thing out, 36-46, far exceeding expectations and trendy pick for the playoffs next year.

The trade deadline. In order, most likely to get dealt: Johnny Dixon, The All Star, Travis Outlaw. I could see Outlaw or Webster packaged with one of the other two get something of value. Some obvious guys we like here at the Blazers Blog, Corey Maggette, Rashard Lewis, Luol Deng, and Mike Miller.

Draft position. Hollinger covered it a few weeks ago, but there is really not a major mathematical difference once you get past the first 5 picks. They're not going to get there, might as well just win as many games and keep us fans and the good vibes flowing. They should end up in that 8-10 range (Chase Budinger warning).

Playing time. Time to really settle in on the rotation instead of just throwing shit against the wall like they have all season long. It's time for The Foundation to play a lot of minutes together (Sergio, Roy, Aldridge).

Brandon Roy's coronation as the Rookie of the Year. Foregone conclusion.

More Magloire: Who Needs a Big Man?

Big man for sale! Big man for sale! Expiring-contract-big-man for sale!

Why on earth would any team want Jamaal Magloire? He’s expensive, and he kind of sucks.

Okay he just sucks.

I’ll tell you why: because he’s a large human being. Granted, when your only discernable skill is your physical stature, that’s not necessarily the most flattering compliment. However in the world of athletics, its frequently enough to make you very wealthy. Anyhow, there are four teams I see who are:
-Likely playoff teams
-In need of a big man

Given that a team acquiring Magloire makes no promises of his existence on their team past these next 30 games + playoffs, I disagree with Mr. Sheridan that it will be difficult to trade Magloire. Those four teams: New Jersey, Toronto, San Antonio and Washington. Let’s go team-by-team:

New Jersey
Why they need Magloire: they lost their starting center for the season, and their depth chart at the position currently reads: Mikki Moore, Jason Collins, Mile Illic. More like Ill-ouch! Thank you, thank you , be here all week.
Trades that work under the CBA: Juan Dixon, a draft pick, and Jamaal Magloire for Richard Jefferson. (I’m just saying.)

Toronto
Why they need Magloire: I covered this my last post. They have no backup C to speak of.
Trades that work under the CBA: Magloire for Morris Petersen & Kris Humphries. Magloire and Juan Dixon for Morris Petersen, Kris Humphries, Freddy Jones, and either PJ Tucker or Pape Sow.

San Antonio
Why they need Magloire: Their backup PF and top two C’s are: Robert Horry, Fabricio Oberto, Francisco Elson. They are rumored to be acquiring Melvin Ely in today which may help them here.
Trades that work under the CBA: Brent Barry and Matt Bonner for Magloire. Brent Barry and Fabricio Oberto for Magloire. Brent Barry and Jackie Butler for Magloire.

Washington
Why they need Magloire: They’ve got a shot at a top-4 seed, and their backup PF is Darius Songaila. Their two centers – Brendan Haywood and Etan Thomas – get in fights about, oh, five times per year, and they’re both on par with Magloire talent-wise.
Trades that work under the CBA: Unfortunately, both Thomas and Haywood have four years remaining on their contracts, so Portland wouldn’t want either of them. Hence, it would need to be a three-way: Magloire to Washington, Etan Thomas and Michael Ruffin to Toronto, Morris Petersen and Kris Humphries to Portland.

There’s a few ideas to chew on for now. If you come up with any good ones, email them to us at blazersblog@yahoo.com and we’ll post them here.

Looking Ahead: Next Year's Minutes

Thinking ahead to next season, what do the Blazers really need? Where might there be available minutes to be had?

Rather than screw around with the 5 positions, let’s go back to our age-old proven recipe of “guards”, “wings” and “bigs”. Looking at the situation from a very high level, here’s how I see the minute requirement next year:

Guards:
Jack – 30
Roy – 30
Rodriguez – 20

Wings:
Webster – 25
Outlaw – 25
Udoka - 15

Bigs:
Randolph – 35
Pryzbilla – 20
Aldridge – 25


Bear in mind that there are 240 minutes available in an NBA game (5 players * 48 minutes). The above totals get us to 225 minutes. You can say that players like Pryzbilla, Aldridge, Webster and Roy deserve more than what they’ve been allotted above, but I think once you look at the season-long average, this is what you’ll see. Assume for argument’s sake that the above is accurate. Where do the remaining 15 minutes come from? Clearly, you need more than an 9-man rotation over the course of an NBA season, and the above assessment doesn’t even take Darius Miles, Raef LaFrentz, or Portland’s likely-top-10 pick into account. Clearly the team is light in the “wings” department, as I don’t consider either of those three players to be a legitimate NBA starter yet. I think what it boils down to is that we’ll probably be okay with the existing players at Guard and Bigs, but Portland could use another Wing. Whether that comes through the draft or this year’s trade deadline remains to be seen.

Chris Sheridan Posts a Blazer Trade Rumor

From Chris Sheridan at ESPN.com:

“We know the most popular Portland trade chip to be run through the rumor mill this season has been Jamaal Magloire, but Insider is hearing that Portland is now "begging" teams to take the former All-Star off their hands. Magloire's $8.3 million contract expires at the end of this season, but big expiring contracts clearly aren't nearly the valuable commodities they were in recent years.  That's why we're listing Dixon as the likeliest member of the Blazers to be shipped out. Don't be surprised if he goes to Toronto for Fred Jones.”

A few bizarre items here.  First of all, that Portland is “begging” teams to take Magloire off their hands.  I’m not quite sure I buy this.  Portland can’t be “begging” teams to take him; they can let his contract expire and have no future commitment.  Worst case scenario is that he’s gone and they get nothing in return, which actually isn’t THAT bad of a scenario — we’ve got enough guys who need minutes already, more on this later.  Secondly, Sheridan intimates that the value of an expiring contract isn’t what it used to be.  I’m a bit unclear why that would be the case?  We have a fairly strong free agent class this coming summer, and cap room isn’t any less valuable than it once was.  Thirdly, we’ve speculated before that Portland could get into the Fred Jones mix for a number of reasons, and if they could land Jones straight up for Dixon (a trade that works under the current cap rules, by the way), that would be a very nice play for Portland.  Add Fred Jones to a starting lineup of Rodriguez, Roy, Zbo and Pryzbilla, and you’ve got a nice mix of ballhandling, shooting, athleticism and post play.  Jones has only 1 more year on his contract, so it’s not out of the realm of possibilities.

What’s really bizarre to me is that Toronto is a perfect spot for Magloire to land.  Looking at the Raps' roster, they break down like this-

PG: TJ Ford, Jose Calderon
SG: Anthony Parker, Mo-Pete, Fred Jones
SF: Garbajosa, Mo-Pete, Joey Graham
PF: Bosh, Bargnani
C: Nesterovic, Garbajosa  (yes, their starting SF is their backup C)

So clearly they have plenty depth at wing, with Parker, Pete, Jones, Garbajosa (a good rookie who's underrated) to deal for Magloire, who would fill a role at backup C that they clearly need.  A straight-up Morris Petersen for Magloire trade doesn’t work, and Toronto probably wouldn’t do it anyway, but both teams have enough spare parts to make a deal work.

Magloire Memorial All Star

If I told you there were these two players, which one would you say is the more likely All Star?

Player A: 18.2 points, 7.4 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 18.66 PER

Player B: 24.1 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 22.99 PER

Keeping in mind that they play the same position, if I tried to make an argument that Player A was a more deserving All Star than Player B everyone would laugh me out of the room. Well, Player A, Mehmet Okur is now an All Star and Player B, Zach Randolph is not. That is completely ridiculous. I was ok with the whole Dirk, KG, Duncan thing, clearly they are better and you can't have an All Star Game without those guys, but Mehmet Okur? Would you trade Randolph straight up for Mehmet Okur? No, of course not.

Emperor Stern essentially gave the bird to the Blazers twice with his recent All Star reserve selections. Presumably Okur was selected because the Jazz are good, but then he selected Ray Allen off the Sonics, who have one of the5-7 teams that are considerably worse than the Blazers. Thanks for that.

Anyway, I'm in a silver lining type mood this morning, so maybe it's a good thing that Zach isn't going to the All Star Game. Look, he's had a great year, but Zach in Las Vegas unchaperoned for 4 days is a BAD idea. Needless to say I'm not too concerned with Brandon Roy being there. He'll probably walk up to a craps table all cool and calm-like and roll an hour's worth of 6's and 8's, thank everyone, and stroll away.

Glossary of Terms

The Blazers Blog Glossary of Terms, it's been a long time in the making, mostly due to general laziness, but here it is. The list will continue to expand at all times, hopefully The Other Guy (more on this in a minute) will figure out a way to link to it over on the right hand side. Some of these are ours, some are from elsewhere just to clear things up. Starting with some of the more relevant and current terms:

The All Star: Jamaal Magloire, when he was acquired by the Blazers every newspaper report, press conference, and still most of the time it seems as if the Blazers broadcast team is being strictly told to refer to him as "All Star Center Jamaal Magloire".

The Marcus: LaMarcus Aldridge, just translating his name to make things easier on everyone.

Johnny Dixon: See LaMarcus Aldridge.

Subterfuge Stevie: Steve Patterson, Blazer GM, President, Emperor, whatever he's calling himself, might as well name himself the King of Scotland while he's at it. Anyway, not our favorite guy and the only one to be on this list twice, he likes to bully people and whenever a story broke that was not positive in nature he liked to say that the story was "filled with subterfuge and innuendo." Then of course within the next couple days it comes out that the story was true and it's just Stevie that's a liar and a jerk.

Pulling a PatterNash: The systematic destruction of a franchise. Patterson and Nash took over the franchise, proceeded to end the 22 straight playoff years, and took them to the worst record in the league in just 3 years, fairly impressive really. Some in Boston might call this "Pulling an Ainge" at this point.

Martell Person: Basically just Martell Webster but since he plays exactly like Wes Person, only younger, he's been called this from time to time.

The Other Guy: The nameless Moderator of this board, and no he's not me.

The Savior: Brandon Roy, looks to be the one to lead us out of the dark times, our first truly elite perimeter player since Drexler.

Spanish Chocolate, Spanish Fly, Spanish Magician: Sergio Rodriguez, basically pick a nickname that starts with "Spanish" and you've got him. I almost think we should call him the Spanish Deon Sanders or the Spanish Apollo Creed because of this development, could happen.

Flo Hartenstein Status: When a player is a token starter, although he only plays the first 6 minutes of the game. Also has duel meaning, can refer to when a player plays 20+ minutes while collecting 0 points, 0 rebounds, 0 assists, and 0 turnovers. Basically out for an evening jog.

Mo Mo The Clown: Former coach of the Blazers, Mo Cheeks, who was without a doubt the worst basketball coach I've ever seen. No plays on offense, no adjustments on defense, botched 2 for 1's, no time outs ever at the end of the games, just dreadful in every way. However, he was a great guy, famously saved that little girl when she was choking the Anthem, which got him another two years on his contract. I wish I made that up.

Kevin Shrute Pritchard: During the corporate restructuring that somehow ended up with Subterfuge Stevie naming himself GM, he elevated Pritchard to Assistant to the General Manager, or like Dwight K. Shrute, Assistant to the Regional Manager. Can also be listed as "Kevin Pritchard, ARM"

I'll Sue: Refers to whoever got punked in a fight, goes back to when Ha got hit by one of our random Euro's a few years back, yelled "I'll Sue, I'll Sue" at him, and then proceeded to go get a stick and chase him around with it.

PER: Player Efficiency Rating, stat created by John Hollinger, now over at ESPN.com, judging every player against everyone else at his position individually on their overall efficiency.

Vulcan: Not our term, just seems like a good time to point out that the owner of the team and multi-billionaire, Paul Allen, named the company that handles his finances after the planet that Spock is from.

Agent Zero: Gilbert Arenas, complete raving lunatic, one of our favorite players in the league.

NOOCH: The New Orleans Oklahoma City Hornets

The Black Mamba: Kobe, everyone should know this.

Bullets: The one true name of the Washington franchise, they are not referred to as anything other than the Washington Bullets on this site.

Sub Zero

Nice payback there Gilbert. Agent Zero went a sizzling 3 for 15 from the floor, 0 for 8 from downtown, and scored only 9 points as his Bullets took a pretty solid ass kicking at the hands of our boys this morning out in DC. The Blazers win puts them 2-0 on this roadie leading up to the all star break, and also gives them 22 wins on the season, 1 better than last year with 30 games to play.

The Marcus had 18 and 10, Jarrett Jack and Ime Udoka hassled Arenas all day, or so it sounds like. I should apologize to Blazer management (first time for everything I guess), it was ABC's broadcasting rights for the NBA that prohibited the game from being on today.

This week should be entertaining, the long awaited Blazers Blog Glossary of Terms will be rolled out, as will a look at the impending trade deadline and what the Blazers could/should do.

Digging Deeper: Blazer Lineup Statistics

Thanks to the good people over at 82games.com, we can look at a variety of non-traditional NBA statistics. Today, we’ll focus on Portland’s most effective 5-man lineups; who’s played the most, who’s been most effective, etc.

Portland has four sets of five-man lineups that have played more than any others. They are as follows:

1. Jack-Roy-Udoka-Randolph-Pryziblla. (304 total minutes have been played with this lineup)
2. Jack-Udoka-Webster-Randolph-Pryzbilla. (138 minutes)
3. Jack-Roy-Udoka-Randolph-Aldridge. (83 minutes)
4. Jack-Udoka-Webster-Randolph-Aldridge. (77 minutes)

Following those four, you then have 9 more lineups that have played between 42-49 minutes. Before we dive too deep, let’s ask a question: has the number of lineups that Porltand has used been abnormally large? Let’s use 40 minutes as a cutoff point. Portland has used 13 total lineups that total 40 minutes or more together. How does that compare to other Western Conference teams?

Let’s look at the top four teams in the West:

Dallas: 8 lineups
Phoenix: 13 lineups
San Antonio: 12 lineups
Lakers: 10 lineups
(average = 10.75)

And now, the bottom four teams (excluding Portland):

Memphis: 10 lineups
Seattle: 11 lineups
Sacramento: 10 lineups
New Orleans: 12 lineups
(average = 10.75)

What does that mean? Absolultey nothing. Which was the point. Good teams don't necessarily play a fewer amount of lineups together, despite what many hack sportswriters would like you to think. So, while Portland may be a touch on the high side, they certainly aren’t grossly so. And considering that they’ve suffered more injuries than most teams to-date this season, that’s to be expected.

Now that we’ve got that out of the way, and we know Portland’s top-5 most played lineups, which are the most effective? For one thing, let’s define “effective”. We can look at the top-5 lineups by total overall +/-, but that’s partially a counting stat in that two equally effective lineups will have different overall +/- depending on total time played. Hence, I propose we measure effectiveness by “win%”. Meaning, how frequently did that lineup outscore their opponent during the segments they were on the floor?

Here are Portland’s top 5-man lineups, their W-L and %, followed by total minutes played and rank. We’re only considering lineups that have played a total of 40 minutes or more together, so the rank is out of 13. (Bear in mind that Portland is playing at a .400 winning % as a team right now, so that’s the mid-point.)

1. Rodriguez-Dixon-Webster-LaFrentz-Magloire, 5-2, 71%, 42 minutes, #13
2. Jack-Udoka-Webster-Randolph-Pryzbilla, 7-3, 70%, 138 min, #2
3. Jack-Udoka-Webster-Randolph-Magloire, 4-2, 67%, 49 min, #6
4. (tie) Jack-Dixon-Udoka-Randolph-Magloire, 6-6, 45 min, #10
Jack-Dixon-Webster-Outlaw-Magloire, 6-6, 50%, 43 min, #11
5. Jack-Roy-Udoka-Randolph-Aldridge, 5-7, 42%, 83 min, #3
6. Jack-Roy-Udoka-Randolph-Pryzbilla, 8-12, 40%, 304 min, #1

I extended it out to #6 so you could see where the top lineup ranked.

Interesting. We should keep in mind one key thing: the starters, or #’s 2, 5 and 6 in the above rankings, always play against the other team’s best players, so they’re starting out at an immediate handicap. With that in mind, several items jump out:

-the lineup that Nate has used is playing right on par with the team’s win%. Not that that should be a shock to anyone, but worth noting: as those guys go, so goes the team.
-the small sample size of the top-rated lineup must be taken into consideration. No doubt they’d regress back a bit with more playing time. That lineup has played fewer than 3% of the season’s minutes.
-I’m shocked to see Martell Webster both a part of two of the top 4 lineups played and a part of 3 4 of the top 5 most effective lineups.
-LaMarcus Aldridge is not a part of a single lineup that has a 50% or better win%. Surprising.
-Nate’s getting pretty close with his second-most-used lineup also being the second-most-effective.
-Brandon Roy is nowhere to be seen; not in a single +50 lineup. One might argue “but he plays with the starters, and hence plays against the starters.” Then how do you explain Zach Randolp and Ime Udoka’s success?

In case you’re wondering, here is the rank of the individual players for how frequently the team has “won” its segments of the floor when that player plays. What follows is the rank, player name, % of minutes played, and Win%. We’re only going to pay attention to players who have participated in 15% or more of the team’s minutes.

1. Rodriguez, 19%, .500
2. Webster, 43%, .490
3. Pryzbilla, 25%, .429
4. Randolph, 71%, .408
5. Dixon, 47%, .404
6. Aldridge, 31%, .395
7. Outlaw, 34%, ..382
8. Udoka, 59%, .341
9. Magloire, 37%, .340
10. Jack, 67%, .333
11. Roy, 41%, .310

Wow. More interesting items. If you were to look strictly at these numbers, with no other factors considered, you’d come to the conclusion that Udoka, Jack, and Roy play far too much, and that Rodriguez, Webster, Pryzbilla, Dixon and Aldridge should be playing much more. I’m not saying this is right, I’m just saying that’s what these particular numbers are indicating.

I’ll take it one step further, and say if you were to look at these +/- numbers, then your starting lineup should be: Rodriguez, Dixon, Webster, Randlph, Pryzbilla, with your first guys off the benc as Aldridge, Outlaw and Udoka.

Fascinating stuff. Again, we aren’t saying this is right, but chew on this for a couple of days – I’ll be back next week with some further analysis.

Enjoy for now.

At Center, #12...LaMarcussssss Aldridge

A few little noteworthy items as the Blazers set sail on a 4 game roadie that includes the much anticipated stop in DC against Agent Zero and his 2006/07 Vengeance Tour, Nate is next in his sights.

According to Jason Quick, the time has apparently come for The Marcus to start. Amazing that it took Nate 50 games to start his best center, and of course a bit shocking that Joel has started 37 of the 50 games while being a total disaster for roughly 37 of the 37. I like Joel but he's going to have to play better, this isn't being too hard on him.

Canzano does like to stir up trouble doesn't he? This one is high comedy on many levels. If you haven't seen his story in the Oregonian yet, and yes I know I'm awake and coherent before most sane people, he's got a big story today on Portland Mayor Tom Potter taking an illegal gift of front row tickets. I'm not sure what the best part of that whole story is, but let's break it down in bullet format again:

• Potter is not allowed to take any entertainment gifts that value over $100. Yeah, sure.
• Potter was given two $34, 300 level seats and that's what he claimed on his report, apparently figuring that when he got to sit in the first row court side it was roughly the same price. That's some quality logic right there.
• The Blazers saying the tickets were "worthless". Well yeah, to them they were, to Global Spectrum they certainly weren't. The pissing contest continues.
• I guess I can't ever be mayor of Portland, I've accepted free tickets many times. Of course we never would have had a ski lift in downtown that cost $60 million if I were mayor either. I would have built a much more economical gondola or a high speed quad.

Oh well, kind of a slow news day when we're talking about stuff so trivial. The Blazers get a big piece of Adam Morrison and his Bobcats tomorrow night before the big showdown with Arenas on Sunday morning. In typical Blazer fashion, the game I'm looking most forward to on the trip will not be on TV. It's at 10AM Sunday morning, no NFL, and against one of the best teams in the East on the road. I guess it makes perfect sense that it wouldn't be on, or not. Looks like I'll have to resort to Wheels and his "Boom Shakalaka" crazyness.

Chalupa!

The Blazers lost last night to the Suns 109-102 in overtime, a terrific game in which the Blazers fought back time and time again and even had a chance to win it at the end of regulation. We were on the other end of the floor but it sure looked like Travis could have just dunked it and won the game instead of going for a lay up. The thing with the Suns is you always feel like you're down 6-10 points. You claw and scratch your way back, and then all of a sudden they hit a 3, get a long rebound and a lay up, and it's back up again. Still, a spirited effort, I was with clients so not exactly in note taking mode. This is just off memory in bullet format:

• Barbosa is just nails. He's almost unguardable he's so fast, but he knows exactly when to fake drive and knock down that jumper off the space created. He finished with 25 points, 7 assists, and 6 rebounds and it looked even better than that.
• Amare isn't the freak of nature he used to be, but he's a much better basketball player now. His wide array of baby hooks, jumpers, tip ins, and filling the lane on the break was a joy to watch, 36 points in all, and he was dominant from the beginning.
• Brandon Roy is going to be a Superstar and own this city. I know this is talked about a lot around here, but wait until he decides to take games over from the beginning. Right now he's a bit too concerned with getting everyone else involved, but when it really gets down to it in the 3rd and 4th quarters it's the Brandon Roy Show. He had 27 last night and most of them came after halftime. I love the way he goes to the basket.
• Zach was his usual Zach self, 33 points and 10 boards but this was the Zach I'd love to have around for a long time. He only took 15 shots and scored 33 points.
• Solid, solid F- performance by the Blazer Dancers. I guess part of the budget cuts from buying back the arena means no more slutty outfits for the Blazers Dancers, they were in jeans and flannels all night. It's like it was Pearl Jam Appreciation Night or something.
• Yes, I have a Jamaal Magloire Bobblehead, which provided a ton of entertainment before the game. He has a ball like he's shooting a hook shot or grabbing a rebound, unfortunately there's no sideline for him to drop it out of bounds for a turnover.
• They had one of my least favorite halftime acts, although it improved as time went on. They had Spinning Bunch of Basketballs guy, only apparently the AAA version since he dropped them about 10 times and they went spilling all over the court, so that was fun. Things picked up at the end when he brought out a cheerleader, who he proceeded to tie up with a various array of contraptions, one of the guys in our box announced "I guess the family portion of the halftime show just ended." Good times. The camera angles on the jumbotron while she was all tied up with balls spinning around her were...interesting. Pretty sure that's not what she signed up for.
• I didn't think that Travis was going to be playing this much, but he played 29 minutes and looked really solid again for the most part. Then he missed the wide open lay up with 1 second left in regulation that would have won it. Again, not to harp on him but Travis, send that bad boy in with some authority.
• The Marcus might be hitting the Rookie Wall. Not playing with quite the same vigor.
• Joel has reached Flo Hartenstein Status as a "starter" where he plays the first 6 minutes and then gets to work on an ass groove in one of the chairs on the bench. I think he should have his name on one like a movie director.
• Looking at the box score this morning, Mr Bobblehead only played 12 minutes? Felt like 30.

Overall, an enjoyable night in the luxury suite. Free drinks, free food, and a wildly entertaining game. It obviously would have been a bit better if Nash and Sergio were going at it. Phoenix would be just another good team, 50 wins max, without Nash, but with him they're headed for an epic showdown with Dallas, although you never want to mess with the Parker/Manu/Duncan trio in the playoffs if you don't have to. That's the hidden fight for the #1 seed, not home court, but the right to avoid the Spurs in Round 2.

Pirates!!!

You would think I'd be furious with the fact that Steve Nash hurt himself last night and will probably miss the game I've been looking forward to attending for weeks. While it certainly caused a bit of harsh language, immediately I noticed the silver lining. This means that the starting point guard tonight for the Suns will be another Lochi favorite, noted Pirate of the Caribbean, Barbosa. Sure he might be a little prone to mutiny, but he's a hell of a basketball player and a joy to watch. He might be the fastest player in the NBA and I love the way he attacks relentlessly. In the 33 minutes he played last night against the McNuggets he poured in 20 points, 5 boards, 4 assists to only one turnover. Needless to say, I'm still giddy even though Nash will likely be out.

The other silver lining is obviously this gives the Blazers a glimmer of hope. They've played surprisingly well against the better teams in the league this year, especially at home, and even gave the mighty Suns a bit of a scare on the road a few weeks ago. A full review will follow, probably tomorrow, in the meantime I believe The Other Guy has something exciting planned for later today as well.

A Meeting With The Bob's

Time for our monthly Efficiency report, as judged by the PER for everyone (more or less) on the Blazers roster. It's actually a few games past time to check on it but what can I say, I didn't get to it at the end of last week. Paul Allen did buy back the arena, technically he "signed a letter of intent" which I think means he plans to play college football for the Global Spectrum or something. Anyway, I'm not all that concerned about it, that's for Canzano to rant and rave about. The player efficiency of the Blazers through February 5th, remember 15 is the league average for their position, and we go in alphabetical order:

The Marcus Aldridge: 14.19. He's slipped a bit in the last month due to some rather horrid shooting nights, but still is holding up well in his first season in the NBA. The best center on the team.

Dan Dickau: 8.33. The worst part about the Sergio injury is it means more Dan Dickau. Yikes.

Juan Dixon: 11.44. I hate Johnny Dixon, he sucks, apparently Nate doesn't know this, let's move on.

Jarrett Jack: 14.81. Solid as ever. One half of the Point Guard Conundrum facing the franchise, still think he's the most likely to be traded in a "Go For It" move this off season.

Raef LaFrentz: 5.52. The only thing more ridiculous than there being a Jamaal Magloire Bobblehead Night (more on this in a minute) is the fact that there's a Raef LaFrentz Bobblehead Night on March 14th against the Pistons.

Jamaal Magloire: 10.45. Everyone knows how I feel about Magloire, but there is some sweet irony in the fact that I've got the corporate box with clients tomorrow night against the Suns and it happens to be Jamaal Magloire Bobblehead Night. I've got a pretty decent arm but I don't think I could actually hit him with the doll from the luxury box. Not sure what I'm going to do with it, maybe light it on fire as a sacrifice to the gods, maybe use it as my token throwing devise when the team stinks it up on tv, needless to say I'm giddy about the whole thing.

Joel Przybilla: 7.70. Good lord. The last 3 years for Joel are 15.58, 15.32, and now 7.70. I haven't seen tanking like this after getting a contract since Adrian Beltre signed with the Mariners.

Z-bo: 23.27. Still just outstanding, had a 42 pointer, mixed in a 26 & 17 game, we've covered his All Star situation, just simply bad luck more than anything else. Great year by Zach, can't say enough about it.

Sergio Rodriguez: 17.19. I need to start doing these in dyslexic order because the bottom guys in the alphabet are far more fun to talk about. Sergio, despite his injury, has been nothing short of spectacular. I'm more than a little upset about the timing of the injury, was really looking forward to a Sergio v Nash spectacular tomorrow night. Oh well, in case you missed it, Nate expects him back right after the All Star Break, February 20th against the Jazz.

Brandon Roy: 18.49. The Savior. Second highest PER on the team and getting better. He's making the transformation into superstar before our eyes. Not to get too far ahead of ourselves but in more traditional stats Brandon is averaging 15.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game. In his rookie year, Dwayne Wade averaged 16.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game.

Ime Udoka: 11.84. I know, I know, how can I hate Johnny Dixon at 11.44 and love Ime Udoka at 11.84. Well...um...11.84 is more than 11.44. Yeah, I got nothing. Sorry.

Martell Person, sorry Webster: 10.81. I don't want to say that he's reaching bust status, but he's reaching bust status. He has flashes of being decent, even has a game here or there where he actually looks pretty good. Most of the time he just generally sucks.

Note: I skipped Outlaw because he's been hurt and hasn't changed at all since the last one. Obviously this team's future lies with Sergio, Roy, Z-bo, and Aldridge, so not much has changed but it has been a surprisingly enjoyable ride so far this year, even at 20-29.

Pronk

Z-bo is officially the Travis Hafner of the NBA. An elite player who, simply by being in the wrong place, wrong league, at the wrong time, is not on the All Star team. Travis Hafner, who goes by the nickname Pronk due to his striking likeness to a character from "Shrek", has been one of the best hitters in the American League the last 3 years. He's had an OPS (on base + slugging percentage) of 993, 1.003, and 1.098 the last three years but has never made an All Star Team due to the presence of more high profile DH's in the league, Big Papi, Jim Thome, Frank Thomas, etc.

Z-bo on the other hand is the only player in the league averaging over 23 points & 10 rebounds a game, and ranks 11th in the entire NBA in PER at 23.66. The problem is that out of 10 players ranked ahead of Zach, 5 of them are power forwards in the Western Conference, Dirk, KG, Duncan (although it could be argued that he's a center), Boozer, and Brand.

So, while it seems ridiculous that Zach isn't an All Star, there is precedent here. Bad timing. The greater injustice would be The Marcus not making the rookie game. I can't explain how Jorge Garbajosa is on the team and Aldridge is not, unless Bargnani had it written into his contract as the #1 overall player that says he gets to bring his Euro buddy with him wherever he goes. I would have made a stink about Sergio as well, but since he's hurt we'll leave that alone.

There have been some cries for Jarrett Jack to be on the Soph team, but let's be honest, Jack's a solid player but he's not going to be selected at the point ahead of Chris Paul or Deron Williams.

The Ducks...um...nothing to see here, move along.

Durant vs Oden: Who Goes #1?

With the NBA and NCAA seasons chugging along just past their midpoints - too far from the Playoffs or Tourney and too removed from the start of the season – many are focusing on the thrilling race for the #1 pick in the NBA Draft, which is becoming clearer by the day that it’ll be one of two players; Kevin Durant or Greg Oden.

Both look like superstars-in-waiting; but whom will be selected first? The dominant center that immediately gives any team a huge step towards contention, or the do-it-all wing player with a seemingly unending list of skills?

It probably comes down to personnel; what does the team in question need more? As I see it now, there are roughly eight teams who have a realistic chance of snagging the #1 pick. They are as follows:

1. Memphis

The Grizz. An awful team built around a star power forward who may or may not get dealt this season. The Grizz could really go in either direction; they don’t currently have a center or a small forward of the future on their roster. They’d probably go for Oden, simply under the guise of “dominant centers are harder to find than dominant wings”.
The call: Oden

2. Boston

Bizarre team. Built around Paul Pierce and have Gerald Green waiting in the wings, but seem to think very highly of Kendrick Perkins, their young center, and Al Jefferson, their young PF. This is just a guess, but I think they’d go Durant if given the choice. Jefferson is looking like a better bet than Green at this point.
The call: Durant

3. Philly

Easy call. Between the existence of Andre Igoudala and Rodney Carney at SF, and their apparent desire to get out of Samuel Dalembert’s contract in the middle, they’d go for the big man.
The call: Oden

4. Seattle

Weird situation. They have their apparent center of the future in Robert Smith; plus their underrated SF Rashard Lewis has an opt-out in his deal. If they re-sign him long term, they probably go Oden. But that’s a big “if”.
The call: Durant

5. Charlotte

This is an abominable team, and I think they’ve taken a step backwards in the last 12 months. With Adam Morrison around and no clear center-of-the-future, they probably need Oden more than any team on this list.
The call: Oden


6. Sacramento

It’s only a matter of time until Artest and Bibby are both dealt, and they’re starting all over in “the city that’s on the way from San Francisco to Tahoe”, as best known in the Bay Area. Between Kevin Martin and Francisco Garcia, they appear to have a few good wing prospects, so the thinking here is that they’d go big.
The call: Oden

7. Atlanta

Another team with a glut of wing players (Johnson, Smith, Childress, Marv Williams) and no real center to speak of. Their current depth chart at the 5 reads: Zaza Pachulia, Lorenzen Wright, Solomen Jones. Another easy one.
The call: Oden

8. Milwaukee

Milwaukee’s starting front court for the next five years: Andrew Bogut, and Charlie Villanueva. Another clear answer.
The call: Durant

The final tally? 5-3, Oden. And that’s probably about right. Big men are generally a more coveted asset. I’ve got pretty high hopes for both these players and whichever teams end up with them will be happy in the end.

Ouch!

I think this goes into the category of two steps forward and one step back. The Blazers got a huge win last night over their nemesis, the Denver Nuggets. It's their 4th win in a row at home and 6th of 9 overall, bringing their record up to 20-27. To put that into perspective, they went 21-61 last season, so unless they are planning on going 1-34 to close out the year, it's certainly been a year of progress for the first time in a while. However, as it seems to be the norm with this team, there's always a down side, Sergio Rodriguez badly sprained an ankle last night, leaving the building on crutches and telling teammates that "it's bad", presumably through an interpreter.

The game was highlighted by Brandon Roy doing his Brandon Roy thing, 25 points, 8 assists, 6 boards, and further cementing his status as the clear rookie of the year and savior. Zach had a monster, even by his standards, 26 points, 17 boards. Jack was his usual solid self as well and even hit the dagger 3 pointer off an assist by Roy that iced the game. I still think Sergio is the future of the point guard spot in Portland, but this just shows the value they could get in trade for Jarrett Jack.

Sergio will probably miss quite a while, those ankle sprains can be fairly nasty, for lack of a better phrase, this bums me out. I'm going to the game against the Suns on Tuesday and was all kinds of excited to see Sergio and Nash run up and down the floor with each other. There won't be any pre-game Blazer Blog beer sessions this time however, this is a corporate box outing with clients, I'm not sure exactly who this money goes to in the arena power struggle but I'm sure Canzano can write a column about how much it sucks for someone.

One last non-Blazer related note, #9 Ducks...#5 Bruins...Pauley Pavilion...I'm already in the fetal position.