Blazers vs Cavs on NBATV

NBATV is broacasting a few of the week-old Las Vegas Summer League games every day, and Portland was on yesterday vs the Cavaliers. A few quick thoughts on the squad:

1. Telfair looks awesome. He's totally ready to play 30 a night, dish out plenty assists and do some significant scoring. I'm actually almost worried that he looks to score too much, but I think that could be a function of the caliber of players in this league. He looked like an offensive machine at times. The team's offense went to hell when Telfair left the game. He looks bigger, too. Clearly hit the weights and bulked-up this offseason.
2. Same goes for Outlaw. Despite his receding hairline, he's ready to score 15+ a night in the nba, his jumper looks awesome and he can get off his shot from anywhere. He's got to get consideration for the starting lineup, even if it's at the 2. He really shoots the lights out when he gets hot. You can tell he'll be one of those guys who just collects points in bunches and given the way Portland's offense struggled at times last year, he'll be a breath of fresh air.
3. Webster ... he's huge. Looks like a power forward out there. Big guy, shot looks good, but not sure he's ready to play consistent backup minutes in the nba quite yet. His jumper looks nice out of his hand, he sets his feet well, releases high and the good sign is that he doesn't need to dribble to shoot it, but so much more goes into getting off a shot in the nba than just getting in the hoop and he's probably not ready yet. Can look a little clumsy at times. I think he's more like a 5-10 minutes a night guy right now. That could be change further into the regular season, but I wouldn't count on him for much more than that at this point. He does a lot of floating around the perimeter on offense, standing behind the three-point line and can really disappear at times (and this is in the summer league). He does go after rebounds on defense and isn't afraid of contact in the paint. He fearlessly attacks the rim on fast breaks as well. The Glen Rice comparisons are understandable. Webster's got a lot of confidence, which is good see in such a young guy.
4. I really wish we could have seen Jack play.
5. Sinanovic is terrible. He's like a clumsier, smaller version of Ha and it's hard to see him ever having success in the league.
6. There isn't a whole lot of defense being played in this league. Portland shot 53% in the first half, Cleveland 58%. It's up-tempo, entertaining basketball. The second half was a bit slower, mainly due to less jumpers falling.
7. The play where Telfair hurt his wrist (as most of you probably read about last week) was a fast-break where he was attacking the rim, and it appeared to happen after the contact when he fell to the floor.
8. This team could struggle from the free-throw line this season. Telfair and Outlaw are both a little shakey, and if they're takign as many shots as it looks like they'll be taking, we could see some serious standing-bricks.
9. The officiating is horrible. Which is nice because it will get these guys ready for the real NBA.
10. These broadcasts on NBATV kind of suck. Their ticker at the bottom of the screen is too big and annoying, picture quality is mediocre and you never get replays. The score they show on TV doesn't contain either a game clock or a shot clock. Plus, the announcers go off on their own tangents for plays at a time and forget that us viewers need information (such as how much time is left or what the referees' call was). But the ghetto commercials are pretty funny and it gets us our hoops fix. So I'm not complainign ... too much.

Did any of you catch the game? E-mail me here as I'm curious to know what you thought. The next broadcast is tomorrow (Wednesday) at 5:00.

Additionaly, Portland has been making a tiny bit of non-Las Vegas news. Bring me my bullets!

• Here's to hoping that Portland is able to sign Antonio Daniels. He's a versatile, solid player who will fill two of our needs: a guy who can start at the "2" and play minutes at the point guard. If the club can ink him for a three-year deal at the MLE, I think that's a very nice pickup; I think this would also likely solidify that DA will be the amnesty-casualty. (Good riddance).
• If Daniels doesn't work out, rumors have Portland considering Juan Dixon. I don't quite understand exactly why they'd want Dixon. He isn't a young guy and would certainly want more than a two- or three-year contract, which it doesnt make a lot of sense for Portland to offer.
• And let's not forget that we still need a Power Forward. As much as I love Theo Ratliff, I don't know that we can count on him to provide 15 minutes-per-game as a backup to both the C and PF positions -- both from a health standpoint and the fact that he can get a little "plodding" on offense.
• The Shareef-Abdur Rahim situation: I actually admire the team for sticking to their guns and demanding a first round pick from New Jersey. I don't believe they dropped the ball at all. The trade-exception is nice, but doesn't buy them a whole lot and would still count against the luxury tax, so where's the motivation for the team to make that deal? Either way I'm okay with the situation. If New Jersey acquiesces and gives the first round pick, great. If Abdur-Rahim walks for the MLE and Portland gets nothing in return, that's fine as well. We don't want any players back (we've got plenty of those) and we don't want second-round picks, so if you can't get a first rounder, why take on additional luxury tax burdens?
• Assuming that both Van Exel and Richie Frahm, two players Portland owns rights to, don't end up on the active roster, and Portland amnesty's DA, and sign either Daniels or Dixon, the Blazers already have twelve guys who deserve spots: Telfair, Jack, Daniels, Webster, Monia, Miles, Patteron, Khryapa, Randolph, Pryzbilla, Ratliff, Ha. And that's without having signed a backup power-forward. One of Ha, Khryapa or Jack can easily start the season on the newly named "inactive list" (formerly known as "injured list", where a team can hide up to three players it doesn't have room on the roster for) and you aren't losing much from your rotation. Clearly, one of those SF's has to go. I imagine it'll be Ruben.

Lots of news surrounding player movement, as always this time of year. I love the NBA offseason. It's a blast, with all of the signings, trades, draft, etc ... there seems to be some sort of news every day.

A few items we haven't talked about yet:

Blazer Rumors

I'll refrain from analyzing the same thing that you all have heard 1000 times ... that Portland wants a first round draft pick from New Jersey and the Nets aren't willing to give it. I expect Shareef to end up in New Jersey one way or the other, and it's an interesting storyline to watch. And that's really the only prominent rumor surrounding Portland right now. They've got plenty of young assets and plenty of time to figure out how to shape the roster, so I'm fine with Nash and Patterson sitting back , giving Nate a chance to evaluate exactly what the team's got, and get more aggressive come August.

In other Blazer news, Travis Outlaw has looked fantastic in the Las Vegas Summer League, and Telfair and Outlaw have both looked good as well. I can't decide whether this is funny or unfortunate, but Ha Seung-Jin (who's father's name is Dong-Ki; don't get me started on that) will miss the remainder of the camp with tendonitis in his left knee. We reported here earlier that Ha was out of shape, and the tendonitis injury would seem to jive with that. And in case you're wondering what's up with Sergei Monya, he did secure his VISA - but not in time to join the team for the summer league. He'll be there for fall training camp ... shame.

Cleveland Cavaliers

I think you've got to view their offseason as a success thus far. True, they missed out on Michael Redd -- but they recovered very nicely by adding Larry Hughes. Hughes has had an up-and-down career, but he truly blossomed into one of the NBA's top-tier scorers last year, and he's a very nice defender. He won't give them that deadly outside shooter they'd hoped for, but he'll contribute in many other ways and will look very nice alongside LeBron. Additionally, Cleveland re-upped Big Z, Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Ilgauskas, when healthy, is one of the more underrated centers in the league. He's good for 16 and 9 every night, and although the 5 year contract is too long, it's not a terrible deal and I'd probably rank Ilgauskas as the second best center in the Eastern Conference.

Kwame Brown

The Lakers probably got taken in their trade, dealing a veteran backup point guard and Caron Butler to the Wizards for Kwame Brown, but it's impressive that they were able to only sign him to a two-year guaranteed deal, with a team option for a third year. I'm 100% sure that Brown could have received more money from a team like Atlanta or New York, but this is an interesting trade. I'm not sure that Butler was ever going to reach his full potential in LA playing next to Kobe and Lamar Odom, and if Brown doesn't work out, LA has got Will Bynum who will probably be ready to start in a few seasons. I hate saying it , but I think it's a nice deal for the Lake-show.

Jerome James

Another terrible move by the worst GM in sports: Isaiah Thomas. The Knicks are all set to give Jerome James a 5-year deal worth $29 million.

James' career highs, yes that's right not average, but highs, are 5.4 points and 4.2 rebounds in 16.9 minutes per game. Brutal. I guess that Isaiah figured that since he'd traded one of his centers last season - Nazr Mohammed - and traded another this offseason - Kurt Thomas - and had reached in the draft for a highly overrated center - Channing Frye - that he needed to overommit way too much money to a guy who essentially played two decent games all year, the two playoff games vs the Kings where James claimed he had "finally arrived". Isaiah Thomas is such an absurdly bad GM that I'm baffled Knicks fans are accepting this. Fortunately for him, Nate Robinson has looked fantastic in summer league play (though I'm curious to see how he does when real NBA players are patrolling the paing), masking his mistakes.

LA Clippers

The other team in LA is making some noise, the Clippers. I'll tell you something: I really like that team. It's too bad Shaun Livingston missed most of last year with injuries, or I'd tell you that they could compete for a playoff spot. The clips missed out on Bobby Simmons, but they did land Cuttino Mobley -- who's less of a complete player but more of a pure shooter. The Clippers' starting lineup now looks like this, assuming they resign Marco Jaric: PG - Jaric SG - Mobley SF - Maggette PF - Brand C - Kaman, with Livingston and Wilcox the first few guys off the bench. That's a nice young squad; it's too bad the franchise's history of losing takes over the attitude of all involved. But if they can get some development out of Kaman and Livingston ends up as good as we all think he can be ... watch out.

More McMillan Thoughts & A Blazer Trade Rumor

Two items for today's column.

1. Additional Thoughts on Nate McMillan

Yesterday I wrote that I was hoping for a little more out of Portland's coaching hire. After chewing on it for a day, I've come to the same conclusion that it appears most of you have: it wasn't my top chocie, but let's give the guy a chance.

My personal feelings were that I was hoping they'd hire Marc Iavaroni ... but he would have been, admittedly, a bit of a wild card. McMillan is a safe hire -- you know what you're getting with Nate, a very tough coach who won't put up with any BS and will help out the point guard. I lived in Seattle for nearly three years while Nate was the coach, and while they didn't have a lot of talent on the team, I wasn't ever too impressed with his X's and O's ... but was always impressed with his management style and the way he handled the players as he seemed to be a very good mentor for him.

Here's a quote from Steve Kelly, who's a columnist for the Seattle Times:

"Nate is very good with players, but he's not going to put up with crap in Portland. He's as far from Mo Cheeks as you can get. Darius Miles wouldn't have had an 'N' out of his mouth before Nate would have had a fist down his throat. He's tough, tough, tough, and that's just what that team needs."

Can't argue with that.

What this hiring comes down to is that I'm willing to give McMillan a chance. He really only had one successful year in five seasons in Seattle, but he also didn't have much talent to work with. There's rumblings that his top assistant, Dwayne Casey (now the head coach of the Timberwolves) was the main defensive specialist. Nonetheless, McMillan has done a nice job with Luke Ridnour, Ray Allen, and Rashard Lewis -- so hopefully that can translate over to Sebastian Telfair, Martell Webster, and Travis Outlaw. Zach Randolph and Joel Pryzbilla are more talented than any low-post players McMillan worked with Seattle. If he can get these guys to run plays on offense and play some serious defense, we'll all have to take our hats off. At the very least, McMillan will have the respect of the players much more so than Cheeks did.

I've received a few emails asking if McMillan was Seattle's coach when Ruben Patterson was a Sonic -- and the answer is "no". So there aren't any loyalties there, for what that's worth. I sent an email to Ian Furness, one of 1080 am's afternoon-drive radio hosts, asking what he thought the sentiment seemed to be in Portland of the hire. His response:

There were a handfulof calls from people who didn't want Mr. Sonic here, but most were very excited. A couple of things to keep in mind: 1) Nate was offered an average of 5 million a year over 4 years bySeattle. 2) The Blazers offered him an average of 5.5 million over 5 years, witha 6th year a team option. Outside of the extra year, when you add in state income tax and the inconvenience of commuting, I think you can argue it wasn't about the money.

Very interesting point. Let's hope Nate does a great job and we all have man-crushes on him in six months.

2. Portland Trade Rumors

Chad Ford is saying (any time you see those four words, you should know by now to take the subsequent sentences with several grans of salt) that the Timberwolves are interested in two Portland players -- Shareef Abdur-Rahim and Darius Miles. The thought here is that Portland would be receiving Wally Szerbiak in return, either straight up for D-Miles (and some additional cap fodder) or in a sign-and-trade for Shareef.

I have mixed feelings on these two deals. Acquiring Wally would be nice, and it would take some pressure off of our young 2-guards, but he's got a monstrous contract that pays out $46 million over the next four years. That's scary, and I don't think Portland wants Martell Webster coming off the bench for that long. Doing a sign-and-trade for Shareef doesn't help Portland's logjam at small forward, and you're adding another wing player who needs 30 minutes per game. So there are "issues" with each deal. Face-value, I like the idea of acquiring one of the league's better 2-guards ... I just don't like his contract. What's the point of acquiring Szerbiak at this juncture? You've already got your 2-guard of the future, why pick up another with a big, long-term contract? The team would be much better in the short term but it may not be the best idea for the long-term.

Blazers Hire McMillan

Passing up an opportunity to be brave and take a chance on a promising young coach, Portland instead today hired a man who's had one year of moderate success and won one playoff series in five years as a head coach, Nate McMillan.

Not only did they forego an opportunity to grab one of the NBA's bright young minds, they made an insane five-year, $30 million commitment to this coach, making him the second-highest paid coach in the NBA.

McMillan is, essentially, a slightly better version of Maurice Cheeks: a players' coach, former point guard, not necessarily an X's and O's guy. He'll do a better job of commanding the respect of the players and installing an offense. They could have done a lot worse, but I was hoping for a little more. What are your thoughts? We'll have more on this later today.

Clarification on Amnesty Clause

I've received a few emails from readers about how this amnesty clause works that was built into the new CBA.

To clarify: in the latest collective bargaining agreement, the owners built in a clause that allows each team to release one player before October 1, and the team will not have to pay luxury tax on that player's salary as they normally would have. The player who is released does still count against the salary cap for the team who cuts him. They also still have to pay the player the full contract amount. Essentially, the only way it helps a club is that they don't have to pay the luxury tax on that particular salary. For teams who are under the cap, they don't pay luxry tax, so it doesn't help them ... it's mainly for teams who are are way over the cap like the Mavericks, Blazers, and Knicks, who could have to pay as much as $2 in luxury tax for every $1 they are over the cap, depending on how far over they are. So, they can essentially save twice the guy's contract in taxes they wouldn't have to pay.

For example, say the cap is $60 million for purposes of this argument, and you have a payroll of $75 million. This team would have to pay$30 million in luxury tax (twice the amount they're over). But if you cut a player making $10 million over the next three years with this amnesty exception, then you're saving $20 million in luxury tax per year, because this player doesn't count against the luxury tax calculation. And you save that money through all three years, for a total of $60 million in tax savings. The player still counts against the salary cap and you still have to pay him $10 mil, but you don't pay the luxury tax against his salary. So releasing a player making $10 million can turn out to be worth much more than that.

So where does this leave Portland? Theo Ratliff has about $11 million per year for three years left on his deal, and Derek Anderson has about $9 million per for two years left on his deal. This would seem to point that Ratliff would be the amnesty casualty ... but he's also got much bigger trade value than Anderson. So stay tuned.

More Blazer Rumors

1. Several of you have reported seeing the Brian Grant rumor ... this being the notion that the LA Lakers will use their amnesty exception and release Brian Grant this offseason, and Portland will then re-sign him for the $1 million veteran's minimum. BlazersBlog correspondent Lochi weighs in:

"I heard last night ... that he's only really interested in signing with Portland and will do so for next to nothing since the Lakers will still have to pay him his big deal. To me this is a no brainer on many levels. He can't play effectively for more than about 10-15 minutes, which is perfect for Z-bo, you don't lose any rebounding when he comes in, and from a PR standpoint it just doesn't get any betterthan this because who didn't love Brian Grant (fans wise I mean). He still has his house here out in Tigard."

Agreed on all counts. This would be a great deal for Portland, both from a backup-PF stance and a PR stance. It seems a little far-fetched but certainly not out of the realm of possibilities.

2. This from Chad Ford's chat today:

Kevin (New Jersey): Hey Chad, how big are the chances of Shareef Abdur Rahim running alongside J Kidd, Vince, and RJ in a Nets uniform next season?

Chad Ford: They are praying. He'd be a great fit there and both Shareef and the Nets know it. The problem is that several other teams like the Spurs are talking sign-and-trade with the Blazers. That allows them to pay more money. The Blazers are trying to work out a Rasho Nesterovic for Abdur-Rahim swap.

Like most of what Ford says, I don't believe this to be true. We don't need Nesterovic -- he makes too much money and Portland already has two centers. I assume this would lead to Ratliff being the amnesty cut, but again, don't put a lot of stock in this.

3. Blazer coaching rumor ... they're supposedly offering McMillan five years and $30 million. This is in response to Seattle's 4-year, $18 million offer. I'm not sure how much faith to put into that number that Portland's offering (why outbid themslves by so much?), but I'm really, really hoping that they don't hire McMillan. Please, people, for the love of god, do the bold thing and give the job to Marc Iavaroni. Hopefully the re-signing of Ray Allen will prompt McMillan to simply use Portland to get more money out of Seattle, but we'll see. This is one time where I'd be happy to see us as a pawn.

4. Non-Blazer-related item: I thought we'd left the era of teams throwing max or near-max deals at second-tier players? Now we're hearing rumors that guys like Joe Johnson, Sam Dalembert, and Eddie Curry could get close to max deals. These guys are very nice players, but maximum contract? It really makes me shake my head that clubs haven't realized the extent to which these contracts saddle teams when players who don't deserve it get them.

Blazer Summer League Update

Portland begins its summer league play tonight (versus the Knicks' squad at 3:00 pm PST), and here's what we're hearing about the team. You can see the team's roster here. The names of note include Telfair, Webster, Jack, Monia, Outlaw, Sinanovic, and Ha. Here's what we're hearing:

-Sergei Monya: He's trying to get his VISA situation handled, and it will probably be another week before he can join the team, meaning he'll likely miss the first 3-4 games.

-Martell Webster and Travis Outlaw are going to be the focus of the team. Coach Bill Bayno (one of Portland's scouts) said that "we might play them until they drop", and he wants to see both play extensively with Telfair. Pritchard added that "we might be seeing our 1-2-3 of the future". I found that comment intersting for a two reasons ... 1. What does that mean for Darius Miles? He's not exactly an elder citizen. 2. Clearly this means that the team isn't looking at trying to make Outlaw a shooting guard, which some had speculated.

-Ha reported badly out of shape. The club isn't sure at this point if he's got the stamina to play even starting minutes in the summer league. A bad sign for a player who showed a bit of promise last season.

I wish that NBA TV would televise these games live. It's a travesty that we can't see every summer league game on the tube. A few of them will be broacast on NBA TV next week on a tape-delayed basis ... here's when Portland's games will be televised:

7/13 game, Cavaliers vs. Blazers (airs 7/19 - 6:00 PM ET / 4:00 AM ET / 2:00 PM ET on 7/20)
7/14 game, Blazers vs. Wizards (airs 7/20 - 8:00 PM ET / 2:00 AM ET / 12 noon on 7/21)
7/15 game, Cavaliers vs. Blazers (airs 7/22 - 8:00 PM ET / 4:00 AM ET / 12 noon on 7/24)

Blazer Draft Review

My apologies for going AWOL the past week ... clients in town and a short holiday vacation ate up all the free time. On to the biggest Blazer news since firing Mo Cheeks: the draft review!

Overall, I thought Portland did well. Not great, but well. Nash ended up turning the #3 and #35 picks into the #6, #22, and a first-rounder next year.

With the #6 pick, Portland selected (predictably) Martell Webster, a big shooting guard from Seattle who has an "nba-ready body" and may be the best shooter in the draft. A very solid pick. It may take a few years for Webster to develop, but I like him as a player and will be excited to see him run the backcourt for Portland next season alongside Sebastian Telfair. Clearly, Portland wasn't bluffing when they told Gerald Green that he'd need to compete against other players to be considered as a top-ten pick. I expect Webster to contribute in a similar manner as Telfair last season; coming off the bench for limited minutes early in the year and eventually taking over the starting spot by late season. It's only a matter of figuring out how quickly he can pick up the offense and adjust to the speed of the NBA game. A nice pick, and one we can all be excited about. I also have to give John Nash credit for immediately stating that "we don't expect Martell to immediately come in and start". It was obvious, but needed to be said nonetheless.

As for the #22 pick, I like Portland grabbing Jarret Jack. We here at BlazersBlog predicted that this could be a spot that Portland looked at moving up to (although not for a point guard) and dealing the #27 and #35 for this pick was fine. We've got enough youngsters on our roster, trading two to upgrade to one is a solid move. One thing about this pick that I'm not buying is the "he'll take some pressure off of Telfair" aspect. I believe the opposite to be true ... a veteran who didn't have starting aspirations would take pressure off of Telfair; in my opinion, selecting Jack actually adds a bit. Portland now has two PG's of the future, and if Jack (who's bigger and plays a different style than Telfair) plays "too well", it could could indeed cause Telfair to look over his shoulder. Which may not be a bad thing. Regardless, I think the Telfair-Jack combo at point guard will be a great compliment.

So where do the Blazers go from here? The squad's depth chart looks like this:

PG: Telfair, Van Exel, Jack
SG: Anderson, Webster, Monya
SF: Miles, Patterson, Outlaw, Khryapa
PF: Randolph,
C: Pryzbilla, Ratliff, Ha

Four things immediately stick out:

1. By my count, that's fourteen players. And Nash has spoken about adding veterans, which means a few guys have to go. This doesn't even include Richie Frahm, whom the team has restricted FA rights on. There are a few obvious solutions ... the first of which being that they'll probably let Van Exel go with nothing coming back in return. The second being that the new collective bargaining agreement contains a loophole that allows each team to, during this offseason, release one player and not pay the luxury tax on his salary. The obvious candidates for this on Portland's roster would be Derek Anderson, Ruben Patterson, or Theo Ratliff. You can draw up a list of pro's and cons for each player but it's a near certainty that it will be one of those three. My preference? Anderson. Yes, he's the only player on the team with starting 2-guard experience ... but he's worthless. I'd rather suffer through either watching a rookie struggle to learn the game or signing a retreat veteran stopgap than have DA's terrible game playing 25+ minutes per night. So there's two spots gone, and we're down to twelve.

2. We'v got a logjam at Small Forward. There are only 48 minutes per game available at the small forward spot, and you can't keep four guys happy that way. Miles has the talent to be the team's starter when he feels like it, and Outlaw has proven that he needs more minutes with his scintilating play last season. We have no idea what we've got with Sergei Monya, and he'll likely get the mop-up minutes ... which leaves Ruben Patterson as the odd-man out. If you look at the team's +/- numbers, Patterson ranks near the top in player efficiency, and the entire league knows that he plays a very high-intensity hustle game. Now that his contract only has two years left, he's got some trade value, and I expect Portland to deal him during this offseason.

3. We have no backup PF. Zach Randolph is one of the league's best PF's when healthy, but he can't play all 48 minutes. Theo Ratliff can play some PF, and since Pryzbilla has replaced him as the team's starter, it's another way to find him minutes (if he is not cut after all). This is the area where I expect Portland to use most of it's mid-level exception, to sign a veteran to take up some of those backup PF minutes and provide a bit of leadership. A couple of ideas: Udonis Haslem, Christian Laetner, Bo Outlaw, Vitaly Potapenko.

4. Assuming Van Exel doesn't play for Portland, that's an awfully young PG tandem. Yes, it sure is. And as much as Telfair and Jack's games compliment each other, we're still talking about a 19-year old and a rookie here. We've got to add a veteran who can play some minutes at the PG to give these guys some tutelage. This is the other area I expect Portland to use its MLE on. The immediate thought is Ronald Murray ... he could both handle some PG minutes and play SG if the team releases DA. The problem there is that Murray would probably want the full exception, and then you don't have anything to sign a backup PF with. Additionally, he'll want a long deal, and he isn't a viable long-term solution at either position here. I'd more expect the team to go with someone like Darrell Armstrong or Erick Strickland ... a cheap vet with experience they can sign for the short-term.

Other draft notes:

• I can't believe Danny Granger fell to #17. Unbelievable. Teams like Toronto (Charlie Villanueva ... by far the worst pick of the day, and Joey Graham), LA Lakers (Andrew Bynum), and New Jersey (Antoine Wright) are really going to regret passing on him. Indiana got the steal of the night grabbing Granger at 17.
• Utah's selection of Derron Williams over Chris Paul was interesting. It's as close to a Moneyball debate as you can get in hoops ... Paul's on-court performance versus Williams' all-around skill. He'll be compared to Paul for his entire career, and I expect them both to do very well.
• Interesting that Denver passed on Francisco Garcia at #20, and took Julius Hodge. Garcia was probably the second or third best shooter in the draft, and Denver could certainly use him more than Hodge's half-court style. Nonetheless, Garcia will be a great fit in Sacramento.
• For those of you who have Comcast on-demand, check out the sports and fitness section, then click NBA TV, then the draft, then player profiles. The analysis is useless, but they've got quick 3-4 minute videos of both Webster and Jack where you can see some highlights.

Another Blazer Rumor ...

The latest rumor floating around is that Portland is trying to use the #27 pick to move up in the draft. What they'd include with that pick I'm not sure. This is one of the deepest, most talented drafts that I can recall in several years and the thought of Portland landing another top-20 pick is delightful. A few ideas:

• #13 - Charlotte Bobcats. They're rumored to be wanting out of the #13 pick, think they'd go for a deal involving Ruben Patterson or Darius Miles and the #27?
• #15 - New Jersey Nets. They're also rumored to be looking to acquire multiple picks. What could Portland add to the #27 to get the #15 from them?
• #19 - Memphis Grizzlies. Jerry West has been shopping the #19 all over the league. He's got a logjam at SG, but Bonzi Wells is rumored to be on his way out. Might Sergei Monya or Ruben Patterson interest the Grizz?
• #22 - Denver Nuggets. Denver's got the #20 and #22 picks, and if they can't package them to move up, they'll almost certainly either trade the #22 or use it on a project that they can leave in Europe for a few years. They need a 2-guard, would they be willing to deal the pick for Sergei Monya?

With all of the talent in this draft, Portland certainly won't be the only team looking to acquire more picks. They'll have some competition, but they've certainly got the assets. Here's to hoping Nash can pull off another tricky maneuver.

BlazersBlog Mock Draft

Mock Drafts are pretty silly things ... they make about as much sense as preseason predictions. That said, we can't help ourselves here at BlazersBlog. Following is our prediction for how things go down tonight for the first ten lottery picks.

1. Milwaukee Bucks: Andrew Bogut, PF/C, Utah. They're rumored to be deciding between Bogut and Marv Williams, and they'll go with the bigger need and safer pick -- Bogut.

2. Atlanta Hawks: Marvin Williams, SF, North Carolina. Atlanta's put up the facade that they may select a point guard here, but I'm not buying it. Williams has got the biggest upside and they need to swing for the fences.

3. Utah Jazz: Derron Williams, PG, Illinois. This pick will certainly be either Paul or Derron Williams. We're leaning towards Derron as he's a slightly better fit for Jerry Sloan's offense.

4. New Orleans Hornets: Chris Paul, PG, Wake Forest. Either Williams or Paul would be a great fit in New Orleans, and they'll be happy to land either player.

5. Charlotte Bobcats: Danny Granger, SF, New Mexico State. This could be where we see our next trade. Charlotte wants a point guard, and they know that they can probably trade down and still get Raymond Felton. It wouldn't surprise me to see Toronto move up two spots to snag Granger.

6. Portland TrailBlazers: Gerald Green, SG, Gulf Shores Academy HS. This is where I expect another trade to go down. The LA Lakers have been rumored to be in love with Green, and Portland really wants Martell Webster, whom they can get later in the draft. The Knicks are also after Channing Frye, and they know that with Granger off the board, Toronto probably grabs Frye at #7. So if they want him, they'll need to move up. It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if Portland moved back to #8 in a deal with the Knicks or to #10 in a deal with the Lakers. If the Lakers acquire the pick, it's Green. If the Knicks acquire the pick, it's Frye. If Portland keeps the pick, it very well could be Martell Webster.

7. Toronto Raptors: Channing Frye, C, Arizona. Toronto got burned by a crappy center last year and they're rolling the dice on another one this year. Frye will be a decent pro, but my hunch is that because of his girth (or lack thereof) he'll spend more time on the perimeter than he will on the low blocks. Think: a poor-man's Rasheed Wallace. The other option is that Toronto's in heavy trade talks with New Orleans regarding Jamaal Magloire, and may deal the pick ... although it would still be Frye.

8. New York Knicks: Andrew Bynum, C, St Joseph HS. The Knicks need a center of the future (and of the present, if the Kurt Thomas deal goes through). Bynum is a project but everyone (including the Blazers) loves him. The alternative here would be Sean May.

9. Golden State Warriors: Hakim Warrick, PF, Syracuse. Bizarre choice, but this is who the Warriors claim they want. Why they'd need another forward with Dunleavy, Pietrus, Murphy, and Biedrins is beyond me -- perhaps this indicates a Dunleavy trade?

10. LA Lakers: Martell Webster, SG, Seattle Prep HS. If the Lakers are making this pick for themslves, it won't be Webster -- more likely PG Raymond Felton. However, I anticipate they'll find a way to move up, and Webster will be the choice of the team selecting here.

Portland Trade

The Blazers made a trade today.

Portland gets:
-#6 pick
-#27 pick
-2006 Detroit First Round Pick (that Utah owned from a previous deal)

Utah gets:
-#3 pick.

Utah desperately needed a point guard, and they weren't going to get it at #6 -- at least not one of the top two point guards, Derron Williams or Chris Paul. Obviously, Portland is not interested in a PG because they drafted Sebastian Telfair last season and feel that he could be a star.

On paper, this deal is okay for the Blazers -- they'll be able to acquire Martell Webster with the #6 pick, and perhaps grab another HS or European project later in the draft at #27 (Martinus Andrieskivicious?), as well as grabbing another piece to use next season (the Detroit pick). However, I do feel that Portland made one critical error: they acted too quickly.

Why make this deal now? I don't undestand it. With the uncertainty around Marvin Williams (it's rumored that Atlanta may pass on him at #2), and the chance he could fall to the #3 pick, there's a chance that the teams trying to acquire Portland's #3 pick would up their offers at the last minute. You've now removed that opportunity, and you've given most of the trade leverage to the #4 pick.

Additionally, they didn't acquire anyone to start at Shooting Guard, didn't get rid of any contracts, and didn't add any additional lottery picks. I was hoping that, in exchange for moving down from #3, Portland could at least have acquired two of those items as opposed to one. They've essentially moved down from 3 to 6 for the low low cost of two late-20's picks.

Again: why act so quickly? Why not make a trade later in the day? It's worth noting that team President Steve Patterson did add "we aren't necessarily done making deals today" at the press conference, but I'm officially disappointed. Now, perhaps the team can go out and hire Nate McMillan, and we can change this website to "WarriorsBlog".

Game 7 Recap

A few quick thoughts on game 7:

There's nothing better than game seven in a championship series. It just feels like it's got more weight behind it when the teams have battled to a draw through six previous games ... that's one aspect of the MLB and NBA playoffs that I love. That said, game sevens normally aren't spectacular, jaw-dropping games. Why? I imagine because of the pressure that's put on the players, the amount at stake, etc. That said, last night's game was much better during the second half than it was in the first half.

It took awhile for the Spurs to get going, but once they did, they never looked back. Tim Duncan's third quarter -- you could feel him heating up through the TV -- was the best 12 minutes by any player in any quarter this series. You don't often seen Duncan demand the ball, put his team on his back, and take charge; normally he's the quiet assassin. Thursday night, however, he did just that in the third quarter -- ending up with 12 points, 6 rebounds, and 1 block for the period. He single-handedly brought San Antonio back from the dead and reminded us all why he's probably the best all-around player in the NBA today.

The most disappointing thing for Detroit was that nobody stepped up on offense. Their leading scorer, Rip Hamilton, had 15 points and I was surprised to see he was in double-digits looking up the stats online after the game (since ABC doesn't ever, and I mean ever feel the need to provide us with these items). Going into this game, I wrote to a friend that one of Hamilton, Price, or Billups would have to come up huge in the fourth quarter for Detroit to win, and neither did. Those three guys combined shot 13-39 from the field for the game. In the fourth quarter alone, Prince was 0-2, Hamilton 1-4, and Billups 2-3. Three field goals combined from your three best perimeter players? I believe that cost Detroit the game.

Other notes from the game:

• Anyone notice Rasheed's contribution? The box score doesn't show it, but he played a stinker of a game. Zero rebounds in the first half, and then foul trouble put him on the bench early in the third quarter, when Duncan began heating up. To follow that, he took by far the worst shot of the game. Down six with 2:20 left and 15 seconds on the shot clock, he put up an airball three-point shot that fell straight into Rober Horry's hands. Essentially a turnover, and the subsequent Spurs' hoop advanced the lead.
• Another huge play late in the fourth: Spurs up four, Duncan posts up on the block, Detroit defense collapses on him and he finds Ginobili with a perfect chest pass for a wide-open three. Unheralded but spectacular play.
• Tony Parker was terrible last night. The Spur offense looked better all game with Ginobili bringing up the ball and initiating offense, and Parker couldn't find his shot, to the point that he was passing up wide-open three pointers in the fourth quarter.
• The Spurs made 7 of their 8 free throws down the stretch. Supposedly their biggest weakness, they were rock-solid.
• 12 toal fast break points in the game between the two teams. Brutal.

Terry Porter?

With Milwaukee firing Terry Porter, naturally there's been speculation that he could be a candidate for Portland's coaching job.

I have mixed feelings about this, personally. Porter's always been a more soft-spoken guy, but as a player he was fantastic. Few people remember that he averaged 18 and 8 for about five years, made a few all-star teams, and used a lot of smart and heady play to make up for a lack in physical skills.

Is he a good NBA coach, though? His two years in Milwaukee were a mixed bag. The first year, it was a huge surprise to see Milwaukee sneak into the playoffs, and despite a first-round exit was considered a success. The second year I think was considered a disappointment, though injuries played a significant role and I'm not sure that Milwaukee team had a ton of talent to begin with.

Here's an email I sent to a friend yesterday on the topic:

Let me tell you something about Terry Porter: he is my ALL TIME favorite blazer. he was my favorite player growing up and probably my favorite NBA player of all time. You're talking to a guy who used to sport "Porterland" tshirts in elementary school. But I have mixed feelings about him as Blazer coach. I know it's a slam dunk PR wise, but as much as he was a fantastic point guard who was great at knocking down jumpers and 3's and leading the offense , I just am not sure about hiring Terry. I guess I haven't really seen anyting that spectacular in Milwaukee. Not thatI've seen anything bad, I just don't really know the guy as a coach. I know he's very humble and very nice, and was a very good x's and o's player ... but I'm just not sure about that right now.

What do you think?

Blazer Trade Rumor

I'm sure that most of you by now have gotten wind of the latest trade rumor involving the Blazers. There are three of them floaing around right now, and as always we're happy to discuss all three.

1. Portland - Utah Trade

Portland would send the #3 pick, Ruben Patterson, and the rights to Sergei Monya to the Utah Jazz in exchange for the #6 pick, the #27 pick, Gordan Giricek and Kirk Snyder. There are a few different versions of this deal floating around, some without Giricek and the #27 pick, some without Patterson. But this seems to be the most prevalent.

It's a bizarre deal, because you'd think that Portland would be moving down in the draft to #6 to select a shooting guard such as Martell Webster or Gerald Green. But in this deal, Portland would receive both a solid if unspectacular guy who can step in and be an upgrade over DA at shooting guard in Giricek and what would likely be percieved as a potential shooting guard of the future in Kirk Snyder (ironically, the guy I wanted them to take with the first pick last year).

Looking at these two players a little closer: Giricek is listed first on Utah's depth chart at SG. His demensions are 6-5, 210lbs, 28 years old. Last season he averaged 8.8 pts, 1.7 ast, 2.2 rebs in 20 mpg last year (which looks bad, but consider that we're talking about 20 minutes per game. If you double that to 40 mpg, he's at 17.6 pts, 3.4 asts,4.4 rebs... not horrible.) Shooting: 45% FG, 81% FT, 37% 3pt. Allof those are right at his career avgs. He's averaged 10.8 points in 25 mpg in his career. He is entering the second year of a four-year, $16 million contract. So he's a serviceable two guard that would be a step up from DA while we waited for a younger guy (Martell Webster or Gerald Green?) to develop. As for Snyder, he's a 6-6 225 lb shooting guard. Last year, his rookie year, he was pretty crappy, shooting 37% fg, 66% ft, 35% 3pt. In 13 mpg, heaveraged 5 pts, 1.8 rebs and .5 asts. I know that his rookie year was considered largely a disappointment; I also know that he had considerable trouble getting out of Jerry Sloan's doghouse, and played better towards the end of the season.

Honestly .. I'm hoping for a little more than two unspectacular players out of the #3 pick, and though I wouldn't be terribly upset, would be very curious to see what the club does with that #6 pick after acquiring two new shooting guards. I believe that Portland and Utah make good trading partners in this situation but have a hard time believing that this deal would go down as-is.

2. Portland - Charlotte

Bernie Bickerstaff, Charlotte's coach/GM, has acknowledged that Portland has made an offer of sending the #3 pick to Charlotte in exchange for the #5 and #13 pick and that the deal remains on the table, but continues to maintain that he's not interested. My feelings are that may change come draft day, once we find out exactly which of the Marvin Williams/Andrew Bogut/Chris Paul triumverate is available with that #3 pick. But it sounds like he's looking for Portland to include a veteran along with that #3 pick, which it doesn't sound like Portland is wililng to do. Keep an eye on this situation, as it seems to be the most likely of trade partners at this point.

3. Portland - LA

Yes, you read that correctly. I should caveat this paragraphy by mentioning that I haven't heard any legitimate rumors that Portland and the Lakers are talking trade, only speculation that they may be.

The speculated deal is the #3 pick and Ruben Patterson for Caron Butler, Chucky Atkins and the #10 pick. Personally, I don't believe that LA would want Ruben Patterson. Phil Jackson has already had him in LA and he wasn't (and never will be) a good fit for the triangle offense. From Portland's perspective, it's an interesting deal in that you'd get a good backup PG in Atkins, a wingman who can man the SG post while the #10 pick (would Webster still be available?) develops. Meanwhile, LA gets to draft either Gerald Green -- whom they're rumored to be enamored with -- or their PG of the future, either Deron Williams or Chris Paul. So you can understand why folks are speculating about the deal, though again I don't believe that the Lakers would have much interest in Ruben Patterson.

That's what we're hearing ... with Portland essentially holding the card to the draft's best PG, they've got several suitors for the pick. Information will be provided as it pours in. Also, be on the lookout for our first Mock Draft to be released this week.

Blazer Coaching Update

Jason Quick is reporting that the Blazers have settled on their coaching decision.

They want to hire Marc Iavaroni -- but only after they talk to Nate McMillan. I'll pause here to let you bang your head on your desk for a minute.


(Done yet?)

You must be joking. Nate McMillan? I'd say it's safe to describe Mo Cheeks as a "poor man's Nate McMillan". Cheeks would be graded about a D- on the X's and O's, and a B on player relationships. McMillan is a C and B+. Do we really want something in the same mold as what doesn't work? I find this type of thing very frustrating. You've got a chance to snag one of the hotter assistant coaches in the league, who has tremendous experience (he's been an assistant under D'Antoni, Pat Riley, and Mike Fratello, and played for Pete Newell), is known for developing guys at the same position as your best player, and you're holding off on it because you want to talk to a guy who's had one good season in four years. McMillan "wasn't the team's X and O's guy", and you can't even speak with him for another two weeks. Additionally, Iavaroni gets the indignation of knowing he's the third choice. Argh. I can't decide if I should be happy that they're interested in Iavaroni or furious because Nate McMillan is the roadblock.

True Hoop's Henry Abbott has a good take on the situation:

I'm sorry the Blazers have to go through this creepily unprofessional hiring ritual. Now the system is set up to make it clear to everyone that, should Marc Iavaroni become their head coach, we all know he was the second choice. They're starting him out damaged in the eyes of players and fans.

What do you think? I'm curious to hear from the readers on this one. I spent a few years in Seattle while McMillan was coach there, and wasn't impressed with much outside of his warddrobe. In any event, let me know some of your thoughts and I'll post the good responses on the site.

Martell Webster

Word is coming in that he wowed the Portland brass at his workout on Thursday, shooting the rock lights-out and drubbing Rashad McCants. Did you know that he's 6-7, 235 by the way? A quote from John Nash:

“What we learned today is that Martell Webster is capable of defending (shooting guards) at a very high level. (His) defense was very good and his ability to dribble the ball against pressure — he can dribble the ball low to the floor — was very impressive. He certainly is under consideration at three (selection).”

Under consideration at the 3? That sounds like posturing to me. I'm sure Webster is a great player, but you don't have to take him at the three. Nash is just trying to keep everyone guessing, especially Gerald Green. The team knows that they can't take Webster at the three, so my suspicion is that they're trying to convince Green to work out with other players in order to get a comparison. Nonetheless, it's encouraging to hear he looked that good.

NBA Finals

We haven't spoken much about the NBA Finals on this site since they started. Overall, a fairly boring series -- not because of the low-scoring defensive style, but because we haven't yet had a close game. The Spurs have took the first two by 15 and 21 points, while Detroit ran away with game three by 17. We haven't had a game yet where both teams played great basketball and that's the most dissapointing of all. You have to give the Spurs some credit, though, they've jumped out to 2-0 leads in three consecutive series'.

As for game 4, I think it's another must-win for Detroit. You let the Spurs get up 3-1 and it's over. You know Tim Duncan will be looking for blood -- he's a notorious come-backer, meaning he has fantastic games following stinkers (and game 3 was a stinker). And for those of us who pay attention to this type of thing, the Pistons are actually favored by three points tonight.

Highlights from the game ...

• Mike Tirico's ensemble: bright blue blazer, pink shirt, pink and purple tie. Wow.
• To say that Magic Johnson struggles with the english language would be an insult to those who struggle with the english language. Ahmad Rashad mentions that the home teams are 3-0 in the series, Magic chimes in with the following: "Well, you know, it's been comfortable at both homes. But now it's time for the role players to step up after the stars be stars." (?)
• On a positive note, they finished the interview this way: Ahmad: "Magic, you will always be my man." Magic (screaming): "And you know you my man!" Glad we could be there for that.
• Duncan's first four touches on offense: sinks a turnaround, turns the ball over, turns the ball over, missed a jumper. So much for my prediction.
• At 8:05 left in the second quarter it was 34-17 Detroit, and they never looked back. Just a brutal game for the Spurs.

I still say the Spurs win in six. Why? No way they play three stinkers in a row, and coming home for game 6 ought to be a lift. The Pistons have made an impressive run in these middle two games, though, and you have to give them credit for climbing back into the series.

Nash Feeling a little Sensy Today

John Nash was on the defensive today.

First, regarding the rumors about John Lucas. Folks over at the Blazers' front office are vehemently denying that John Lucas was ever interviewed, or even a candidate for the job. The man to report this rumor (and admittedly, the only one to report it) was Jason Quick, who isn't known to make things up. BlazersBlog correspondent Lochi chimes in:

"Funny how they are now in full on denial after the news broke and roughly 100% of the people that heard it thought that it was a stupid choice. I don't want to say that Patterson and Nash have no clue what they doing, but Patterson and Nash have no clue what they are doing."

So make your own conclusion on that one.

The next item that Nash has got his panties in a bunch about is the whole Gerald Green/solo workout fiasco. Green's agent, Andrew Vye, remains insistent that Green only work out for Portland by himself, and not against other players. Nash isn't interested in seeing him work out by himself ... he wants to guage him against Rashad McCants and Martell Webster (arguably the second and third rated shooting guards in the draft). Will Portland call their bluff and not evaluate him or will they relent and work him out individually? A few quotes from the key players:

"I think he is a very high-level offensive player, I would like to be able to feel equally good about his ability to defend." -John Nash

"Everybody who has been paying attention over the last six to eight months knows Gerald can play and has superstar qualities. We have all figured out who can play basketball at this point. A 50-minute workout against middle-to-late first-round picks is not going to tell you anything about whether Gerald Green is going to be a superstar." " -Andrew Vye.

"I find it odd that John told me the only three players that he would use the third pick on were Chris Paul, Deron Williams and Gerald Green -- he told me that. And from a positional standpoint, he needed a two-guard, and all things being equal, he would use the pick on Gerald Green. But it strikes me as odd that none of those three players are coming in to work out for the Blazers." -Andrew Vye

"... it would be foolish of me if I did (that). Because the whole purpose of this process is to determine who the best player at three is. We are bringing in Martell and McCants for consideration at three . . . and in a perfect world, we would have (Green) go against Martell Webster because they are the two best high school players and it would have been a relatively fair test for both." -John Nash

"(Teams) four through 10 don't have any problem with the format I have set, no problem at all. It seems the Blazers are the only ones that have a problem. That being said, Gerald, myself, and Gerald's family -- we are all very much interested in playing for the Portland Trail Blazers. Gerald has talked about it a lot, about the makeup of the team and how he would fit in. I want to be clear in that I have an open-door policy with the Blazers, and I really like John and respect him as a GM. I have kept several dates open for revisits, and I will keep one of the dates open if (the Blazers) want to bring him in." -Andrew Vye

I'm inclined to agree with John Nash in this argument, and it's tough to read Vye's quotes without seeing the slimy side of being an agent show through. Clearly he wants the luxury of Green getting drafted by Portland but without the component of having to work out with other players for them. I hope the Blazers stick to their guns and tell Vye that if he wants Green to be considered, Green will have to work out with other players. But who knows? Clearly, Vye feels like Green has nothing to gain by working out against players who, in theory, are rated lower than he is. It's not an uncommon practice for agents to take that positions, but it's more difficult with High School players. Hopefully the two sides will reach some sort of middle ground. It'll be an interesting storyline to watch.

Four Things I've Learned Today

Not much concrete info flowing around Blazerland today, just a few tidbits and rumors. Getting right to the chase, here's what we've gathered in terms of current Blazer updates:

1. John Lucas Was Portland's Top Coaching Choice

And he turned the job down, pulling out of consideration for "personal reasons". What the hell is going on here. There are two things wrong with this scenario ... 1. Portland's top choice being a former retread coach who, despite being a really good guy (he works as a drug counselor in Atlanta), hasn't done much to merit another head-coaching stint. 2. That he turned it down. I'm upset that Portland would invest so much interest in a second-tier candidate, but I don't even know where to start with the fact that he pulled out. This distresses me on multiple levels.

2. There Are Three Remaining Candidates Left

And I'd guess the three left are Dwayne Casey, Marc Iavaroni and Nate McMillan. Why the obsession with Seattle's coaching staff? Casey would be a fantastic candidate, but everyone I've spoken with expects him to be offered the Minnesota job this week. Which leaves Iavaroni and McMillan. Iavaroni we've covered here before ... he's a bright young NBA mind, comes from a successful background and has done a wonderful job with Amare Stoudemire ... but Nate McMillan? Why, lord, do you bait our foolish GM with such silly lures? McMillan "wasn't known as Seattle's X's and O's guy", he was more of a player's coach who built his reputation on relationships. The guy was ready to get fired prior to this season. He's another Mo Cheeks!! Haven't we tried this before?

3. Gerald Green Probably Isn't Coming to Portland

After Portland requested that he come work out, his agent's reply was "only if there aren't any other players around". Which essentially means that all the team would get to do is watch him run around and shoot jumpers. And they're supposed to drop a top-ten pick on this guy based on that? After seeing tape of his high school games? No thanks. Proven college players can get away with that request much more than High School guys. Unsurprisingly, the team's response was "then don't bother coming". In some additional good news, it's becoming nearly a lock that Andrew Bogut and Marv Williams are getting drafted 1-2, meaning it's increasingly likely that Portland's best opportunity is trading its pick to a team interested in Chris Paul.

4. Phil Jackson is Returning to the Lakers

Yawn. They're still a crappy team.

Around the League

• Chad Ford's latest draft has Marvin Williams getting drafted #1, with Andrew Bogut going #2. This got me thinking: any chane that Bogut slides further than that? With Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Danny Granger and now Fran Vasquez (an impressive spanish power forward) impressing clubs at an alarming rate, it's not out of the realm of possibilities to see Bogut slide down into the 4-7 range. I can tell you that if I were an NBA GM, he'd be about 11th on my list. Nonetheless, pay attention to June 19th -- that's the day Williams brings his act to Milwaukee for a private workout and likely unseeds Bogut at the top.
• Dwayne Casey will be a great hire for the T-wolves. Casey's worked with Gary Payton extensively which will help him in reigning in Sam Cassell, and any hire that Minnesota makes will have KG's blessing. I still don't understand the firing of Saunders, but they're doing a nice job replacing him if Casey is indeed the choice.
• Rumors have Charlotte willing to trade the #5 and #13 pick for the #2 pick, but not for the #3 pick. What's the difference? Chris Paul is the end result either way. With Williams likely going #1 and the Bobcats already having Emeka Okafor, they sure aren't taking Bogut.
• I really hope the Knicks waste a first round pick on Channing Frye. He'll be an undersized center in the NBA, and will drive an already atrocious train-wreck of a team even farther down.
• Rashad McCants seems to be the toughest guy to figure out in terms of this draft. Each team that works him out acknowledges he's a top-ten talent player, but his checkered past has caused him to fall out of the lottery. Whoever does grab him will get tremendous value on their pick. Would it shock anyone if the Pacers, Nuggets or Grizzlies snatched him up between 17 and 20? All have sharp GM's known for shrewd moves such as that.
• It's rumored that Phil Jackson has requested specific personnel changes prior to agreeing to become the new Lakers coach. The team as constructed now is mediocre at best; you can bet that Jackson is pushing for the club to deal for some size. Chris Mihm was better than expected last year, but you aren't winning much with him as your starting center. Might they dangle Lamar Odom? It makes the most sense.
• Finally, a Blazer note. If Portland does end up trading down into the 5-10 range, I'd love to see them pick up Danny Granger. He's a Shawn Marion clone, and would be a perfect addition to a starting lineup of Telfair, Randolph, and Pryzbilla in two years. Granted it doesn't solve their shooting guard problems, but it makes Darius Miles expendable, which is starting to look like a good thing.

Chad Ford Spouting Paul Pierce Rumors

So I'm reading that Chad Ford claims that Portland and Boston have discussed a deal that would send Nick Van Exel and the #3 pick to Boston for Paul Pierce.

I don't believe this rumor to be true for a heartbeat, but I"ll indulge it for a moment.

I've never been a big fan of Paul Pierce. He dribbles too much, dominates the ball, and shoots too many threes. Not to mention that he doesn't play a lick of defense. Pierce has always seemed to play more like a 3 to me than a 2, but Ford seems to think that Pierce would play the 2 in Portland's lineup, which he would. If that were true, the team would look like this:

PG - Telfair, backup to be signed
SG - Pierce, Anderson, Monya
SF - Miles, Outlaw, Patterson, Krapper
PF - Randolph, (backup they draft in 2nd round?), Ratliff
C - Pryzbilla, Ratliff, Ha

That's a playoff team all the way. I guess I'd be excited about Pierce, I just dont' see the point in acquiring him. They'd be a playoff team but not a championship team. He's on the downside of his career and makes huge money. But, a friend pointed out today that he's very impressive "when he tries", which means there's Vince Carter potential with this deal. I suppose he'd be the best 2-guard we've had since Clyde the Glide. I just don't see that deal going down.

#3 Pick: What's happening?

Wow ... lots of rumors flying around about Portland's #3 draft choice. Nash told Kerry Eggers in today's Tribune that there is a "strong possibility" that he'll trade the pick. Let's tackle them one-at-a-time:

Rumor #1: Marvin Williams.

It's widely thought that Portland has its eye on Marvin Williams, and it's also widely thought that Andrew Bogut and Williams will be going 1-2 or 2-1 in the draft, so he won't be available. My opinion is, Bogut is garbage and Williams and Chris Paul are clearly the best two players in the draft. With Portland already locked into its point guard of the future, that leaves Williams as the only viable pick for this team with the #3. Hence, don't be surprised to see if Portland waits until draft day to see if Williams is available, and if he's not, for them to deal the pick and trade down.

Rumor #2: High-School Phenom

Gerald Green and Martell Webster, both swingmen (although Green is projected as more of a "3" while Webster is more of a pure shooter), have established themselves as the class of this year's high-school entries. Portland is working out both players next week. Webster is projected as a mid- to late-lottery pick (8-15 range) and would be a bit of a stretch at the #3. Green is projected as a 5-10 pick, and though not as big of a leap, would probably be early at the #3 -- especially with so many teams interested in Paul. There's an outside chance Portland could select Green, but I don't expect Portland to select either of these two with the #3 pick; it's more likely he'd become the team's top choices if the club trades down.

Rumor #3: Trade with Toronto

There are two "versions" of this reported trade: In the first, Portland gives Toronto the #3 pick in exchange for the #7 and #16 picks in the draft. In the second, Portland gives Toronto the #3 pick and Darius Miles for Morris Peterson, the #7, and the #16 pick. Both of these deals are attractive to Portland because, assuming that Marvin Williams does indeed get selected in the top-two, it makes more sense for Portland to move down, select Green or Webster (in this case likely Webster) and collect more assets. As for moving Darius Miles, while it's true we'd all like to see how he performs under a different coach, getting out of his contract is a plus and Peterson can fill in at either the 2 or the 3 for the next few seasons while Portland's younger guys develop. As for the #16 pick, this would be a fantastic place for the team to grab a guy like Hakim Warrick (whom they worked out on Monday and were very impressed with) as yet another piece to build around.

Rumor #4: Trade with Charlotte

In this deal, Portland would send the #3 pick to Charlotte in exchange for the #5 and #12 picks. It's doubtful that Charlotte would agree to this trade without receiving a player as part of the deal ... and Bobcats GM Bernie Bickerstaff said as much, claiming he'd like a young veteran in return. The Bobcats have enough cap room to take Darius Miles, and if Portland received both picks in return, you have to think they'd jump on that deal. The team could select both its SG (Green, Webster, Rashad McCants) and SF (Danny Granger, Warrick) of the future.

Rumor #5: Package Van Exel and the #3 pick for a veteran

Nash has repeatedly said that he imagines that a team looking for cap relief would find the #3 pick and Nick Van Exel's expiring contract both very attractive. For Portland to deal the #3 pick for a veteran, they'd have to get a top-flight player in return, likely at shooting guard. Might a team like Seattle, who is struggling to reach agreement with Ray Allen, have interest in a deal like this? Or a team like Phoenix, with restricted free agent Joe Johnson? I doubt Johnson is worth the #3, but if Portland can land a player like Allen or Michael Redd, they'd have to consider it.

With John Nash speaking so openly about trading the pick, that's got to be the favorite at this point. The Toronto trade seems to make a little more logistical sense than the Charlotte trade, although either would be great for Portland.

It's goign to be a very interesting three weeks until the draft, and we'll keep you updated as news progresses.

Blazers Coaching Update

My apologies on the lenght between posts ... work and travel have eaten up all of my time.

In a non-Blazer related note, I spent some time at Wrigley Field last week and had front-row seats next to the opposing dugout. Email me if you'd like a link to some pictures we took.

Anyhow, back to some Blazer news. The search for a coach is heating up, and it seems that the folks who aren't candidates are getting more press than the guys who are candidates. Nash was on Jim Rome last week and said he "hoped" to have a coach in place by the next two weeks (read: before the draft), and with the club being so tight-lipped about the process it's been tough to say if that will happen.

Rumors have had Portland offering the job to Flip Saunders, but he turned it down for several reported reasons, the foremost being that he wouldn't have had GM title and control. And Nash is now claiming that Saunders is out of the mix completely, which makes you think that he has in fact turned the job down. Additionally, Kerry Eggers wrote in today's paper that Phil Jackson, Larry Brown, Jim O'Brien, and Eric Musselman (one of this bogger's faves) are all not being considered. So who is? Here's what we're hearing.

1. Marc Iavaroni. Currently the top assistant with the Phoenix Suns, and credited with molding Amare Stoudemire into what he is today. Portland may have some competition from Detroit for Iavaroni's services if (when) Larry Brown leaves the team. He doesn't have any NBA head-coaching experience, but is well-regarded around the league and woudl be a solid hire -- especially considering that Portland's offense will run primairly through its PG and PF, much like Phoenix's.
2. Dwayne Casey. Currently the top assistant with Seattle. Casey is credited as being the team's X-and-O guy, while Nate McMillan is the motivation guy. This would be a fantastic hire for Portland, although rumors have the Sonics wanting to offer their job to Casey if they don't reach a contract agreement with McMillan -- so watch those negotiations closely. Casey has ties to Portland and is known for a high-pressure defensive scheme and an up-tempo offensive scheme.
3. Paul Silas. I'm confused by this candidate. Silas is essentially more in the mold of a Maurice Cheeks, where his relationship management is probably his strength moreso than in-game coaching. We've tried that once and it didn't work, why try again? Nonetheless, Silas will have the respect of the players, which I don't think Cheeks had.

I'd be excited with either of the first two candidates listed. Portland isn't winning a championship next season, so taking a younger coach who might be more willing to mold his style of play to the personnel on Portland's young, developing team, is an exciting probability.

Who is your preference? Email me here and I'll post the better reader responses on the site.

Update: Tuesday, 3:02 pm.

It appears that Scott Skiles hasn't been able to reach an agreement with the Bulls on a contract extension, and he and his agent are ending talks. Chicago has an option to pick up one more year on his deal ... if they aren't willing to commit long-term, do they want a lame-duck coach around? If Portland truly is looking for a teacher and a disciplinarian who focuses on defense, Skiles certainly fits that mold, and would undoubtedly get added to this list.

Blazers Land #3 Pick

As most of you have probably heard by now, the Blazers this evening defied the odds and landed the #3 pick in the NBA lottery draft. With the fifth-worst record in the NBA, Portland made a big jump, climbing two spots. The official draft order at the top:

1. Milwaukee
2. Atlanta
3. Portland

At first appearance, one would think that Milwaukee -- needing a big man -- would snatch up Andrew Bogut. Atlanta subsequently grabs PG Chris Paul, and Marvin Williams -- the multi-talented freshman from North Carolina (who nearly came out after high school last year) -- falls into Portland's lap. Given my personal opinion that Bogut doesn't have the skills to justify a top-ten pick and given that Portland already has a very talented point guard of the future in Sebastian Telfair, this would seem to be an ideal situation for Portland.

However, there's already been rampant speculation regarding what Portland will do with the pick. ESPN thinks Milwaukee may grab Williams. Mike Rice, at the Blazers' draft part, threw out the idea of trading the pick and Nick Van Exel to Milwaukee for Michael Redd. Kevin Pritchard indicated that the team had between "five and seven" players that they are interested in. John Nash stated that Portland had already received calls from teams interested in exploring a trade. He also said they would likely take the "best available player", regardless of position, although it's difficult to believe that the club would take Paul, and Nash is likely posturing. Regardless, Nash certainly has been given another very strong tool with which to further improve the team this offseason.

Here's a look at the past five #3 picks:

2004: Ben Gordon
2003: Carmelo Anthony
2002: Mike Dunleavy
2001: Pau Gasol
2000: Darius Miles

Personally, I find it difficult to believe that Portland would deal the pick. I imagine it'll come down to drafting either Williams, Bogut, or Gerald Green ... but we'll speculate more within the next few weeks.

Thoughts? Email us here. I'm curious to hear what some of you are thinking after today's good news.

Mo Cheeks hired by Philly

The Philadelphia 76ers today fired a perfectly good coach, Jim O'Brien, and replaced him with a horrible one, Mo Cheeks.

Not a huge surprise. O'Brien has had medium levels of success both in Philly and in Boston, but he never quite clicked with some of Philly's younger players and his defensive scheme never quite caught on. Although in his defense, when you've got no-D guys like AI, Webber, and Kyle Korver on your roster, I'm not sure what kind of a scheme would catch.

Nonetheless, I'd actually describe Philly as one of few situations where Cheeks is a fit. Not a good fit, but not a bad fit. Simply a "fit". We all know that Mo isn't a big X's and O's guy, and doesn't run many set plays. Philly isn't a big X's and O's team, who doesn't run many set plays either. Watching them over the last half of the season, it felt like the squad either ran "clear out for AI", "set up Kyle Korver for a three pointer", or "drop the ball down to Cwebb and watch him pound it into the ground." Philly will always be mediocre with AI and Cwebb leading the charge, and Mo Cheeks is the perfect coach to help drive them further into mediocrity.

Eastern Conference Finals

With the ass-whooping that Detroit delievered on Tuesday, I think it's safe to say that the Eastern Conference Finals are set (sorry, Indiana fans). With most of us being Blazer fans, you might not care (in that case skip down to the analysis of the team extending GM John Nash's contract below), but for those of us who do, let's take a quick look at it.

Both teams have a nice compliment of inside-outside players, and are clearly the class of the Eastern Conference. The way I see it, the entire series rests on two key components: 1. The health of Shaquille O'Neal's legs, and 2. The abillity of Tayshaun Prince to defend Dwayne Wade.

Clearly the Heat need Shaq to be at least 80% going into this series. He's had plenty of rest and is saying all of the right things, but until we see him back on the floor it's tough to assume that he'll be going full-board. The more variable component appears to be number two. Wade is on fire right now, and looks unguardable at times. Of course, we all thought that about Kobe Bryant last year, and the defense Prince played on Kobe was phenomenal. In fact, you can argue that he should have garenered some Finals MVP consideration for that alone. If Prince can lock down Wade the same way he locked down Kobe last year, you've got to think Detroit has a great chance to get past Miami.

Another item to watch in that series will be Ben Wallace on offense. With his inability to consistently hit a jumper, will Miami leave Shaq close to paint to assist on help-defense and leave Big Ben all alone near the elbow? Keep an eye on those aspects, as that could be the best series we see in these playoffs.

Portland Picks Up Option on Nash

As most of you have inevitably heard by now, the Blazers exercised their option on John Nash yesterday, bringing him back as the club's GM for another year.

This is very disappointing news. Portland just polished off its worst season in 30 years, and you don't make a change at the top? Granted, Nash walked into a bad situation two seasons ago -- but he's made the situation worse, not better. The Rasheed Wallace trade was a good one at the time, but he messed it up by not getting anything in return for Shareef at this year's trading deadline. Last season, he vastly overpaid both Zach Randolph and Darius Miles, when both would have been restricted free agents this coming offseason and the team could have matched any offer that either player received. And after this year, there's no way that either player would have received close to what Portland gave. He also vastly overpaid Theo Ratliff with his contract extension. I was in favor of extending Theo's deal ... but $48 million for a guy who has a history of injury problems and half-seasons of success? It seemed a bit much at the time.

At the press conference (which you can download the audio for from a link here), both Steve Patterson and John Nash touched on several topics. A few highlights:

• Nash didn't expect this to happen today, and he's "delighted to have to opportunity" to continue to the "job started in 2003 of cleaning up the roster and reducing the monstrous payroll."
• A reporter (I believe it was Canzano) asked Nash to grade himself, and he declined. That same reporter asked Patterson to grade Nash, and he also declined. That reporter followed up with a question to Patterson asking what part of Nash's performance did he think warranted bringing Nash back, and Patterson dodged that question as well.
• Nash stated that his "first order of business is finding a new head coach". Patterson goes on to mention that the team has complied a short list, but wouldn't say or answer any questions regarding who was on it. They did mention that they'd like to have the individual in place prior to the draft at the end of June.
• Once the team's draft position is firmed up, then they'll start working out possible lottery picks.

Furthermore, Chad Ford from ESPN.com took a question on the Blazers in his chat today:

Matt (san francisco): Chad, the Blazers picked up their option on their GM Steve Nash (ha) yesterday. After horrible moves such as overpaying Randolph, Miles, and Ratliff, and failing to improve the team at the trade deadline, some of us are upset. What's your take? THANKS!

Chad Ford: (12:47 PM ET ) Gotta love the Blazers. Nash had a tough job to do in Portland, but the bottom line was that he actually made things worse. I wouldn't take his re-signing as a good sign either. Who is giving Paul Allen advice these days?

The one positive spin we can all put on this is that the option Portland picked up is only for one year. Coincidently, Kiki Vandeweighe's contract as Denver's GM remains at one year as well. That's too far away to speculate, but one has to wonder, especially considering Patterson's statement that he'd like to involve ex-Blazers in the front office. As for Nash, the team obviously feels he's done something right. I disagree, and I find today's news quite depressing. Between Van Exel's contract, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, and what will likely be a top-5 draft pick, Nash has plenty to work with for this offseason to improve the club. He'd better work some magic because after this past season and the lack of improvement at the deadline, I'm not sure that the fans can take another session of passive movement.

update: (11:41 am)

After re-listening to the audio of the press conference, there was something else that Nash said that I wanted to touch on:

"I've gotten some very positive emails about the performance of the younger guys, people have been telling me that they're willing to have some patience and watch some of these young guys perform ... Obviously, some of the veteran players didn't live up to their contracts or perform at the level that they were expected to perform at. As a result, we're not as good of a team as we were maybe when those guys originally got here. But in the two years that I'm here, the one thing I couldn't have predicted when I got here was how much this organization and team would miss players like Pippen and Sabonis. Not just for their play on the floor but for what they
contributed in the way of leadership in the locker room. Now, with a much younger team ... we've got to find some leadership. And it may be that the leader of this team is a 19 year old point guard, but I'd like to get him some veteran help."

Clearly, he's looking to not bring in more youth, but rather provide some stable, veteran leadership. Does that point to the club trading its draft pick? Probably a stretch, but it's interesting to know that Nash is looking for veterans rather than more younger pieces. However, the team appears to have a tremendous amount of confidence in Sebastian Telfair, which is another good sign. It seems he'll have the reins next season.

The 2005 NBA Playoffs

A post on another hoops blog got me thinking ... why are there no good tv color men for basketball?

There are plenty of decent play-by-play guys, and they generally stay out of the way. But I get annoyed by almost every ex-coach or jock that ESPN and TNT roll out. Steve Kerr is alright, but Lenny Wilkens, Doug Collins, John Thompson, even Mike Fratello earlier in the year, were all HORRIBLE. Awful. At least Bill Walton has reached the "Dick Vitale" stage in his career where you blow off everything he says anyways and just seems happy to be there. But all of these guys are terrible. They've got a maddeningly strong flair for the obvious, don't give us any insight, and are typically full of themselves. I'd love to transplant Howard Cosell back from the dead to put a few of them in their place.

This does relate to the TrailBlazers ... in case you missed it, the Portland Tribune is reporting that Brian Wheeler will "likely" return to the Blazers' broadcasting team next season, but more importantly, Steve Jones' status with the team is undecided. The tribune quotes the following:

The TV analyst missed a number of Blazer games this season due to national commitments with ESPN and ABC, and he flies to Connecticut for ABC’s Sunday studio show each week. He may choose to end his long-standing relationship with the Blazers and stick with his national duties. One other factor: Blazer hierarchy is not thrilled with Jones’ frank and unbiased comments about the team, which is appreciated by this and many other listeners.

That's not good news. I've always enjoyed Steve Jones, for multiple reasons. It wasn't a surprise when NBC -- and then ABC -- snatched him up, and it's a shame we might not get to enjoy him as much next year, although it sounds like the Blazer front office may have something to do with that as well. If Jones is indeed replaced, here's hoping they don't bring in another cheerleader ... I'm not sure if we can take two Brian Wheeler's.

Webber denies story

In the least surprising announcement of the day, Chris Webber has denied that the story from the Daily News (which, as a commenter below noted is one step above the NY Post). This doesn't change anything about what type of player he is, but I will give him credit for this -- it's refreshing to hear a player acknowledge his own faults (registration required) rather than hold others accountable. I imagine he won't be leaving Philly any time soon. Webber essentially said that the problems he has are with himself not having the same ability last season as he's had in past seasons, not with anyone else.

Chris Webber wants out of Philly, other NBA items

Now that is funny. It doesn't necessarily have any Blazer ramifications, but it's worthy NBA news.

Anyone want to pay a slow, hobbled, injury-prone, mentally weak power forward who grinds downyour offense and demands the ball $63 million over the next threeyears? Yeah I didn't think so.

Is there a single team in the nba that he would be good for? You can make an argument that due to his contract, nobody would be a good fit. I doubt Webber would be willing to go to a bottom-feeder, so supposed for a moment only the teams in the playoffs are possibilities. There aren't really any good, playoff-caliber teams who play a slow half court game that don't already have a good power forward.

The three teams who play that style and are in the playoffs who come to mind immediately are Houston, San Antonio, and Detroit. Detroit clearly is out, they've got a glut of PF's with Wallace, Wallace, and McDyess. Houston already has Juwon Howard (who is ironically right about where Webber is these days - a big man with good hands who can board a but is mediocre on D and slows down any running you might want do do), and they don't have nearly enough assets to trade to get him, as Houston is one of the league's thinnest teams.

The Spurs could use a low post scorer like Webber, but then Duncan becomes a full time center, and Webber takes up too much space on the blocks for Timmy! to do his cutting-across-the-paint maneuvering. The Spurs are also a team built largely on cohesion, and Webber isn't exactly known as a big team-first guy.

Catching up on a few other things in the NBA:

-Blazer Coaching Rumors

There have been rumors circulating that Paul Allen met with Flip Saunders and offered him a five-year, $40 million contract. Wow. I've said since the search began that Flip would be a great guy to bring in and help right the ship, but that's an awfully large commitment to make to a guy who's won two playoff series' in 10 years of coaching. That is, if the rumors are true.

Personally, I hope the Blazers stay away from the Phil Jackson sweepstakes. We all know he's ending up with the Lakers, and only the Knicks are foolish enough to make public attraction's towards the Zen Master's way. Jackson wouldn't be right for Portland, and I doubt they'd be able to land him anyways.

-How about those Sonics?

Nobody gave them a chance; now they've won two straight games, are getting fantastic guard play, and have evened up the series. It's great to see Luke Ridnour doing things that we all saw him do for three years at U of O ... pushing the tempo, making fantastic passes and hitting clutch jumpers.

Catching up on the NBA Playoffs

We’re nearing the end of the first round, with two sweeps already completed and a few other series heating up. A few random thoughts over the weekend, with our first Playoff Power Rankings at the end...

• After Houston won the first two games of their series, I commented to a friend on email that “You know Dallas isn’t done in this series yet. Watching the play, you just get the feeling that we’ll be hearing a lot more from them before this series is over. Odds are that they win the next two games in Houston and bring everyone back down to earch.” Well, after seeing them win games three and four, I think they’re going to win the series. Houston’s performance at the end of game four – when they had several chances to win the game and were turning the ball over, making bad passes, and missing long jumpers – they don’t look like a confident club anymore and I wouldn’t be surprised if the series was over in six.
• Did anyone notice that it’s taken former Blazer Bonzi Wells one and a half seasons to wear out his welcome in Memphis? He missed the team’s shootaround on Sunday and didn’t play in the game. As a matter of fact, not only did he not play, he wasn’t even in the building, and it was a “mutual decision”, and TNT reported that it’s the culmination of an entire season’s worth of friction with Memphis coach Mike Fratello. In a more interesting note, former Blazer coach and current Clipper coach Mike Dunleavy called the Memphis-Phoenix game for TNT and it would have been nice to hear his thoughts on the situation, which he never provided, saying only “Bonzi played very well for me in Portland.” Disappointing considering that there was rumored friction between he and Bonzi when Dunleavy coached Portland. I believe that Bonzi only has one more year left on his deal, so he’ll be easy for Memphis to trade this offseason. And with Mike Miller around, they don’t really need him that much anyways.
• Speaking of Dunleavy, once you learn to ignore his annoying accent, he’s a very good color-man and I hope TNT uses him further as the playoffs progress.
• The “Phoenix Model for Success”: 1. Get a dominant low post big man. 2. Surround him with a fantastic lightning quick point guard and several excellent shooters. Look at Portland’s team … they’re halfway there. They've got the dominant low post scorerand the laser quick PG, now they need to find some shooters somewhere, and viola you have Phoenix v 2.0. Yes, I know it’s quite a stretch.
• Anyone else think that Cleveland could have put up a better fight against Miami in the first round of the playoffs? Only one of Miami’s four straight wins over New Jersey was even close, though it was nice to see Dick Jefferson back. Now the speculation for New Jersey will center around Jason Kidd and whether he’ll demand a trade this offseason. If New Jersey can land a decent big man (Theo Ratliff?), that may be enough to convince Kidd that the Nets can be competitive next year.
• I hope that Phil Jackson goes to either the Lakers or the Knicks, so he can be exposed as what he really is: a fraud who won championships by riding the coattails of MJ and Shaq.
• Watching San Antonio come out in game two and blow out the Nuggets was impressive, and a huge testament to Greg Popovich. You could tell they’d been reading some of the press, claiming Duncan was too hurt and San Antonio didn’t have the weapons to keep up with a hot Nuggets team. In one quarter they took control of the series and put into question all of that confidence that Denver had built up over the past three months. Now they’re up 2-1 with game 4 on Wednesday.
• Is there a more schizophrenic team in the playoffs than Indiana? I can’t figure this team out. The Celtics might be the worst three seed I can remember in the past ten years, by the way.
• Assuming that both West favorites win in the bottom half of the bracket, that second round Seattle-San Antonio match is interesting. I don’t think San Antonio will roll through them quite as easily as everyone seems to think, and here’s why: they’re a pretty good matchup. One theory says “stick Bruce Bown on Ray Allen, series over” … but I don’t buy it. San Antonio can definitely stick Bowen on ray allen and mitigate his damage, but actually Seattle has two things going for them: Ginobili isn't tall enough to guard Rashard Lewis (who developed a very nicelittle post game this year) so that could be problematic, and Ridnour is actually a decent matchup vs Tony Parker. Parker beats people with heady play and with quicks, not with muscle, and those are two areas that Ridnour can match up with him at. Rid struggles against bigger PG's who can push him out of the way, postup, and shoot over him (like we thought Bibby would be able to do), and Parker doesn't do any of that. Nnot that I think any of this means Seattle has a chance, it just means the series goes 5 or 6 games instead of 4.
• I think we’ve probably seen the best two games of Jerome James’ career. And if Brad Miller were 100% healthy, he wouldn’t have looked as good. And nothing is funnier than an athlete saying “I’m finally coming into my own” following two good games after being a disappointment for six years. James looks like a very good center now, but he's a free agent this offseason and has got "the next Mark Blount" written all over him.

And, finally, here are our Power Rankings, as of May 1st. These rankings include only playoff teams and do not take matchups into consideration.

1. Phoenix - Clearly playing the best basketball of anyone in the playoffs.
2. San Antonio - Back on track after opening game stumble.
3. Miami - Shaq will have a week to heel bruised thigh after sweep.
4. Detroit - Won't see how good they really are until series vs Miami.
5. Dallas - Nowitzki starting to put it togeter. They need Van Horn back to make noise.
6. Seattle - Looking better than most people thought vs Sacramento. Nice road win in game 4.
7. Houston - Surprisingly balanced. Yao needs to be great more often than good.
8. Chicago - Could be in trouble if they lose game 4.
9. Washington - Arenas & Jamison getting hot. Hughes could be key to series.
10. Sacramento - Defense looks terrible. Can they win a playoff game on the road?
11. Denver - Looking like they played over their heads in game 1. Must win game 4.
12. Indiana - Reggie making one last run, and got a great matchup for it.
13. Boston - Walker back for game 5. Winner of game 5 probably wins series.
14. Memphis - Never had a chance vs Phoenix; Suns do everything better.
15. Philadelphia - AI's best season not enough. Webber deal looks like a mistake.
16. New Jersey - Would have thought Carter/Kidd/Jefferson would be good for one win.

Cost-Per-Win

Quick note on a Friday morning ...

Portland's payroll this year was about $79 million, which had them clocking in at roughly third in the NBA. Or, 28th in the NBA if you want to view it the other way around. More importantly, they won 27 games, ranking fifth-worst in the NBA.

It doesn't take a mathematician to realize that a team who spends in the top 5 payrolls but finishes in the bottom-five win percentage isn't managing their money very well. In fact, you can make an argument that, despite haveing the fifth worst record, they were the third least-successful team in the NBA. Here's how.

A $79 million payroll divied by 27 wins means they paid about $2.9 million per win. Awful. But how does the rest of the league compare? Here's the NBA rank of the worst eight teams in the league, based on wins-to-payroll ratio. Check out the dropoff after the"big three" losers and how close the next five are:

1. Knicks $3.2M
2. Hawks $2.924M
3. Blazers $2.917M
4. Hornets $1.973M
5. Lakers $1.895M
6. Bucks $1.894M
7. Orlando $1.890M
8. Raptors $1.857M

Wow. Not only is Portland in top-three worst in the NBA, they're head-and-shoulders above the next worst team. Clearly, the Knicks/Hawks/Blazers trifecta are the three worst-managed team in the NBA, looking strictly at wins-per-payroll. At least we can take solace in one thing: Isaiah Thomas isn't our GM.

In case you're wondering, the best teams in the NBA are the Suns ($737k per win), Spurs ($794k), Nuggets ($892k) and Pistons ($970k).

One final note ... of the top 9 payrolls in the nba, only four made theplayoffs. But conversely, none of the four lowest payrolls in the NBA made the playoffs either. So you need to spend wisely, but you can't be a total miser.

Enjoy the playoffs this weekend.

(And thanks to Andrew at All That Jazz for compiling some of this data).

Western Conference Playoffs Preview!

Let the games begin. This Saturday, the 2005 NBA Playoffs will kick off, and looking at this year’s playoffs we’ve got some very interesting matchups. For the second consecutive year, the playoffs will not include the Portland Trail Blazers. We'll have more on them once the playoffs get started. For now, clearly Phoenix and San Antonio – the league’s two class teams all season – have established themselves as the favorites in the West. Will it all come down to those two in the Conference Finals? Or can another team sneak in? Let’s take a closer look at the first round.

First, we’ll give a quick analysis of what we look at as the “big six” components that a team needs for playoff success: 1. Home court advantage, 2. Best star player, 3. Most playmakers, 4. Quality starting five, 5. Toughest defense, and 6. Playoff experience. Who has the advantage in each category? Next comes a quick breakdown. Without further ado:

#1 vs #8 – Phoenix vs Memphis
Home court: Phoenix
Best star: Phoenix (Nash over Gasol)
Most playmakers: Phoenix (Nash, Stoudamire, Marion over Gasol & Miller)
Starting 5: Phoenix
Toughest D: Memphis
Experience: (neither)

Probably the easiest series of the four to predict. Phoenix has been the best team in the league all season, has the best starting five in the NBA, and Memphis is sliding, big-time. The Grizz don’t have anything to stop – or even counteract – Amare Stoudamire in the middle or Steve Nash on the perimeter, as Stromile Swift has been a bit of a disappointment this season and Jason Williams doesn’t have the quicks on D to stop Nash. The one advantage Memphis may have is their dearth of perimeter guys … with Mike Miller, Bonzi Wells, and Jason Williams all able to J it up when they get hot, and Phoenix isn’t exactly a team of lock-down defenders. Don’t expect that to be enough to make the series close, though, as we haven’t even mentioned Quentin Richardson or Joe Johnson yet.

Prediction: Phoenix, 4-0.

#4 vs #5 – Dallas vs Houston
Home court: Dallas
Best star: Dallas (Dirk Nowitzki)
Most playmakers: Dallas (Nowitzki, Finley over McGrady, Ming)
Starting 5: Dallas
Toughest D: Houston
Experience: Dallas

Many prognosticators are expecting the Rockets to push Dallas to the brink … but I’ll be honest, I don’t see it. Tracy McGrady has looked fantastic in the second half of the season, but Dirk is showing the world that he can be THE man on the Mavs and is a top-3 candidate for the MVP this season. Yao Ming is developing a nice inside game and his feel for rebounding is getting better, but can he dominate Eric Dampier? We don’t think so. Jeff Van Gundy has the Rockets in the right direction, but they’re still a piece (or a Yao Ming mean streak) away. Between Dallas’ home court advantage, experience, and balanced offense, they should roll by Houston fairly easily.

Prediction: Dallas, 4-2.

#2 vs #7, San Antonio vs Denver
Home court: San Antonio
Best star: San Antonio (Duncan over Anthony)
Most playmakers: San Antonio (Duncan, Ginobili, Parker over Anthony, Martin, Miller)
Starting 5: Denver
Toughest D: San Antonio
Experience: San Antonio

Not as tough of a call as it would initially appear. Yes, Denver has been the league’s best team since the All-Star break, experiencing the biggest turnaround in one season that we’ve seen in a long time. Yes, Carmelo Anthony looks like an all-star again. But the Spurs have been on cruise control for the past month, Ginobili proved he’s a top-20 player in the NBA, and Duncan is finally healthy. As good as Marcus Camby has looked – arguably the most important reason along with Anthony’s willingness to give up ballhandling responsibilities for Denver’s turnaround – he can’t stop Tim Duncan and probably wont’ be 100% for the series. I expect San Antonio to avoid a seventh game with a big win in Denver in game 6.

Prediction: San Antonio, 4-2.

#3 vs #6, Seattle vs Sacramento
Home court: Seattle
Best star: Seattle (Allen over Stojakovic)
Most playmakers: Seattle (Allen, Lewis over Stojakovic, Bibby)
Starting 5: Sacramento
Toughest D: Sacramento
Experience: Sacramento

The only series that I see going to a potential seven games. Normally, you’d expect Sacramento to have the advantage in the paint with Brad Miller’s impressive post/passing combo game. However, Miller is hurt, and so is Stojakovic. Both will be playing, and starting, during the series, but neither will be 100% and I expect that to affect the Kings significantly. Sacramento’s got more balance and better depth, along with a ton of playoff experience, but ultimately I expect Seattle’s plethora of shooters (they’ve got more than anyone in the league … Allen, Ridnour, Radmanovic, Lewis, Murray) and home-court advantage to carry them through for the series win.

Prediction: Seattle, 4-3.

That’s it for now! We’ll be back after the first round with additional predictions for round two. What do you think? Feel free to critique these predictions via email here. The most interesting will get posted online.